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← Back to GamesOct 5, 2024Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Oregon by 27.4

Home Win Probability

Oregon 94%

Market (Bovada)

Oregon -22.5

Edge: Oregon -22.5 (4.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 5, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Michigan StateMichigan State
0001010
OregonOregon
7143731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-021-024-031-031-731-10
OregonMichigan State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREPUNT32ydTO865ydTO1079ydPUNT30ydTD775ydPUNT317ydTO573ydPUNT419ydTD755ydPUNT517ydTD1273ydEND1-1ydPUNT820ydFG948ydPUNT33ydTD1564ydTD775ydPUNT3-2ydFG1145ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan State and Oregon
StatisticMichigan StateOregon
Passing15-2221-34
Pass Yards191264
Rush Yards59213
Total Yards250477
Turnovers12
3rd Down2-116-12
Penalties5-415-35
Possession29:0230:58

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan State
passing
Aidan Chiles
10/17, 154 YDS
rushing
Kay'Ron Adams
9 CAR, 32 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Nick Marsh
3 REC, 58 YDS
defense
Oregon
passing
Dillon Gabriel
20/32, 257 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Jordan James
24 CAR, 166 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tez Johnson
10 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ross James punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 35

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 33

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.83

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 13 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 7 yds to the ORE 47

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.23

Nate Carter run for no gain to the ORE 47

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the ORE 46

4th & 2Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.23

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 37 yds to the ORE 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -5.79

Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by ORE Jordan Burch

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +3.25

Jordan James run for 41 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 40

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.40

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 11 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Charles Brantley) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.80

Jordan James run for 18 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+4 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (Ben Roberts) to the MSU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Jordan James run for 1 yd to the MSU 4

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jordan James run for 3 yds to the MSU 1

3rd & 1Interception0 ydsPPA -4.55

Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.96

Aidan Chiles sacked by Derrick Harmon for a loss of 11 yards to the MSU 9

2nd & 21Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the MSU 14

3rd & 16Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the MSU 20

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 55 yds , Tez Johnson returns for no gain to the ORE 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 2 yds to the ORE 27

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.77

Jordan James run for 13 yds to the ORE 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.09

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 37 yds to the MSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the MSU 16

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Jordan James run for 2 yds to the MSU 14

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.20

Jordan James run for 5 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Dillon Gabriel run for 9 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Woods,Ed) 15 yards from ORE35 to ORE50. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+5 yds

Atticus Sappington kickoff for 34 yds , Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams return for 5 yds to the MSU 21

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

PENALTY ORE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnson,Tysheem) 15 yards from MSU21 to MSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 38

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MSU 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORE 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+62 ydsPPA +3.93

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 62 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Jordan James run for 9 yds to the MSU 13

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan James run for 4 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the MSU 6

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU05 (Denson Jr.,Justin; Spencer,Malik) PENALTY ORE Illegal Formation (Cornelius,Ajani) 5 yards from MSU06 to MSU11. NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.14

Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Charles Brantley return for no gain to the MSU 2

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.32

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 12 yds to the MSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 16

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 5 yds to the MSU 21

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.18

Jordan James run for 17 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.43

Jordan James run for 15 yds to the MSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the MSU 17

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Noah Whittington run for no gain to the MSU 17

3rd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Dillon Gabriel run for 12 yds to the MSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Jordan James run for 2 yds to the MSU 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Jordan James run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Boyle KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.46

Aidan Chiles run for 10 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Nate Carter run for 10 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Aidan Chiles run for no gain to the MSU 32

2nd & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 29

3rd & 13Sack0 ydsPPA -0.15

Aidan Chiles sacked by Jordan Burch for 0 yards to the MSU 29

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 27

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY ORE False Start (Laloulu,Iapani) 5 yards from ORE27 to ORE22. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordan James run for 3 yds to the ORE 25

2nd & 12Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.34

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 17 yds to the ORE 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jordan James for 4 yds to the ORE 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the MSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.66

Jordan James run for 15 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.21

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 11 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Noah Whittington for 4 yds to the MSU 15

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.59

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.01

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Evan Stewart for 9 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

A. Chiles takes a knee

0th & 10End of Half-1 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 6 yds to the MSU 31

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.09

Aidan Chiles run for 10 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the MSU 47

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.03

Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Aidan Chiles sacked by Jordan Burch for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 45

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 20

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the ORE 21

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.25

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the ORE 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Jordan James run for 6 yds to the ORE 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.76

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the ORE 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.41

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 20 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the MSU 32

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+50 yds

Andrew Boyle 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Atticus Sappington kickoff for 63 yds , Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams return for 13 yds to the MSU 15

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Nick Marsh run for 6 yds to the MSU 9 Nick Marsh fumbled, recovered by MSU Nick Marsh

2nd & 16Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.55

Aidan Chiles run for 14 yds to the MSU 23

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game (Chiles,Aidan) 5 yards from MSU23 to MSU18. NO PLAY.

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+6 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 52 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 6 yds to the ORE 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Jordan James run for 2 yds to the ORE 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.03

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 13 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan James run for 4 yds to the MSU 45

3rd & 6Penalty0 yds

(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete deep middle to Johnson,Tez thrown to MSU20 PENALTY ORE Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting MSU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Penalty0 yds

(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon sacked for loss of 0 yards to the MSU45 (Bogle,Khris) PENALTY MSU Offside offsetting ORE Illegal Shift offsetting. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.01

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the MSU 35

2nd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.97

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 17 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jordan James run for no gain to the MSU 18

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.42

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 9 yds to the MSU 9

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.89

Jordan James run for 3 yds to the MSU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Penalty+4 yds

(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass incomplete short right to Ferguson,Terrance thrown to MSU00 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Spencer,Malik) 4 yards from MSU06 to MSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jordan James run for no gain to the MSU 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordan James run for 1 yd to the MSU 1

3rd & 1Rush+1 yds

Jordan James run for 1 yd to the MSU 2

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.85

Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tez Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.54

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 10 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.43

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 35 yds to the ORE 30 for a 1ST down Oregon Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.20

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 10 yds to the ORE 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.30

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 12 yds to the ORE 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty+7 yds

Oregon Penalty, Chop Block (Teitum Tuioti) to the ORE 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jayden Limar run for 5 yds to the ORE 20

2nd & 15Penalty-10 yds

PENALTY ORE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Pellum,Ryan) 10 yards from ORE20 to ORE10. NO PLAY.

2nd & 25Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.02

Dante Moore pass complete to Jurrion Dickey for 7 yds to the ORE 17

3rd & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Dante Moore run for 6 yds to the ORE 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Luke Dunne punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds to the MSU 38

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 40

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MSU 40

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.27

Tommy Schuster run for 5 yds to the MSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.30

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Velling for 20 yds to the ORE 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Nate Carter for 3 yds to the ORE 32

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.57

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 12 yds to the ORE 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Velling for no gain to the ORE 20

2nd & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.48

Tommy Schuster sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the ORE 31

3rd & 21Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Nick Marsh for 7 yds to the ORE 24

4th & 14Field Goal Good+42 yds

Jonathan Kim 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Oregon Penalty, Roughing The Kicker (Yards) declined

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

D. Moore takes a knee

Situational Analysis

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
55%
22 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Oregon

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
48%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
55%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays