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← Back to GamesSep 28, 2024Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ohio State by 9.2

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 24%

Market (Bovada)

Michigan State +23.5

Edge: Michigan State +23.5 (14.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Ohio StateOhio State
32114038
Michigan StateMichigan State
07007

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-30-107-177-247-317-38
Michigan StateOhio State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSMSOSMSOSMSOSMSMSOSMSOSFG1163ydDOWNS755ydTD1480ydTO564ydTO424ydTD112ydTD475ydTO959ydPUNT37ydPUNT3-2ydTD660ydEND2-6ydPUNT56ydTD1376ydTO314ydTD312ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT624ydPUNT616ydPUNT3-2ydDOWNS49ydEND332ydPUNT833yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Ohio State and Michigan State
StatisticOhio StateMichigan State
Passing26-4016-25
Pass Yards298199
Rush Yards18547
Total Yards483246
Turnovers13
3rd Down8-172-9
Penalties4-402-19
Possession35:4324:17

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Ohio State
passing
Will Howard
21/31, 244 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
TreVeyon Henderson
7 CAR, 69 YDS
receiving
Emeka Egbuka
7 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Michigan State
passing
Aidan Chiles
13/19, 167 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kay'Ron Adams
9 CAR, 35 YDS
receiving
Jaron Glover
4 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for a loss of 4 yards to the OSU 21

2nd & 14Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.25

Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 4 yds to the MSU 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.08

Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 13 yds to the MSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the MSU 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 7 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.13

Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 12 yds to the MSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Ohio State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the MSU 21

2nd & 21Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 5 yds to the MSU 16

3rd & 16Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Will Howard run for 4 yds to the MSU 12

4th & 12Field Goal Good+30 yds

Jayden Fielding 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Nate Carter run for 19 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the OSU 48

2nd & 2Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.62

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 19 yds to the OSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.97

Aidan Chiles sacked by Sonny Styles for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 32

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Nate Carter run for 4 yds to the OSU 28

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 8 yds to the OSU 20

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.64

Aidan Chiles run for no gain to the OSU 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OSU 27

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.05

TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.48

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 8 yds to the OSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the OSU 39

3rd & 4Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.86

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 19 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.68

Will Howard pass complete to Aaron Scott Jr. for 7 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Malik Spencer) to the MSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MSU 18

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MSU 15

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.53

Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the MSU 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Will Howard pass incomplete

4th & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.92

Gee Scott Jr. 3 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 9 yds to the MSU 34

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.80

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 24 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Nate Carter run for no gain to the OSU 37

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+26 ydsPPA -3.20

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 26 yds Jack Velling fumbled, recovered by OSU Sonny Styles S. Styles return for 8 yds

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.39

Quinshon Judkins run for 18 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the OSU 43

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Interception Return+36 ydsPPA -1.15

Will Howard pass intercepted Jordan Turner return for 36 yds to the OSU 12

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 20 yds to the OSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(09:21) HOWARD, Will pass short to the right complete for 2 yards to HENDERSON, TreVeyon caught at the OSU47 and advanced to the OSU47, out of bounds, clock 09:15. PENALTY OSU Holding on SCOTT JR., Gee enforced 10 yards from the OSU45 to the OSU35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+37 ydsPPA +3.66

TreVeyon Henderson run for 37 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.67

Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the MSU 19

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.09

Jeremiah Smith run for 19 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nate Carter run for no gain to the MSU 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.37

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 15 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.78

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 25 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the OSU 28

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.08

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 5 yds to the OSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.25

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the OSU 16

3rd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -4.17

Aidan Chiles run for no gain to the OSU 16 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by OSU Jack Sawyer J. Sawyer return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OSU 20

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 3 yds to the OSU 23

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Will Howard run for no gain to the OSU 23

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Joe McGuire punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 35

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the MSU 40

2nd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.81

Aidan Chiles sacked by JT Tuimoloau for a loss of 6 yards to the MSU 34

3rd & 11Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.29

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 33

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 27 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.47

Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 16 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +0.83

Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 27 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +3.32

Devin Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-4 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Aidan Chiles) to the MSU 21

2nd & 14Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.22

(00:03) Kneel down by MSU at MSU19 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

0th & 14End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.29

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 8 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.55

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 31

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty+17 yds

CHILES, Aidan scrambles to the left for a gain of 17 yards to the MSU31 (IGBINOSUN, Davison), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY MSU Holding on LYNCH-ADAMS, Kay'Ron OSU Holding on STYLES JR., Lorenzo , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt+10 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 55 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 10 yds to the OSU 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OSU 31

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the OSU 33

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.02

Will Howard run for 3 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the OSU 37

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the OSU 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the OSU 45

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.06

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the OSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(07:43) HENDERSON, TreVeyon rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the OSU47 (HALADAY, Cal), clock 07:37. PENALTY OSU Holding on TSHABOLA, Tegra enforced 10 yards from the OSU46 to the OSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.74

Caleb Downs run for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 42 Will Howard fumbled, recovered by OSU TreVeyon Henderson T. Henderson return for 9 yds

2nd & 14Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.06

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 20 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the MSU 33

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Will Howard pass incomplete

4th & 5Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +4.81

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 33 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 11 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 39

2nd & 7Pass Interception Return+31 ydsPPA -1.44

Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Denzel Burke return for 31 yds to the MSU 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 2 yds to the MSU 10

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MSU 6

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.72

Will Howard run for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.18

Aidan Chiles sacked by Mitchell Melton for a loss of 8 yards to the MSU 17

2nd & 18Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.07

Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 18

3rd & 17Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 24

4th & 11Punt+9 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 58 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 9 yds to the OSU 27

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

James Peoples run for 3 yds to the OSU 30

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Devin Brown pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.50

Devin Brown pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 14 yds to the OSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

James Peoples run for 4 yds to the OSU 48

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

James Peoples run for 3 yds to the MSU 49

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Devin Brown pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Joe McGuire punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 15

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 8 yds to the MSU 23

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MSU 24

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.76

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Tommy Schuster sacked by C.J. Hicks and Mitchell Melton for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 26

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

3rd & 12Penalty+5 yds

Ohio State Penalty, Offsides (Mitchell Melton) to the MSU 31

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Brandon Tullis run for 1 yd to the MSU 10

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.23

Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 7

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds, downed at the OSU 43

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

James Peoples run for 5 yds to the OSU 48

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

James Peoples run for 4 yds to the MSU 48

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.18

James Peoples run for no gain to the MSU 48

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.30

Julian Sayin pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Ademola Faleye for 4 yds to the OSU 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.29

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jaelen Smith for 16 yds to the OSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 12 yds to the OSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

James Peoples run for 2 yds to the OSU 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Devin Brown pass complete to Bryson Rodgers for 5 yds to the OSU 33

3rd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.14

Devin Brown pass complete to Bryson Rodgers for 12 yds to the OSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

James Peoples run for 6 yds to the MSU 49

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.54

Devin Brown pass complete to Bennett Christian for 6 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

James Peoples run for 4 yds to the MSU 39

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.45

James Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 41

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Joe McGuire punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 9

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Julian Sayin pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Ohio State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
44%
27 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
38%
8 plays
56%
9 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
29%
7 plays
67%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
22 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play