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← Back to GamesSep 14, 2024Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 21.9

Home Win Probability

Michigan 90%

Market (Bovada)

Michigan -21.5

Edge: Michigan -21.5 (0.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 14, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Arkansas StateArkansas State
0301518
MichiganMichigan
7140728

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-321-328-328-1028-18
MichiganArkansas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ASMICASMICASMICASMICASMICASMICASMICASMICASMICASMICASMICMISS1351ydTD1176ydPUNT30ydTO317ydFG46ydTD1375ydPUNT3-3ydTD455ydPUNT35ydTO449ydMISS1058ydPUNT622ydPUNT725ydTO418ydTO616ydTD980ydPUNT37ydPUNT416ydTD964ydPUNT37ydTD1175ydEND10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas State and Michigan
StatisticArkansas StateMichigan
Passing26-4413-18
Pass Yards222134
Rush Yards58301
Total Yards280435
Turnovers13
3rd Down7-199-12
Penalties3-257-69
Possession25:3634:24

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas State
passing
Jaylen Raynor
19/33, 140 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Devin Spencer
7 CAR, 28 YDS
receiving
Reggie Harden
3 REC, 52 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Michigan
passing
Davis Warren
11/14, 122 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
Kalel Mullings
15 CAR, 153 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Marlin Klein
3 REC, 43 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 1 yd to the ARST 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.25

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 43

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

(13:09) RAYNOR, Jaylen scrambles to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the AKS47 (HILL, Jyaire;HAUSMANN, Ernest), clock 13:00. PENALTY AKS Holding on NDOMA-OGAR, EJ enforced 10 yards from the AKS43 to the AKS33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 17Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.39

Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 30

3rd & 20Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.85

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 11 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST down Michigan Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ernest Hausmann) to the MICH 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the MICH 44

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -1.99

Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 49 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor J. Raynor return for 0 yds

3rd & 15Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.47

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 16 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 4 yds to the MICH 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 4 yds to the MICH 25

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the MICH 24

4th & 1Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Clune Van Andel 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 25

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

Michigan Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 20

2nd & 14Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.95

Semaj Morgan run for 13 yds to the MICH 33

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.83

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Davis Warren run for 1 yd to the MICH 35

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 39

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.17

Davis Warren pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 8 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Davis Warren sacked by Ian Jeffries for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 46

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the ARST 49

3rd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.40

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the ARST 30

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.77

Kalel Mullings run for 30 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Cedric Hawkins run for no gain to the ARST 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ryan Heicher punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 22

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the MICH 30

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.57

Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+30 ydsPPA -2.14

Davis Warren pass intercepted Charles Willekes return for 30 yds to the MICH 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 6 yds to the MICH 9

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Malik Hornsby run for no gain to the MICH 9

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+27 yds

Clune Van Andel 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the MICH 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.90

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 5 yds to the ARST 48

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the ARST 44

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.95

Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.36

Davis Warren sacked by Jayden Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 47

2nd & 17Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the ARST 39

3rd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.19

Davis Warren pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 17 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the ARST 13

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.18

Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 2 yds to the ARST 29

3rd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.49

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Ernest Hausmann for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Ryan Heicher punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the ARST 48

2nd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.65

Davis Warren pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 13 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +1.09

Kalel Mullings run for 30 yds to the ARST 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the ARST 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 3 yds to the ARST 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ryan Heicher punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 20

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(01:55) WARREN, Davis pass up the middle complete for 20 yards to LOVELAND, Colston caught at the UOM35 and advanced to the UOM40 (JOYNER, Dontay), clock 01:50. PENALTY Before the snap, UOM Illegal Formation on LOVELAND, Colston enforced 5 yards from the UOM20 to the UOM15. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Davis Warren pass complete to Marlin Klein for 7 yds to the MICH 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.27

Davis Warren pass complete to Marlin Klein for 33 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.63

Benjamin Hall run for 14 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.16

Davis Warren pass intercepted Trevian Thomas return for no gain to the ARST 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 1 yd to the ARST 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.06

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 18 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.20

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.95

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 18 yds to the MICH 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

Michigan Penalty, Offsides (Fredrick Moore) to the MICH 25

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 30

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 6 yds to the MICH 24

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 3 yds to the MICH 21

4th & 1Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Clune Van Andel 38 yd FG MISSED

0th & 1End of Half-58 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Clayton Amaya kickoff for 61 yds , Keshaun Harris return for 13 yds to the MICH 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the MICH 24

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.84

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 23

3rd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.75

Davis Warren run for 13 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(12:51) EDWARDS, Donovan rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the UOM43 (HAM, Marvin), clock 12:48. PENALTY UOM Holding on LINK, Evan enforced 10 yards from the UOM36 to the UOM26 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.36

Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 24

2nd & 22Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 28

3rd & 18Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.29

Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 11 yds to the MICH 39

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 16

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the ARST 19

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 6 yds to the ARST 25

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.72

Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 13 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(08:17) SPENCER, Devin rush to the left for no gain to the AKS41 (HAUSMANN, Ernest), clock 08:14. PENALTY AKS Holding on BAYER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the AKS41 to the AKS31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 20Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.20

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for no gain to the ARST 31

3rd & 20Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.23

Jaylen Raynor run for 10 yds to the ARST 41

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ryan Heicher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 10

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 11

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.31

Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the MICH 19

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.92

Kalel Mullings run for 9 yds to the MICH 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+14 ydsPPA -1.14

Davis Warren pass intercepted Dontay Joyner return for 14 yds to the MICH 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the MICH 34

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 8Penalty+14 yds

(03:29) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for STEVENSON JR., Manny broken up by JOHNSON, Quinten at the UOM5, clock 03:22. PENALTY UOM Face mask on MOORE, Derrick enforced 14 yards from the UOM34 to the UOM20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.54

Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted, touchback. Makari Paige return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 21

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the MICH 27

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.17

Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the MICH 32

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the MICH 38

3rd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.46

Alex Orji run for 13 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the ARST 47

2nd & 8Rush+38 ydsPPA +1.95

Kalel Mullings run for 38 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Alex Orji pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 9 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 3 yds to the ARST 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ryan Heicher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 19

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.66

Alex Orji run for 10 yds to the MICH 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Benjamin Hall run for 5 yds to the MICH 34

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Benjamin Hall run for 1 yd to the MICH 35

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Alex Orji pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 29 yds, downed at the ARST 36

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Timmy McClain run for 5 yds to the ARST 41

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Timmy McClain pass complete to Adam Jones for 11 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Timmy McClain pass complete to Reginald Harden Jr. for 6 yds to the MICH 36

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Devin Spencer run for 9 yds to the MICH 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the MICH 24

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.89

Timmy McClain pass complete to Reginald Harden Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Alex Orji pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Alex Orji pass complete to Marlin Klein for 3 yds to the MICH 28

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Alex Orji run for 4 yds to the MICH 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Timmy McClain pass complete to Tennel Bryant for 9 yds to the ARST 34

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Mike Sharpe II run for 3 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Mike Sharpe II run for 8 yds to the ARST 45

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.53

Timmy McClain pass complete to Mike Sharpe II for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Timmy McClain pass complete to Malik Hornsby for 5 yds to the MICH 45

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the MICH 43

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

4th & 3Penalty+15 yds

(00:37) MCCLAIN, Timmy pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SUMMERS, Hunter thrown to the UOM20, clock 00:33. PENALTY UOM Roughing the Passer on NICHOLS, Dominic enforced 15 yards from the UOM43 to the UOM28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Timmy McClain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the MICH 22

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +3.10

Timmy McClain pass complete to Reginald Harden Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (T. McClain Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

(00:08) [SG] Kneel down by ORJI, Alex at UOM25 (team loss of 0), clock 00:06.

Situational Analysis

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
5 plays
56%
16 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
4th

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
48%
27 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
8 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th