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← Back to GamesAug 30, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Minnesota by 0.5

Home Win Probability

Minnesota 48%

Market (Bovada)

Minnesota +2

Edge: Minnesota +2 (2.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 30, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
076619
MinnesotaMinnesota
0140317

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-714-714-1014-1317-1617-19
MinnesotaNorth Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINNCMINPUNT33ydDOWNS720ydPUNT38ydPUNT33ydMISS1352ydTD980ydPUNT3-3ydTO10ydTD26ydPUNT3-1ydTD965ydEND3-4ydFG1770ydPUNT31ydFG1249ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT34ydTO220ydFG4-2ydFG1063ydFG648ydMISS746yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Carolina and Minnesota
StatisticNorth CarolinaMinnesota
Passing14-2313-22
Pass Yards105166
Rush Yards14778
Total Yards252244
Turnovers11
3rd Down8-164-12
Penalties3-456-50
Possession30:3129:29

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Carolina
passing
Max Johnson
12/19, 71 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Omarion Hampton
30 CAR, 129 YDS
receiving
J.J. Jones
3 REC, 52 YDS
defense
Minnesota
passing
Max Brosmer
13/21, 166 YDS
rushing
Marcus Major
20 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Daniel Jackson
4 REC, 55 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Max Brosmer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Daniel Jackson run for 3 yds to the MINN 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Max Brosmer pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 48 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for no gain to the UNC 49

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MINN 48

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 3 yds to the MINN 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.64

Max Johnson pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Max Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the MINN 32

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MINN 31

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.63

Max Johnson pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Marcus Major run for 7 yds to the MINN 38

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Marcus Major run for no gain to the MINN 38

3rd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Max Brosmer pass complete to Jordan Nubin for 1 yd to the MINN 39

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 58 yds, downed at the UNC 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 5

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.14

Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the UNC 6

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Max Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tom Maginness punt for 55 yds, downed at the MINN 39

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Marcus Major run for no gain to the MINN 39

2nd & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.29

Max Brosmer sacked by Jahvaree Ritzie for a loss of 9 yards to the MINN 30

3rd & 19Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.33

Max Brosmer pass complete to Jordan Nubin for 19 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

(05:48) BROSMER, Max pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel broken up by ALLEN, Marcus at the UNC24, clock 05:44. PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution declined UNC Pass Interference on ALLEN, Marcus enforced 15 yards to the UNC36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the UNC 32

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 6 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Max Brosmer run for 2 yds to the UNC 24

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Max Brosmer pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Marcus Major run for 7 yds to the UNC 17

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Marcus Major run for 8 yds to the UNC 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Max Brosmer pass incomplete

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Jordan Nubin run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 10

3rd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the UNC 9

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+27 yds

Dragan Kesich 27 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

(00:29) JOHNSON, Max sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the UNC10, fumble on the sack (forced by MCMILLAN, Jai'Onte'), recovered by UMN LINDENBERG, Cody at the UNC10, returned 0 yards to the UNC10, End of Play, clock 00:23. PENALTY UMN Holding on GOUSBY, Aidan enforced 10 yards from the UNC20 to the UNC30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Omarion Hampton run for 15 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.14

Omarion Hampton run for 16 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Max Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MINN 38

3rd & 9Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.09

Max Johnson run for 16 yds to the MINN 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MINN 20

2nd & 8Penalty+10 yds

(12:41) JOHNSON, Max pass deep to the left incomplete thrown to the UMN4, clock 12:35. PENALTY UMN Personal Foul on EASTERN, Deven enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the UMN20 to the UMN10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the MINN 6

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MINN 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Max Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the MINN 28

2nd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Max Brosmer sacked by Amare Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the MINN 24

3rd & 11Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.16

Max Brosmer sacked by Jahvaree Ritzie for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 22

4th & 13Penalty+24 yds

(08:57) CRAWFORD, Mark punt 47 yards to the UNC31, HUZZIE, Alijah returned 24 yards to the UMN45 (LECAPTAIN, Derik;MCMILLAN, Jai'Onte'), clock 08:43. PENALTY Before the snap, UMN Illegal Formation UNC Illegal Block in the Back , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 30 yds

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+70 ydsPPA -2.99

Max Johnson pass intercepted Justin Walley return for 70 yds to the UNC 6

1st & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Max Brosmer pass complete to Cristian Driver for 1 yd to the UNC 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Marcus Major run for 5 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Max Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.30

Max Johnson sacked by Danny Striggow and Jah Joyner for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 24

4th & 11Punt+5 yds

Tom Maginness punt for 46 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 5 yds to the MINN 35

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the MINN 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Max Brosmer pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 6 yds to the MINN 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the MINN 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the UNC 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.46

Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 20 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Marcus Major run for 7 yds to the UNC 22

2nd & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.98

Marcus Major run for 19 yds to the UNC 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the UNC 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Max Brosmer run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Max Johnson pass complete to J.J. Jones for 13 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

JOHNSON, Max pass up the middle complete for 7 yards to MCCOLLUM, Nate caught at the UNC45 and advanced to the UNC45 (WALLEY, Justin), out of bounds, clock 00:42. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on HAMILTON, Christian enforced 15 yards to the UNC23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.24

Max Johnson sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 16

2nd & 32Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 5 yds to the UNC 21

0th & 32End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Dragan Kesich kickoff for 63 yds , Nate McCollum return for 16 yds to the UNC 18

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 23

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 24

3rd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.53

Max Johnson pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 10 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 37

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 43

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Max Johnson pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.69

Max Johnson pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 5 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the MINN 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 7 yds to the MINN 36

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.65

Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.70

Nate McCollum run for 9 yds to the MINN 22

2nd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.41

Max Johnson pass complete to Christian Hamilton for 7 yds to the MINN 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Max Johnson run for no gain to the MINN 15

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 18

3rd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 6 yds to the MINN 12

4th & 7Field Goal Good+29 yds

Noah Burnette 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Max Brosmer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the MINN 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Max Brosmer pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 57 yds, downed at the UNC 17

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 3 yds to the UNC 24

3rd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Max Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.54

Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for no gain to the UNC 33

3rd & 10Penalty+10 yds

(03:06) JOHNSON, Max pass up the middle incomplete intended for BILLUPS II, Paul thrown to the UNC40; QB hurried by WALLEY, Justin, clock 03:02. PENALTY UMN Holding on BRYAN, Za'Quan enforced 10 yards from the UNC33 to the UNC43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 48

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MINN 49

3rd & 2Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.79

Omarion Hampton run for 13 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MINN 35

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Conner Harrell run for 1 yd to the MINN 34

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Conner Harrell pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+52 yds

Noah Burnette 52 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Liam Boyd kickoff for 54 yds , Quentin Redding return for 14 yds to the MINN 25

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Marcus Major run for no gain to the MINN 25

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Minnesota Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MINN 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.14

Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 7 yds to the MINN 27

3rd & 8Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.31

Max Brosmer sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 4 yards to the MINN 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Mark Crawford punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Omarion Hampton at the UNC 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Conner Harrell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the UNC 44

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 46

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Conner Harrell pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Tom Maginness punt for 52 yds, downed at the MINN 2

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.28

Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 11 yds to the MINN 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+9 ydsPPA -0.30

Max Brosmer run for 9 yds to the MINN 22 Max Brosmer fumbled, recovered by UNC Travis Shaw T. Shaw return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MINN 20

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.71

Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 22

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -1.20

Conner Harrell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 24 Conner Harrell fumbled, recovered by UNC Jakiah Leftwich J. Leftwich return for 0 yds

4th & 12Field Goal Good+42 yds

Noah Burnette 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Max Brosmer sacked by Jahvaree Ritzie for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.39

Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 20 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the MINN 41

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Cristian Driver run for 5 yds to the MINN 46

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.91

Max Brosmer run for 6 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+22 ydsPPA +0.97

Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 22 yds Le'Meke Brockington fumbled, recovered by MINN Marcus Major M. Major return for 16 yds for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Max Brosmer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.44

Marcus Major run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 12

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Max Brosmer pass incomplete

4th & 12Field Goal Good+30 yds

Dragan Kesich 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Omarion Hampton run for 13 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.14

Conner Harrell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 32 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MINN 27

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MINN 25

3rd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.16

Conner Harrell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 27

4th & 7Field Goal Good+45 yds

Noah Burnette 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(01:42) BROSMER, Max pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel broken up by ALLEN, Marcus at the UNC45, clock 01:37. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on ALLEN, Marcus enforced 15 yards to the UMN40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.57

Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 20 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 8 yds to the UNC 32

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

(00:48) MAJOR, Marcus rush to the left for a gain of 14 yards to the UNC18 (ECHOLS, Power), out of bounds, clock 00:44. PENALTY UMN Holding on COOPER, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the UNC32 to the UNC42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.89

Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 9 yds to the UNC 33

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.78

Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Max Brosmer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Marcus Major run for no gain to the UNC 29

3rd & 10Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Dragan Kesich 47 yd FG MISSED

Situational Analysis

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
35%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
23%
13 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

Minnesota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
29%
21 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
20%
10 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play