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← Back to GamesNov 29, 2024Week 14
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ole Miss by 41.2

Home Win Probability

Ole Miss 99%

Market (Bovada)

Ole Miss -26

Edge: Ole Miss -26 (15.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 29, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
1400014
Ole MissOle Miss
1073626

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-710-710-1417-1420-1426-14
Ole MissMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMOMMSOMMSOMOMMSOMMSOMTO30ydFG612ydTD1175ydTD1375ydTD675ydPUNT36ydPUNT416ydPUNT37ydPUNT427ydTD189ydPUNT724ydPUNT424ydPUNT33ydMISS828ydPUNT38ydTO312ydPUNT54ydPUNT36ydPUNT6-1ydFG4-2ydPUNT1019ydTD1087ydDOWNS973ydEND1254yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Ole Miss
StatisticMississippi StateOle Miss
Passing18-3314-24
Pass Yards291143
Rush Yards39254
Total Yards330397
Turnovers30
3rd Down4-158-18
Penalties6-464-40
Possession28:1731:43

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Michael Van Buren Jr.
17/32, 280 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Davon Booth
16 CAR, 38 YDS
receiving
Kevin Coleman Jr.
6 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Ole Miss
passing
Jaxson Dart
14/24, 143 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Ulysses Bentley IV
20 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Caden Prieskorn
4 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Luke Work) to the MSST 35

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return+10 ydsPPA -0.14

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass intercepted Chris Paul Jr. return for 10 yds to the MSST 34

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Micah Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 32

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Micah Davis run for 9 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Micah Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 21

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.60

Micah Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 22

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright, broken up by Hunter Washington

4th & 9Field Goal Good+39 yds

Caden Davis 39 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Seydou Traore

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

4th & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.34

Nick Barr-Mira pass complete to Justin Ball for 11 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 41

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 44

3rd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.85

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 19 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MISS 35

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 1 yd to the MISS 34

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley

4th & 7Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +5.16

Kevin Coleman Jr. 34 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Kyle Ferrie Kick)

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Antwane Wells Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 20

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.

3rd & 15Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 21 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the MISS 46

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.03

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the MSST 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.77

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 7 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 34

2nd & 7Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.74

Jaxson Dart run for 20 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 11

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MSST 5

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.49

JJ Pegues 5 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)

3rd & 0Penalty+2 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaac Smith) to the MSST 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Micah Pettus) to the MSST 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 4 yds to the MSST 29

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.82

Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.54

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 16 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +1.91

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 42 yds to the MISS 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds Seydou Traore fumbled, forced by John Saunders Jr., recovered by MSST Jordan Mosley

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +1.94

Michael Van Buren Jr. 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the MISS 30

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright

4th & 4Punt+10 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 56 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 10 yds to the MSST 23

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.36

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 24 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Zxavian Harris) to the MSST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 41

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.16

Davon Booth run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 39

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 55 yds, downed at the MISS 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the MISS 14

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Domonique Thomas run for no gain to the MISS 14

3rd & 2Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.29

Jaxson Dart sacked by Zakari Tillman for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 13

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 56 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for no gain to the MSST 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.70

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 36 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MISS 31

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley, broken up by Trey Amos

3rd & 8Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.81

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Chris Paul Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the MISS 42

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 11

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+89 ydsPPA +6.76

Ulysses Bentley IV 89 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Mario Craver

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.63

Davon Booth run for 11 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 8 yds to the MSST 44

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.19

Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 48

3rd & 11Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 1 yd to the MSST 49

4th & 10Punt+28 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 8 Mississippi State Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Xavier Gayten) to the MISS 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.45

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 17 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 42

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden Lee, broken up by Isaac Smith

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the MISS 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 13

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kelly Akharaiyi, broken up by Isaiah Hamilton

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.18

Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 13

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.13

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 8 yds to the MSST 21

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MSST 16

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 35

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the MISS 44

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.17

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the MSST 45

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MSST 39

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 40

4th & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +2.08

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 4 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 9 yds to the MSST 27

2nd & 1Penalty-10 yds

Dart, Jaxson pass complete to Lee, Cayden for 9 yards to the MSST18, PENALTY MISS holding (Evans, Paris) 10 yards to the MSST37, NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Field Goal Missed+54 yds

Caden Davis 54 yd FG MISSED

0th & 11End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins, broken up by Brice Pollock

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the MISS 28

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the MISS 33

4th & 2Punt+48 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 48 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.88

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 13 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 30

2nd & 11Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.36

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass intercepted Trey Washington return for no gain to the MISS 49

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the MSST 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the MSST 40

2nd & 9Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.40

Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 47

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden Prieskorn

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 10

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Johnnie Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 16

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Mario Craver, broken up by Jadon Canady

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 40 yds, downed at the MISS 44

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.83

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the MSST 48

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.16

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 43

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.75

Micah Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 46

3rd & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.62

Jaxson Dart sacked by Zakari Tillman for a loss of 11 yards to the MISS 43

4th & 21Punt+2 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 35 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 2 yds to the MSST 24 Kevin Coleman Jr. fumbled, recovered by MISS Suntarine Perkins

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.65

Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 26

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden Lee

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.

4th & 12Field Goal Good+43 yds

Caden Davis 43 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MSST 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 9 yds to the MSST 45

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.44

Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.57

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by JJ Pegues and Walter Nolen for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 39

2nd & 18Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 9 yds to the MSST 48

3rd & 9Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.01

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Walter Nolen for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 44

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 43 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the MISS 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.00

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 17 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the MISS 35

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 35

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.32

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 11 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Thomas, Domonique rush for 3 yards to the MSST39, PENALTY MISS holding (James, Jeremy) 10 yards to the MISS48, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.58

Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the MSST 40

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Domonique Thomas run for 2 yds to the MSST 38

3rd & 6Penalty+14 yds

Dart, Jaxson pass incomplete to Lee, Cayden, PENALTY MSST pass interference (Ellington, Corey) 14 yards to the MSST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISS.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Domonique Thomas run for 5 yds to the MSST 19

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.07

Caden Prieskorn 19 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr., broken up by Isaiah Hamilton

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for no gain to the MSST 35

3rd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.38

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 20 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +2.54

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 44 yds to the MISS 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Davon Booth run for no gain to the MISS 1

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 2

3rd & 0Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Marlon Martinez) to the MISS 7

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 5 yds to the MISS 2

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.15

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr., broken up by Trey Washington

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Domonique Thomas run for 1 yd to the MISS 3

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.49

Domonique Thomas run for 10 yds to the MISS 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Domonique Thomas run for 1 yd to the MISS 14

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Domonique Thomas run for 3 yds to the MISS 17

3rd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.35

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 12 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the MISS 33

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the MISS 36

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.05

Jaxson Dart run for 10 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 46

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 46

3rd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the MSST 45

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.02

JJ Pegues run for 1 yd to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
42%
24 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
18%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
47%
15 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays