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← Back to GamesOct 26, 2024Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Arkansas by 10.5

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 23%

Market (Bovada)

Mississippi State +7.5

Edge: Arkansas -7.5 (3.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 26, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ArkansasArkansas
1714101758
Mississippi StateMississippi State
7315025

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-107-177-2410-3410-4125-4425-5125-58
Mississippi StateArkansas

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKTO2-2ydTD323ydTD575ydFG766ydDOWNS853ydTD678ydMISS1251ydTD576ydDOWNS1251ydPUNT37ydFG630ydTD875ydEND12ydFG762ydTO337ydTD762ydTD675ydTO10ydTD235ydFG1064ydTO1174ydTD599ydTO10ydTD212ydTO621ydEND530yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas and Mississippi State
StatisticArkansasMississippi State
Passing23-2922-31
Pass Yards314309
Rush Yards359162
Total Yards673471
Turnovers15
3rd Down0-75-13
Penalties7-704-48
Possession31:1528:45

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas
passing
Taylen Green
23/29, 314 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Braylen Russell
16 CAR, 175 YDS
receiving
Andrew Armstrong
4 REC, 76 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Michael Van Buren Jr.
22/31, 309 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Davon Booth
17 CAR, 93 YDS
receiving
Kevin Coleman Jr.
8 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MSST 29

2nd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.02

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 23 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by ARK Landon Jackson , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Braylen Russell run for 9 yds to the MSST 14

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.29

Braylen Russell run for 6 yds to the MSST 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Taylen Green run for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 26

3rd & 9Penalty+15 yds

(12:27) VAN BUREN JR., Michael sacked for a loss of 5 yards at the MSU21 (GREGORY, Eric), clock 12:23. PENALTY ARK Personal Foul on GREGORY, Eric enforced 15 yards from the MSU26 to the MSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 46

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+54 ydsPPA +5.73

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 54 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.60

Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 30 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.76

Braylen Russell run for 19 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.18

Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 13 yds to the MSST 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Taylen Green pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the MSST 9

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Taylen Green pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+27 yds

Matthew Shipley 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Johnnie Daniels run for 13 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 41

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 42

3rd & 6Penalty+15 yds

(07:28) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MOSLEY, Jordan broken up by ROBINSON, Marquise at the ARK26, clock 07:23. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Marquise enforced 15 yards to the ARK43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.51

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 12 yds to the ARK 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the ARK 29

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 26

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the ARK 22

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.54

Davon Booth run for no gain to the ARK 22

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.73

Taylen Green run for 32 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +0.88

Rashod Dubinion run for 23 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.74

Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 26

2nd & 13Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 31

2nd & 18Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.43

Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 16 yds to the MSST 15

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the MSST 14

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.10

Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 30

2nd & 5Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.14

Davon Booth run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 7 yds to the ARK 43

4th & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +2.42

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Ricky Johnson for 5 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 5 yds to the ARK 33

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.25

Chris Parson run for 5 yds to the ARK 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Chris Parson run for 1 yd to the ARK 27

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the ARK 23

3rd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.89

Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 24

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Kyle Ferrie 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.78

Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 20 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Taylen Green pass complete to Andreas Paaske for 11 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Braylen Russell run for 8 yds to the MSST 37

2nd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.00

Taylen Green run for 10 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Taylen Green pass complete to Jordan Anthony for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+42 yds

Devin Bale kickoff for 61 yds , Davon Booth return for 42 yds to the MSST 46

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for no gain to the MSST 46

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 47

3rd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.92

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 13 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.37

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Xavier Gayten for 10 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.28

Xavier Gayten run for 17 yds to the ARK 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the ARK 6

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the ARK 4

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.27

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARK 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the ARK 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Davon Booth run for no gain to the ARK 1

3rd & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.33

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for no gain to the ARK 1

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -4.21

Chris Parson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 3

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 4

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the ARK 10

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Taylen Green pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt+15 yds

Devin Bale punt for 53 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 15 yds to the ARK 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.78

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 15 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-14 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Seydou Traore) to the ARK 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the ARK 13

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.26

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Stephen Dix Jr. and Cameron Ball for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 18

4th & 13Field Goal Good+36 yds

Kyle Ferrie 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(01:54) GREEN, Taylen pass to the left complete for 50 yards to BRODEN, Tyrone caught at the ARK35 and advanced to the MSU25 (BLANTON, Stone), clock 01:42. PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ARK25 to the ARK20. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.07

Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the ARK 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.60

Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 5 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.31

Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.16

Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 26 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.14

Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 11 yds to the MSST 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+7 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Brylan Lanier) to the MSST 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.15

Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the MSST 1

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Taylen Green pass complete to Andreas Paaske for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 27

0th & 8End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the ARK 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.00

Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 23 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+23 ydsPPA +0.83

Rashod Dubinion run for 23 yds to the MSST 22 Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by ARK for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the MSST 14

2nd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.53

Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for no gain to the MSST 14

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the MSST 13

4th & 1Field Goal Good+32 yds

Matthew Shipley 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.03

Davon Booth run for 38 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the ARK 33

2nd & 6Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.86

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 38 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by ARK Cameron Ball , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.23

Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 36 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Taylen Green pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the MSST 22

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the MSST 18 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by ARK Taylen Green T. Green return for 0 yds

4th & 2Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.15

Taylen Green pass complete to Braylen Russell for 11 yds to the MSST 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Braylen Russell run for no gain to the MSST 7

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Taylen Green pass complete to Andreas Paaske for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the MSST 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.55

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 29 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 8 yds to the ARK 34

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the ARK 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 31 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.28

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 31 yds to the ARK 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Van Buren Jr. pass to Kelly Akharaiyi for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Braylen Russell run for 17 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Braylen Russell run for no gain to the ARK 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.52

Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 18 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.40

Braylen Russell run for 11 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Braylen Russell run for 8 yds to the MSST 21

2nd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA -0.23

Braylen Russell run for 11 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(00:34) GREEN, Taylen pass short to the left complete for 3 yards to HASZ, Luke caught at the MSU8 and advanced to the MSU7 (ELLINGTON, Corey), clock 00:29. PENALTY ARK Holding enforced 10 yards from the MSU10 to the MSU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.72

Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 22

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Taylen Green pass incomplete

3rd & 22Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.07

Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 11 yds to the MSST 11

4th & 11Field Goal Good+29 yds

Matthew Shipley 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds to the MSST 29

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.37

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for no gain to the MSST 30

4th & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.06

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 7 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.18

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 18 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(11:14) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass deep to the right incomplete intended for AKHARAIYI, Kelly thrown to the ARK5, clock 11:09. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on SINGLETARY, Jaheim enforced 15 yards to the ARK27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 7 yds to the ARK 20

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the ARK 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 6 yds to the ARK 10

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the ARK 9

3rd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+8 ydsPPA -4.30

Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the ARK 1 Johnnie Daniels fumbled, recovered by ARK Hudson Clark H. Clark return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 2

2nd & 9Rush+75 ydsPPA +4.53

Braylen Russell run for 75 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Rashod Dubinion run for 11 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(07:02) QB Keeper GREEN, Taylen rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the MSU9 (KEYS JR., Chris), clock 06:57. PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the MSU12 to the MSU17. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the MSST 15

2nd & 13Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.02

Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-3 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (-3 Yards) to the MSST 12

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Rashod Dubinion run for 9 yds to the MSST 3

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.92

Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 8 yds to the MSST 33

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.93

Xavier Gayten run for 11 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Ricky Johnson for 4 yds to the MSST 48

2nd & 6Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.55

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Brad Spence and Eric Gregory for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 46

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Malachi Singleton run for 9 yds to the MSST 48

2nd & 1Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.44

Rashod Dubinion run for 21 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.89

Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 30 Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by ARK Rashod Dubinion R. Dubinion return for 0 yds

2nd & 13Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the MSST 25

3rd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.25

(00:26) Kneel down by SINGLETON, Malachi at MSU27 (team loss of 2), clock 00:18.

Situational Analysis

Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
75%
32 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
63%
8 plays
100%
1 play
67%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
53%
30 plays
2nd
0%
5 plays
25%
8 plays
11%
9 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play