Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 19, 2024Week 8

House Prediction

Model Margin

Vanderbilt by 15.8

Home Win Probability

Vanderbilt 82%

Market (Bovada)

Vanderbilt -27.5

Edge: Ball State +27.5 (11.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 19, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Ball StateBall State
707014
VanderbiltVanderbilt
31101024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-73-76-714-714-1417-1424-14
VanderbiltBall State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BSVANBSVANBSVANBSVANBSVANBSVANBSVANBSVANBSVANTD1175ydFG1166ydPUNT431ydFG781ydPUNT519ydPUNT38ydPUNT32ydTD1197ydPUNT515ydPUNT528ydEND45ydPUNT37ydTD1194ydFG1454ydPUNT410ydTD845ydPUNT412ydEND924yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Ball State and Vanderbilt
StatisticBall StateVanderbilt
Passing21-2917-31
Pass Yards190275
Rush Yards78145
Total Yards268420
Turnovers00
3rd Down2-99-16
Penalties2-102-10
Possession25:2534:35

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Ball State
passing
Kadin Semonza
21/29, 190 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Vaughn Pemberton
5 CAR, 32 YDS
receiving
Tanner Koziol
9 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Vanderbilt
passing
Diego Pavia
17/31, 275 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Diego Pavia
13 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Eli Stowers
8 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BALL 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Kiael Kelly for 3 yds to the BALL 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the BALL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 14 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the VAN 47

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the VAN 44

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.38

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

Malcolm Gillie run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 39

2nd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.31

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 11 yds to the VAN 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.34

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 19 yds to the VAN 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Kiael Kelly run for 9 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds to the VAN 32

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.42

Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 1 yd to the VAN 40

3rd & 7Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.56

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 29 yds to the BALL 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 8 yds to the BALL 23

2nd & 2Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.00

Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 15 yds to the BALL 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 9

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.27

Diego Pavia run for no gain to the BALL 9

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+27 yds

Brock Taylor 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.15

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 24 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Kadin Semonza pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the VAN 44

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Kadin Semonza pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.93

Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 38 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.56

Nate Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 49

2nd & 12Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +3.00

Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 43 yds to the BALL 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the BALL 8

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds to the BALL 1

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BALL 6

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+24 yds

Brock Taylor 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds to the BALL 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Vaughn Pemberton run for 5 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.81

Kadin Semonza sacked by De'Marion Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 33

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Kadin Semonza pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 11 yds to the BALL 44

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 53 yds, downed at the VAN 3

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds to the VAN 10

2nd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 1 yd to the VAN 11

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt+1 yds

Jesse Mirco punt for 39 yds , Qian Magwood returns for 1 yd to the VAN 49

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the VAN 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Kadin Semonza pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Kadin Semonza pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 44 yds, downed at the VAN 3

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.52

Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the VAN 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.49

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds to the VAN 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 27

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.07

Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 8 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.67

Diego Pavia pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 11 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST down

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.94

Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 13 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +4.12

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 41 yds for a TD (Diego Pavia pass to Cole Spence for Two-Point Conversion)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Brock Taylor kickoff for 63 yds , Malcolm Gillie return for 16 yds to the BALL 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 7 yds to the BALL 25

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Kadin Semonza run for 6 yds to the BALL 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 7 yds to the BALL 38

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

(01:53) SEMONZA, Kadin pass to the left incomplete intended for MAGWOOD, Qian thrown to the BSU45; QB hurried by SYDNOR, Khordae, clock 01:51. PENALTY BSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HOOD, Chris enforced 5 yards from the BSU38 to the BSU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Kadin Semonza pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Kadin Semonza pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt+10 yds

Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 50 yds , Martel Hight returns for 10 yds to the VAN 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Diego Pavia pass complete to AJ Newberry for 5 yds to the VAN 32

2nd & 5Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.36

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 23 yds to the BALL 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Diego Pavia run for no gain to the BALL 45

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jesse Mirco punt for 45 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the BALL 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.34

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the BALL 37

2nd & 5Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.86

Kadin Semonza sacked by Nicholas Rinaldi for a loss of 12 yards to the BALL 25

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+33 yds

Carson Holmer kickoff for 64 yds , Junior Sherrill return for 33 yds to the VAN 34

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 37

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the VAN 37

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 4 yds to the VAN 41

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jesse Mirco punt for 53 yds, downed at the BALL 6

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BALL 9

2nd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 11 yds to the BALL 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 1 yd to the BALL 21

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.34

Vaughn Pemberton run for 11 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Vaughn Pemberton run for 4 yds to the BALL 36

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the BALL 41

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

Vaughn Pemberton run for no gain to the BALL 41

4th & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.65

Tj Horton run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.21

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 29 yds to the VAN 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.44

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 14 yds to the VAN 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Carson Holmer kickoff for 63 yds , Junior Sherrill return for 24 yds to the VAN 26

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.96

Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Diego Pavia sacked by Brandon Berger for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 34

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+20 ydsPPA +3.48

Diego Pavia run for 20 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the BALL 42

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

AJ Newberry run for 3 yds to the BALL 39

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.15

Chase Gillespie run for 7 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Moni Jones run for 2 yds to the BALL 30

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the BALL 23

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.23

Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the BALL 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+38 yds

Brock Taylor 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Vaughn Pemberton run for 12 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception-10 ydsPPA -1.54

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Kadin Semonza for a loss of 10 yards to the BALL 29

3rd & 18Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 6 yds to the BALL 35

4th & 12Punt+25 yds

Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 35 yds , Martel Hight returns for 25 yds to the BALL 45

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the BALL 41

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Diego Pavia pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.73

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds to the BALL 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the BALL 25

2nd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA -0.19

Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the BALL 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Moni Jones run for 3 yds to the BALL 11

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the BALL 5

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.49

Diego Pavia run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Kiael Kelly run for 13 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.99

Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 7 yards to the BALL 31

2nd & 17Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BALL 37

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Kadin Semonza pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt+7 yds

Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 34 yds , Martel Hight returns for 7 yds to the VAN 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Chase Gillespie run for 2 yds to the VAN 38

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 41

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Chase Mitchell) to the VAN 36

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.21

Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 17 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Chase Gillespie run for 5 yds to the BALL 42

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Chase Gillespie run for 1 yd to the BALL 41

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.30

Chase Gillespie run for 4 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

(01:59) [NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at BSU38 (team loss of 1), clock 01:54.

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.22

(01:13) [NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at BSU39 (team loss of 1), clock 01:11.

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

(00:36) [NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at BSU40 (team loss of 1), clock 00:30.

Situational Analysis

Ball State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
60%
25 plays
2nd
100%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Vanderbilt

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
36%
28 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
42%
12 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th