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← Back to GamesOct 5, 2024Week 6
UCFUCF
13
-Final
24
FloridaFlorida

House Prediction

Model Margin

Florida by 3.1

Home Win Probability

Florida 58%

Market (Bovada)

Florida +1

Edge: Florida +1 (4.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 5, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
UCFUCF
303713
FloridaFlorida
7170024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-314-321-324-624-13
FloridaUCF

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FLOUCFFLOUCFFLOUCFFLOUCFFLOUCFFLOUCFFLOUCFFLOUCFFLOUCFFLOTD1575ydFG1265ydPUNT31ydDOWNS49ydTD343ydPUNT38ydPUNT422ydPUNT421ydTD958ydDOWNS931ydFG746ydFG1456ydMISS1040ydPUNT5-1ydPUNT418ydTD882ydPUNT525ydTO621ydUncategorized611yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing UCF and Florida
StatisticUCFFlorida
Passing12-2223-28
Pass Yards165229
Rush Yards108130
Total Yards273359
Turnovers10
3rd Down4-126-13
Penalties6-398-64
Possession27:4432:16

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

UCF
passing
KJ Jefferson
12/22, 165 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
RJ Harvey
16 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Randy Pittman
3 REC, 44 YDS
defense
Florida
passing
Graham Mertz
19/23, 179 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Montrell Johnson
10 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Chimere Dike
4 REC, 88 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 30

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Johnson Jr.,Montrell rush middle (Barr,Ethan).

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.98

Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 10 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 7 yds to the FLA 47

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.44

Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 6 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the UCF 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 5 yds to the UCF 38

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.63

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Tank Hawkins, broken up by Ladarius Tennison

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 7 yds to the UCF 29

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.61

Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the UCF 25

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the UCF 20

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 7 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Elijhah Badger 13 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.60

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 30 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the FLA 41

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the FLA 38

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.97

RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the FLA 30

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.19

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the FLA 17

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.32

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the FLA 10

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

pass incomplete to Evan Morris

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr., broken up by Bryce Thornton

4th & 7Field Goal Good+27 yds

Grant Reddick 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Evan Morris kickoff for 64 yds , Jadan Baugh return for 12 yds to the FLA 13

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 16

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 20

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Florida Penalty, false start (Damieon George Jr.) to the FLA 15

3rd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.13

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 14

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 39

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 43

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Harvey,RJ rush middle (Sapp,Tyreak;Denson,Sharif).

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Jefferson,KJ rush middle (Banks,Caleb;Pyburn,Jack).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 5 yds to the UCF 38

2nd & 5Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.32

DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 37 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Ja'Kobi Jackson 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Trey Smack kickoff for 61 yds , RJ Harvey return for 20 yds to the UCF 24

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.77

Ja'Varrius Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 23

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.56

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 9 yds to the UCF 32

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Richardson,Johnny rush left (Douglas,DJ).

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.52

Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 18 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 6 yds to the FLA 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.37

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 44

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.35

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 28 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 32

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius Johnson, broken up by Trikweze Bridges

3rd & 9Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.44

KJ Jefferson sacked by Tyreak Sapp and R.J. Moten for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 24

4th & 17Punt+34 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 49 yds for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Randy Pittman Jr.) to the FLA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Baugh,Jadan rush left (Barr,Ethan).

2nd & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.97

Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 31 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.49

Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for no gain to the UCF 27

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

pass incomplete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars

3rd & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.96

Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for no gain to the UCF 27 Florida Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the UCF 32

3rd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Mertz,Graham rush , out-of-bounds, PENALTY UCF off-side (Kelly,Nyjalik) 5 yards to the UCF37. UCF Penalty, off-side (Nyjalik Kelly) to the UCF 27

3rd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.70

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 20 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike, broken up by Chasen Johnson for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, roughing passer (Deshawn Pace) to the UCF 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Montrell Johnson Jr. 3 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 3 yds to the UCF 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

pass incomplete to Trent Whittemore

4th & 4Punt+5 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt

4th & -1Penalty+15 yds

Florida Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the FLA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Kobe Hudson, broken up by Jason Marshall Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.89

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 14 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 6 yds to the FLA 29

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, false start (Paul Rubelt) to the FLA 34

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

pass incomplete to Kobe Hudson

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

pass incomplete to Randy Pittman Jr.

4th & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.61

KJ Jefferson sacked by Justus Boone and George Gumbs Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 44 UCF Penalty, Defensive holding (Amari Kight) to the FLA 44

1st & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -2.08

DJ Lagway pass complete to Tank Hawkins for no gain to the FLA 44 Florida Penalty, illegal formation (Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson) to the FLA 39

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

DJ Lagway run for 5 yds to the FLA 44

2nd & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.88

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 34 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the UCF 19

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.26

DJ Lagway pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST down

2nd & 10Field Goal Good+28 yds

Trey Smack 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the UCF 33

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.12

RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the UCF 41

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the UCF 46

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.26

Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the FLA 46

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the FLA 45

3rd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.79

RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.46

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 17 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.12

Peny Boone run for 11 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Boone,Peny rush middle (Sapp,Tyreak;Pyburn,Jack).

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the FLA 9

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, delay of game (Brandon Adams) to the FLA 14

3rd & 14Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.66

KJ Jefferson sacked by Grayson Howard for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 19

4th & 19Field Goal Good+37 yds

Grant Reddick 37 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 3 yds to the FLA 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 31

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Graham Mertz run for 3 yds to the FLA 34

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.85

Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.86

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 24 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 9 yds to the UCF 29

2nd & 1Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.79

Graham Mertz sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for 0 yards to the UCF 29 Florida Penalty, Offensive holding (Hayden Hansen) to the UCF 39

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 40

3rd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the UCF 35

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+53 yds

Trey Smack 53 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the UCF 42

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.92

RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, false start (Paul Rubelt) to the UCF 48

1st & 15Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.16

KJ Jefferson sacked by D'Antre Robinson and LJ McCray for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 40

2nd & 23Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

pass incomplete to RJ Harvey

3rd & 23Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.20

KJ Jefferson sacked by George Gumbs Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 34

4th & 29Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.94

Graham Mertz pass complete to Tank Hawkins for 12 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jadan Baugh run for 5 yds to the FLA 39

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Jadan Baugh run for 1 yd to the FLA 40

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

pass incomplete to Elijhah Badger

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.43

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 1 yd to the UCF 19

2nd & 9Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.37

KJ Jefferson pass complete to RJ Harvey for 35 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the FLA 41

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.44

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.31

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.68

RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 27

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion+14 ydsPPA +0.84

KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Johnny Richardson for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Shemar James) to the FLA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

RJ Harvey 13 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Tank Hawkins run for 4 yds to the FLA 29

2nd & 6Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.18

Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 19 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.80

DJ Lagway pass complete to Tank Hawkins for a loss of 3 yards DJ Lagway fumbled, recovered by FLA Tank Hawkins

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

DJ Lagway run for 3 yds to the FLA 48

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Florida Penalty, false start (Knijeah Harris) to the FLA 43

3rd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.25

DJ Lagway pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Johnny Richardson run for 6 yds to the UCF 20

2nd & 4Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.55

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for no gain to the UCF 20

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.83

RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.90

KJ Jefferson pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 11 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

pass incomplete to Trent Whittemore

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.74

KJ Jefferson pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jadan Baugh run for 3 yds to the FLA 24

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.19

Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 30

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Graham Mertz run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 34

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Graham Mertz run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 32

3rd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.19

Graham Mertz run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 32

Situational Analysis

UCF

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
56%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
25%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
38%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
70%
10 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play