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← Back to GamesSep 28, 2024Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas by 36.7

Home Win Probability

Texas 98%

Market (Bovada)

Texas -37

Edge: Mississippi State +37 (0.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
060713
TexasTexas
7771435

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-37-614-621-628-635-13
TexasMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSTEXMSTEXMSTEXMSTEXMSTEXMSTEXMSTEXMSTEXMSTEXMSTEXMSTEXDOWNS1347ydTD572ydPUNT32ydTO652ydPUNT725ydPUNT3-5ydFG710ydPUNT413ydFG1064ydTD875ydEND23ydTO121ydTO33ydDOWNS731ydPUNT915ydTD1075ydPUNT60ydTD885ydTD775ydTD872ydDOWNS810ydEND21yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Texas
StatisticMississippi StateTexas
Passing12-2326-31
Pass Yards144324
Rush Yards150198
Total Yards294522
Turnovers12
3rd Down8-175-9
Penalties9-758-65
Possession34:5725:03

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Michael Van Buren Jr.
12/23, 144 YDS
rushing
Johnnie Daniels
15 CAR, 75 YDS
receiving
Kevin Coleman Jr.
6 REC, 57 YDS
defense
Texas
passing
Arch Manning
26/31, 324 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Tre Wisner
13 CAR, 88 YDS
receiving
DeAndre Moore Jr.
4 REC, 103 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 28

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 34

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.24

Davon Booth run for 8 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 42

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 7 yds to the MSST 49

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.62

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 5 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.56

Chris Parson run for 10 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Van Buren Jr.) to the TEX 41

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Chris Parson run for 6 yds to the TEX 35

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the TEX 31

3rd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.39

Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 33

4th & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -1.94

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Justin Ball for 5 yds to the TEX 28

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Brylan Lanier) to the MSST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.37

Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 16 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.53

Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 21

2nd & 12Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.20

Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 20 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jaydon Blue run for 1 yd for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.39

Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 27 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Arch Manning pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.78

Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 17 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 5 yds to the MSST 24

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the MSST 20

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -4.24

Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 21 Jaydon Blue fumbled, recovered by MSST Zakari Tillman Z. Tillman return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.72

Johnnie Daniels run for 10 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 30

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.68

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 14 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(00:53) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass short to the right complete for 2 yards to BOOTH, Davon caught at the MSST46 and advanced to the MSST46 (GUILBEAU, Jaylon), clock 00:47. PENALTY MSST Holding on WORK, Luke enforced 10 yards from the MSST44 to the MSST34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MSST 38

2nd & 16Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the MSST 46

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Arch Manning pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

(14:12) WISNER, Quintrevion rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the TEX27 (ELLINGTON, Corey), clock 14:08. PENALTY TEX Holding on WILLIAMS, Cameron enforced 10 yards from the TEX20 to the TEX10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.05

Arch Manning sacked by Branden Jennings and Trevion Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 8

3rd & 22Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.01

Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 7 yds to the TEX 15

4th & 15Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Zakari Tillman blocked by Zakari Tillman

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the TEX 32

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the TEX 30

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.66

Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the TEX 25

3rd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.28

run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 27

4th & 11Field Goal Good+45 yds

Kyle Ferrie 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 12 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 34

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Arch Manning pass complete to Matthew Golden for 4 yds to the TEX 38

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Arch Manning pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Michael Kern punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.52

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 18 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 42

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Michael Van Buren Jr.) to the MSST 37

2nd & 13Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.06

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 20 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the TEX 38

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the TEX 35

3rd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.98

Johnnie Daniels run for 17 yds to the TEX 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 19

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the TEX 14

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Chris Parson run for no gain to the TEX 14

4th & 6Field Goal Good+32 yds

Kyle Ferrie 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the TEX 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.82

Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.96

Arch Manning pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 10 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 4 yds to the MSST 46

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Arch Manning pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MSST 49

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +5.79

Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 49 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.15

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Anthony Hill Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 18

2nd & 17Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.29

Johnnie Daniels run for 10 yds to the MSST 28

0th & 17End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+21 ydsPPA -0.92

Jaydon Blue run for 21 yds to the TEX 46 Jaydon Blue fumbled, recovered by MSST Stone Blanton S. Blanton return for 0 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 8 yds to the TEX 38

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.31

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TEX 43 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by TEX Vernon Broughton , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Arch Manning pass complete to Matthew Golden for 9 yds to the MSST 48

2nd & 1Penalty+15 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MSST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the MSST 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the MSST 26

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Texas Penalty, False Start (Gunnar Helm) to the MSST 31

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.41

Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 23 yds to the MSST 8 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gunnar Helm) to the MSST 40

3rd & 17Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 9 yds to the MSST 31

4th & 8Penalty+5 yds

(10:19) AUBURN, Bert field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at MSST39], score nullified by penalty, clock 10:15. PENALTY MSST Offsides on BLANTON, Stone enforced 5 yards from the MSST31 to the MSST26 [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.06

Arch Manning pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Mario Craver run for 10 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Chris Parson run for 4 yds to the MSST 40

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.47

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 9 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds to the TEX 40

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

(06:39) CRAVER, Mario rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the TEX29 (MUHAMMAD, Malik), out of bounds, clock 06:32. PENALTY MSST Illegal Block in the Back on POUNDERS, Makylan enforced 10 yards from the TEX40 to the MSST50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 18Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.69

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 41

4th & 27Punt+20 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 54 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 20 yds to the TEX 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Arch Manning pass complete to Silas Bolden for 3 yds to the TEX 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.13

Arch Manning pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 31 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Texas Penalty, False Start (DJ Campbell) to the MSST 46

1st & 15Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.03

Quintrevion Wisner run for 10 yds to the MSST 36

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the MSST 32

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.43

Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MSST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Texas Penalty, Illegal Snap on MAJORS, Jake enforced (Jake Majors) to the MSST 35

1st & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.43

Arch Manning run for 8 yds to the MSST 27

2nd & 7Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.05

Arch Manning run for 26 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Arch Manning run for no gain to the MSST 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Arch Manning run for 1 yd for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the MSST 33

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.79

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Colton Vasek for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 28

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 17Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Van Buren Jr.) to the MSST 23

3rd & 22Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Van Buren Jr.) to the MSST 18

3rd & 27Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.01

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 7 yds to the MSST 25

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Nick Barr-Mira punt for 60 yds, downed at the TEX 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 7 yds to the TEX 22

2nd & 3Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.98

Quintrevion Wisner run for 38 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the MSST 34

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the MSST 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Arch Manning pass complete to Jerrick Gibson for 8 yds to the MSST 20

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

(10:16) WISNER, Quintrevion rush to the right for a gain of 20 yards to the MSST0, TOUCHDOWN TEX, score nullified by penalty, clock 10:11 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TEX Holding on HUTSON, Cole enforced 10 yards from the MSST20 to the MSST30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 12Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 10 yds to the MSST 20

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.29

Arch Manning pass complete to Matthew Golden for 14 yds to the MSST 6 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (DeAndre Moore Jr.) to the MSST 27

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.81

Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +3.29

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 46 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the TEX 22

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the TEX 20

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.18

Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the TEX 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Justin Ball for 1 yd to the TEX 16

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the TEX 12

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.88

Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the TEX 35

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.99

Quintrevion Wisner run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 2Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.52

Quintrevion Wisner run for 13 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.56

Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 41

2nd & 14Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.87

Arch Manning pass complete to Matthew Golden for 14 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd to the MSST 26

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +3.12

Isaiah Bond run for 26 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 3 yds to the MSST 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.55

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 9 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -2.18

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 44 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by MSST Johnnie Daniels , return for 0 yards

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 15Sack-9 ydsPPA +0.11

Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Barryn Sorrell for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 35

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MSST 33

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

(00:32) [NH] Kneel down by TEX at MSST34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:24.

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
27 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
64%
11 plays
50%
8 plays
3rd
86%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Texas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
48%
23 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
17%
6 plays
80%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play