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← Back to GamesSep 28, 2024Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ole Miss by 22.1

Home Win Probability

Ole Miss 92%

Market (Bovada)

Ole Miss -14.5

Edge: Ole Miss -14.5 (7.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
KentuckyKentucky
373720
Ole MissOle Miss
7010017

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-37-1010-1317-1317-20
Ole MissKentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENTD683ydFG1566ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT620ydPUNT1041ydPUNT616ydTD1381ydEND2-4ydPUNT31ydFG1051ydFG645ydTO557ydPUNT48ydTD661ydPUNT511ydPUNT38ydPUNT920ydPUNT38ydTD683ydMISS844ydEND3-8yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kentucky and Ole Miss
StatisticKentuckyOle Miss
Passing18-2818-27
Pass Yards243261
Rush Yards9392
Total Yards336353
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-161-10
Penalties3-308-53
Possession39:4320:17

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kentucky
passing
Brock Vandagriff
18/28, 243 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Demie Sumo
11 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
Dane Key
8 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Ole Miss
passing
Jaxson Dart
18/27, 261 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Henry Parrish Jr.
13 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tre Harris
11 REC, 176 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Aidan Laros kickoff for 63 yds , Micah Davis return for 15 yds to the MISS 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds to the MISS 24

2nd & 3Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.20

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 15 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 9 yds to the MISS 48

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.31

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 12 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.25

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 39 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Henry Parrish Jr. 1 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 7 yds to the UK 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Brock Vandagriff run for 4 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Dane Key

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Gavin Wimsatt run for 7 yds to the UK 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.95

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 8 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Gavin Wimsatt run for 2 yds to the MISS 47

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Brock Vandagriff run for 2 yds to the MISS 45

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brock Vandagriff run for 5 yds to the MISS 40

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.86

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MISS 33

1st & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA -0.40

Brock Vandagriff run for 11 yds to the MISS 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Gavin Wimsatt run for 11 yds to the MISS 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Gavin Wimsatt run for no gain to the MISS 11

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the MISS 9

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Dane Key

4th & 8Field Goal Good+27 yds

Alex Raynor 27 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MISS 29

3rd & 6Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.46

Jaxson Dart sacked by Octavious Oxendine for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 24

4th & 11Punt+42 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 29 Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the UK 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the UK 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Dane Key

3rd & 8Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.67

Brock Vandagriff sacked by Chris Paul Jr. and Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 11 yards to the UK 25

4th & 19Penalty+5 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UK 30

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.81

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the MISS 40

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Micah Pettus) to the MISS 33

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre Harris

2nd & 20Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.03

Jaxson Dart run for 13 yds to the MISS 46

3rd & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.12

Jaxson Dart sacked by Deone Walker and Jamon Dumas-Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 41

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UK 9

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Gavin Wimsatt run for 1 yd to the UK 10

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brock Vandagriff run for 4 yds to the UK 14

3rd & 5Penalty+3 yds

Vandagriff, Brock pass incomplete to Maclin, Ja'Mori, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Canady, Jadon) 3 yards to the UK17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.93

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 14 yds to the UK 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Gavin Wimsatt run for 2 yds to the UK 33

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Jamarion Wilcox run for 2 yds to the UK 35

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 5 yds to the UK 40

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.98

Brock Vandagriff run for 2 yds to the UK 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.55

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 40

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.95

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 9 yds to the UK 49

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Brock Vandagriff run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.

3rd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.31

Jaxson Dart run for 10 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MISS 29

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre Harris

3rd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 4 yds to the MISS 33

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 6 yds to the UK 25

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the UK 26

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.21

Brock Vandagriff run for 6 yds to the UK 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the UK 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.14

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 16 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Sumo-Karngbaye, Demie rush for 9 yards to the MISS40, PENALTY UK holding 10 yards to the UK41, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.02

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 24 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Gavin Wimsatt run for no gain to the MISS 35

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Josh Kattus

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Vandagriff, Brock pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Amos, Trey) 15 yards to the MISS20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jamarion Wilcox run for 5 yds to the MISS 15

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.66

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 10 yds to the MISS 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.86

Jamarion Wilcox run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 9

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Gavin Wimsatt run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 10

3rd & 0Penalty+5 yds

Vandagriff, Brock pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Amos, Trey) 5 yards to the MISS5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Dane Key 5 Yd pass from Brock Vandagriff (Alex Raynor Kick)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MISS 20

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MISS 26

2nd & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.61

Jaxson Dart sacked by Octavious Oxendine for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 21

0th & 9End of Half-5 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 2 yds to the UK 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the UK 31

3rd & 4Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.65

Brock Vandagriff sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.57

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 17 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the UK 42

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.31

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the UK 32

2nd & 5Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.39

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 15 yds to the UK 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the UK 15

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the UK 10

3rd & 3Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 14

4th & 7Field Goal Good+31 yds

Caden Davis 31 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 21 yds to the UK 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.13

Jamarion Wilcox run for 17 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Jamarion Wilcox run for 2 yds to the MISS 35

2nd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.89

Brock Vandagriff sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 10 yards to the MISS 45

3rd & 18Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.06

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 15 yds to the MISS 30

4th & 3Field Goal Good+48 yds

Alex Raynor 48 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 6 yds to the MISS 31

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.69

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.37

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 39 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the UK 19

2nd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 1 yd Tre Harris fumbled, recovered by UK

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.34

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 18 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 35

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Justin Kattus

3rd & 11Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.45

Brock Vandagriff sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 9 yards to the UK 26

4th & 20Punt+3 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 38 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 3 yds to the MISS 39

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the MISS 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.10

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Matt Jones for 6 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the UK 47

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre Harris

3rd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 48

4th & 7Passing Touchdown+48 ydsPPA +6.35

Tre Harris 48 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)

4th & 7Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Caden Davis kickoff for 64 yds , Barion Brown return for 14 yds to the UK 15

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.55

Brock Vandagriff run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 13

2nd & 12Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.22

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 25 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jamarion Wilcox run for no gain to the UK 38

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Ja'Mori Maclin

3rd & 10Penalty-15 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UK 23

3rd & 25Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the UK 26

4th & 22Punt+17 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 53 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 17 yds to the MISS 38

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MISS 42

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Matt Jones run for no gain to the MISS 42

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the MISS 46

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 12

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the UK 14

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Brock Vandagriff run for 3 yds to the UK 17

3rd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.31

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 12 yds to the UK 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Jamarion Wilcox run for 1 yd to the UK 30

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 3 yds to the UK 33

3rd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.12

Brock Vandagriff run for 9 yds to the UK 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Ja'Mori Maclin

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Jordan Dingle

3rd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.80

Brock Vandagriff sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 10 yards to the UK 32

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Aidan Laros punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 6 yds to the MISS 39

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 40

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 41

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Dane Key

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Brock Vandagriff run for 3 yds to the UK 20

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Fred Farrier II

4th & 7Pass Reception+63 ydsPPA +4.70

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 63 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 11 yds to the MISS 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.05

Josh Kattus 2 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre Harris

4th & 11Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +4.37

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 42 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.75

Jaxson Dart sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 38

3rd & 14Penalty+5 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UK 33

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 2 yds to the UK 31

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Caden Davis 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 30

2nd & 11Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.62

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 25

3rd & 16Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.10

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 23

Situational Analysis

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
4 plays
32%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
13%
16 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
0%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
52%
21 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
100%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
29%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play