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← Back to GamesSep 28, 2024Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

LSU by 10.5

Home Win Probability

LSU 71%

Market (Bovada)

LSU -21

Edge: South Alabama +21 (10.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2024

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South AlabamaSouth Alabama
037010
LSULSU
21140742

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-021-021-328-335-335-1042-10
LSUSouth Alabama

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LSUSALSUSALSUSALSUSALSUSALSUSALSUSASALSUSALSUSALSUSALSUTD171ydPUNT518ydTD287ydPUNT35ydTD1179ydFG1044ydTD560ydPUNT56ydPUNT39ydPUNT36ydTD469ydPUNT518ydTO734ydEND47ydTD975ydTO851ydDOWNS767ydTD1299ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT513ydDOWNS1062ydEND1155yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Alabama and LSU
StatisticSouth AlabamaLSU
Passing20-3029-42
Pass Yards221430
Rush Yards112237
Total Yards333667
Turnovers02
3rd Down4-146-9
Penalties5-354-40
Possession31:0029:00

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Alabama
passing
Giovanni Lopez
16/22, 171 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Kentrel Bullock
9 CAR, 56 YDS
receiving
Anthony Eager
4 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
defense
LSU
passing
Garrett Nussmeier
26/39, 409 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Caden Durham
7 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kyren Lacy
5 REC, 107 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +5.78

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 71 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds to the USA 31

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 8 yds to the USA 47

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 44

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

PJ Martin run for 1 yd to the USA 43

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 13

1st & 10Rush+86 ydsPPA +5.76

Caden Durham run for 86 yds to the USA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the USA 27

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY USA False Start (Carney,Malachi) 5 yards from USA27 to USA22. NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the USA 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Gio Lopez pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 45 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for no gain to the LSU 21

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.72

Caden Durham run for 10 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.32

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 15 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.48

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 29 yds to the USA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the USA 19

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception-8 ydsPPA -2.07

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the USA 12 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Will Campbell) to the USA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the USA 24

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.36

Josh Williams run for 12 yds to the USA 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 4 yds to the USA 8

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.55

Caden Durham run for 8 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.90

Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 25 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 5 yds to the LSU 44

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the LSU 40

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.66

Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the LSU 41

4th & 2Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.32

Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 9 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Gio Lopez run for 2 yds to the LSU 30

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Fluff Bothwell run for no gain to the LSU 30

3rd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 31

4th & 9Field Goal Good+49 yds

Laith Marjan 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+39 yds

Laith Marjan kickoff for 64 yds , Zavion Thomas return for 39 yds to the LSU 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 44

3rd & 6Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.18

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 25 yds to the USA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +0.96

Zavion Thomas run for 26 yds to the USA 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Garrett Nussmeier run for 5 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 7 yds to the USA 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass incomplete deep left to Sandgren,Shamar thrown to LSU44 broken up by Stamps,Ashton PENALTY USA Personal Foul (Davis,Jordan) 15 yards from USA36 to USA21. NO PLAY.

1st & 25Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 1 yd to the USA 22

2nd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Gio Lopez pass incomplete

3rd & 24Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.06

Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the USA 31

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 24

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Caden Durham run for 5 yds to the LSU 29

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the LSU 33

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Peyton Todd punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the USA 21

2nd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.36

Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 8 yds to the USA 29

3rd & 3Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Gio Lopez sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 28

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 31

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Caden Durham run for 9 yds to the LSU 40

2nd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.15

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.43

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 30 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 23 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 29

2nd & 6Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.35

Kentrel Bullock run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 48

2nd & 12Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.06

run for 5 yds to the USA 43 fumbled, recovered by USA Shamar Sandgren

3rd & 17Penalty0 yds

South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wesley Miller) declined

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 7

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.38

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 3 yds to the LSU 10 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the LSU 5

1st & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.10

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the LSU 12

3rd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.30

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 16 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 13 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.20

Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Lardarius Webb Jr. return for no gain to the USA 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 1 yd to the USA 39

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Gio Lopez pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.86

Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 12 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.36

Gio Lopez sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 45

0th & 10End of Half-6 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Kentrel Bullock run for 16 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Gio Lopez run for 12 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the LSU 41

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the LSU 38

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.59

Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the LSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 7 yds to the LSU 30

2nd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 1 yd to the LSU 29

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Gio Lopez run for 7 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY USA False Start (Hale,Asher) 5 yards from LSU22 to LSU27. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.09

Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for 27 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 15 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 9 yds to the LSU 49

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.20

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 4 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.98

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 23 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.30

Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Jaden Voisin return for no gain to the USA 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for 17 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the LSU 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.65

Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for 38 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the LSU 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the LSU 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Gio Lopez pass incomplete

4th & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -4.02

Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the LSU 1

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 4

2nd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.70

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 16 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.96

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 13 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Nussmeier,Garrett pass incomplete short right to Williams,Josh thrown to LSU35 PENALTY LSU Face Mask (Chester,DJ) 15 yards from LSU33 to LSU18. NO PLAY.

1st & 25Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Kaleb Jackson run for 3 yds to the LSU 21

2nd & 22Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.21

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 10 yds to the LSU 31

3rd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.88

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 15 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Kaleb Jackson run for 1 yd to the LSU 47

3rd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.70

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 9 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Josh Williams run for 10 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY LSU Illegal Snap (Chester,DJ) 5 yards from USA34 to USA39. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.97

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 35 yds to the USA 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Josh Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Gio Lopez pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY USA False Start (Preciado,Malachi) 5 yards from USA25 to USA20. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.21

Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the USA 28

3rd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.43

Gio Lopez sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the USA 20

4th & 15Punt+3 yds

Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 35 , Zavion Thomas returns for 3 yds to the LSU 35

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ju'Juan Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.56

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Ju'Juan Johnson run for 3 yds to the USA 47

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.53

Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 48

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Blake Ochsendorf punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

PJ Martin run for 5 yds to the USA 8

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.27

PJ Martin run for 7 yds to the USA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.85

Bishop Davenport pass complete to Javon Ivory for 14 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 9 yds to the USA 38

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.37

Bishop Davenport pass incomplete

3rd & 1Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.46

Bishop Davenport pass complete to Andrew Bench for 19 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Bishop Davenport pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Bishop Davenport pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 8 yds to the LSU 35

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Bishop Davenport pass incomplete

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.39

Bishop Davenport pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Rickie Collins run for 3 yds to the LSU 38

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Kaleb Jackson run for 1 yd to the LSU 37

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.64

Rickie Collins run for 11 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kaleb Jackson run for 4 yds to the USA 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.11

Rickie Collins pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 11 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rickie Collins pass complete to Ka'Morreun Pimpton for 5 yds to the USA 32

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Kaleb Jackson run for 7 yds to the USA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ju'Juan Johnson run for 5 yds to the USA 20

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Rickie Collins pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 5 yds to the USA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the USA 13

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Kaleb Jackson run for 3 yds to the USA 10

Situational Analysis

South Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
24 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays
53%
32 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
71%
7 plays
36%
11 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th