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← Back to GamesAug 31, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kentucky by 17.1

Home Win Probability

Kentucky 85%

Market (Bovada)

Kentucky -25.5

Edge: Southern Miss +25.5 (8.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 31, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Southern MissSouthern Miss
00000
KentuckyKentucky
7177031

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-017-024-031-0
KentuckySouthern Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KENSMKENSMKENSMKENSMKENSMKENSMSMKENTO727ydTO229ydTD1059ydTO1475ydPUNT535ydPUNT31ydFG49ydPUNT2-2ydTD775ydDOWNS44ydTD329ydEND17ydPUNT528ydTD784yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Southern Miss and Kentucky
StatisticSouthern MissKentucky
Passing13-1912-18
Pass Yards126169
Rush Yards5148
Total Yards131317
Turnovers21
3rd Down3-83-5
Penalties4-204-45
Possession15:0420:00

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Southern Miss
passing
Tate Rodemaker
13/19, 126 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Ethan Crawford
3 CAR, 10 YDS
receiving
Dannis Jackson
3 REC, 42 YDS
defense
Kentucky
passing
Brock Vandagriff
12/18, 169 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Demie Sumo
8 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jay Maclin
2 REC, 66 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Andrew Stein kickoff for 37 yds , Willie Rodriguez return for 20 yds to the UK 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 3 yds to the USM 49

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.22

Brock Vandagriff run for 9 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.31

Brock Vandagriff run for 14 yds to the USM 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.15

Barion Brown run for 10 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dane Key) to the USM 25

1st & 19Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.76

Brock Vandagriff pass intercepted Dylan Lawrence return for no gain to the USM 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.25

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 29 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-5 ydsPPA -2.63

Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted Jamon Dumas-Johnson return for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 41

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jordan Dingle for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 39

2nd & 12Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.94

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 20 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.31

Jamarion Wilcox run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 43

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 4 yds to the USM 39

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.95

Brock Vandagriff run for 11 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the USM 25

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.37

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 11 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Barion Brown run for 2 yds to the USM 12

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Brock Vandagriff run for no gain to the USM 12

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +3.04

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Aidan Laros kickoff for 65 yds , JQ Gray return for 17 yds to the USM 17

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.77

Tate Rodemaker sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 10

2nd & 17Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.07

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 9

3rd & 18Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.91

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 34 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 45

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 7 yds to the UK 48

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.91

Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the UK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Ethan Crawford run for 6 yds to the UK 41

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.28

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 5 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the UK 34

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.71

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 21 yds to the UK 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Ethan Crawford run for 6 yds to the UK 7

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 8

3rd & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.19

Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted, touchback. JQ Hardaway return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 10 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.01

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 22 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the USM 45

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Wilson Berry punt for 37 yds, downed at the USM 8

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USM 8

2nd & 10Penalty-4 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the USM 4

2nd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 5 yds to the USM 9

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 23 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 1 yd to the USM 31

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 6 yds to the USM 25

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Barion Brown run for 2 yds to the USM 23

4th & 1Field Goal Good+41 yds

Alex Raynor 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 6 yds to the USM 31

2nd & 4Penalty0 yds

RODEMAKER, Tate pass short to the left complete for 0 yards to HEATH, Kyirin caught at the USM34 and advanced to the USM31 (HAIRSTON, Maxwell). PENALTY USM Illegal Touch-Pass on HEATH, Kyirin enforced 0 yards from the USM31 to the USM31, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 4Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.71

Tate Rodemaker sacked by Tre'vonn Rybka for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.89

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 35 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.37

Jamarion Wilcox run for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.22

Jason Patterson run for 12 yds to the USM 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.40

Jason Patterson run for 11 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Jason Patterson run for 4 yds to the USM 3

2nd & 3Penalty+2 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalil Clemons) to the USM 1

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 4 yds to the USM 29

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 3 yds to the USM 31

4th & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA +0.05

Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 29

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Brock Vandagriff run for 1 yd to the USM 28

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass to the right complete for 11 yards to SUMO-KARNGBAYE, Demie caught at the USM17 and advanced to the USM17 (LAWRENCE, Dylan). PENALTY UKY Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MINCEY, Gerald enforced 5 yards from the USM28 to the USM33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 14Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.39

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 21 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Aidan Laros kickoff for 60 yds , Rodrigues Clark return for no gain to the USM 33

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Kenyon Clay run for 7 yds to the USM 40

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to JQ Gray for 6 yds to the USM 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 9 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

RODEMAKER, Tate pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the UKY36. PENALTY UKY Roughing the Passer on WEAVER, J.J. enforced 15 yards from the USM40 to the UKY45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.47

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 47

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt+5 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 36 yds , Ja'Mori Maclin returns for 5 yds to the UK 16

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Fred Farrier II run for 3 yds to the UK 19

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.52

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 12 yds to the UK 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BROWN, Barion thrown to the USM25. PENALTY USM Pass Interference on JAMES, Will enforced 15 yards to the UKY46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +1.87

Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 46 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the USM 5

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Jordan Dingle 5 Yd pass from Brock Vandagriff (Alex Raynor Kick)

Situational Analysis

Southern Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
13 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
41%
22 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
57%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
75%
4 plays
4th