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← Back to GamesAug 31, 2024Week 1
MiamiMiami
41
-Final
17
FloridaFlorida

House Prediction

Model Margin

Florida by 4.3

Home Win Probability

Florida 60%

Market (Bovada)

Florida +2.5

Edge: Florida +2.5 (6.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 31, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MiamiMiami
71714341
FloridaFlorida
370717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-73-103-1710-3110-3817-3817-41
FloridaMiami

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAFLOMIAPUNT413ydTD1184ydPUNT534ydTO412ydFG610ydFG970ydDOWNS533ydTD458ydPUNT37ydPUNT39ydTD171ydTD875ydEND1-8ydTD675ydPUNT47ydTD986ydTO1151ydMISS41ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT31ydTD958ydFG637ydTO313ydEND546yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Miami and Florida
StatisticMiamiFlorida
Passing26-3614-26
Pass Yards385122
Rush Yards144139
Total Yards529261
Turnovers12
3rd Down5-101-9
Penalties2-262-25
Possession34:3025:30

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Miami
passing
Cameron Ward
26/35, 385 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Damien Martinez
15 CAR, 65 YDS
receiving
Xavier Restrepo
7 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Jaden Harris
1 TFL, 1 PD
Florida
passing
Graham Mertz
11/20, 91 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Montrell Johnson
11 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Eugene Wilson
7 REC, 50 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the FLA 40

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.91

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 38

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Myles Graham at the MIA 16

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 22

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.32

Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 2 yds to the MIA 28

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.72

Cam Ward run for 12 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.57

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 13 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.75

Cam Ward run for 24 yds to the FLA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 19

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Cam Ward pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty+10 yds

Florida Penalty, Roughing Passer (Justus Boone) to the FLA 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Damien Martinez run for no gain to the FLA 9

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.74

Cam Ward pass complete to Cam McCormick for 9 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 11 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.67

Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 19 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Elijhah Badger

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 42

3rd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 1 yd to the MIA 41

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 38 yds, downed at the MIA 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 5

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.47

Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 9 yds to the MIA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 1 yd to the MIA 15

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.01

Cam Ward pass intercepted Shemar James return for no gain to the MIA 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 3 yds to the MIA 30

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Graham Mertz run for 7 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 23

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil Jackson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Arlis Boardingham

4th & 10Field Goal Good+41 yds

Trey Smack 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the MIA 32

2nd & 3Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.55

Damien Martinez run for 17 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.78

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 12 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.49

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 17 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 11 yds to the FLA 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Cam Ward pass complete to Elija Lofton for 3 yds to the FLA 8

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the FLA 5

3rd & 4Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.30

Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for no gain to the FLA 5

4th & 4Field Goal Good+23 yds

Andres Borregales 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Daryl Porter Jr.) to the MIA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 42

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Elijhah Badger

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.08

Treyaun Webb run for no gain to the MIA 42

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.33

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Arlis Boardingham

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Ward, Cam pass incomplete to Horton, Isaiah, PENALTY FLA roughing passer (Douglas, DJ) 15 yards to the FLA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.14

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 30 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Xavier Restrepo

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.80

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the FLA 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 5 yds to the MIA 31

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 34

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Cam Ward pass complete to Jordan Lyle for 1 yd to the MIA 35

4th & 1Punt+17 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 53 yds , Chimere Dike returns for 17 yds to the FLA 29

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +5.78

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 71 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 8 yds to the MIA 45

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.33

Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 28 yds to the FLA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Isaiah Horton

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.12

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 24 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.18

Graham Mertz sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 17

0th & 10End of Half-8 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 5 yds to the MIA 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.82

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 40 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.59

Cam Ward pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 22 yds to the FLA 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 6 yds to the FLA 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 13 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 43

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -2.15

TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FLA Montrell Johnson Jr.

3rd & 13Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.30

Graham Mertz sacked by Jaden Harris and Elijah Alston for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 32

4th & 16Punt+7 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 61 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 7 yds to the MIA 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.61

Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 23 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 43

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Jordan Lyle run for 8 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Samuel Brown

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Samuel Brown

3rd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.25

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 27 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Cam Ward pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jordan Lyle run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 23

3rd & 11Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.72

Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 23 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 28

2nd & 7Penalty+11 yds

Miami Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaden Harris) to the FLA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 5 yds to the FLA 44

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.13

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Graham Mertz sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 46

2nd & 17Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.87

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 43

3rd & 20Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.79

Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 12 yds to the MIA 45

4th & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +3.33

Graham Mertz pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 12 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Aidan Mizell

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.87

Graham Mertz run for 10 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 24

2nd & 11Pass Interception Return+67 ydsPPA -3.82

Graham Mertz pass intercepted Mishael Powell return for 67 yds to the FLA 28

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the FLA 27

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Xavier Restrepo pass incomplete to Samuel Brown

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Xavier Restrepo

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Andres Borregales 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Treyaun Webb run for 2 yds to the FLA 29

2nd & 8Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.76

DJ Lagway run for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 25

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

DJ Lagway pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 51 yds, downed at the MIA 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds to the MIA 26

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the MIA 28

3rd & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.40

Cam Ward sacked by Tyreak Sapp for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 25

4th & 9Punt+11 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds , Chimere Dike returns for 11 yds to the FLA 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.95

DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.77

DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 16 yds to the MIA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

DJ Lagway run for 1 yd to the MIA 30

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.68

Ja'Kobi Jackson run for 11 yds to the MIA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

DJ Lagway pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Ja'Kobi Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 21

3rd & 12Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.79

DJ Lagway run for 16 yds to the MIA 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

DJ Lagway pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 4 yds to the MIA 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Treyaun Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)

2nd & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Trey Smack on-side kick recovered by Miami at the FLA 45 , Riley Williams return for no gain to the FLA 45

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the FLA 42

2nd & 7Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.27

Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 29 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the FLA 12

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the FLA 8

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Damien Martinez

4th & 5Field Goal Good+26 yds

Andres Borregales 26 yd FG GOOD

4th & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+35 yds

Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds , Jadan Baugh return for 35 yds to the FLA 35

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jadan Baugh run for 6 yds to the FLA 41

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.84

DJ Lagway run for 7 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.99

DJ Lagway pass intercepted Jaden Harris return for no gain to the MIA 42

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 45

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 48

3rd & 4Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.83

Cam Ward pass complete to Elija Lofton for 35 yds to the FLA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ajay Allen run for 4 yds to the FLA 13

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the FLA 12

Situational Analysis

Miami

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
42%
33 plays
2nd
100%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
53%
17 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th

Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
46%
26 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play