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← Back to GamesDec 26, 2023Week 1
Texas StateTexas State
45
-Final
21
RiceRice

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas State by 3.1

Home Win Probability

Rice 40%

Market (Bovada)

Rice +3.5

Edge: Rice +3.5 (0.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 26, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Texas StateTexas State
141014745
RiceRice
7140021

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-77-1414-2121-2121-3121-3821-45
RiceTexas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSRICTSRICTSRICTSRICRICTSRICTSRICTSTSRICRICTSRICTSRICTSRICTSTSRICTSRICTSTD775ydPUNT30ydPUNT36ydTD842ydTD885ydPUNT43ydPUNT32ydTD10ydPUNT38ydPUNT3-3ydTD1177ydPUNT32ydTD358ydTO1561ydTD1030ydTD34ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT614ydPUNT35ydTO4-4ydPUNT3-1ydTO213ydTO36ydPUNT30ydPUNT30ydTD338ydTO310ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas State and Rice
StatisticTexas StateRice
Passing15-2913-26
Pass Yards152112
Rush Yards14885
Total Yards300197
Turnovers06
3rd Down6-173-11
Penalties11-1297-48
Possession30:1729:43

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas State
passing
TJ Finley
15/29, 152 YDS
rushing
Ismail Mahdi
24 CAR, 122 YDS
receiving
Ashtyn Hawkins
3 REC, 55 YDS
defense
Rice
passing
AJ Padgett
10/21, 85 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Dean Connors
15 CAR, 64 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Elijah Mojarro
3 REC, 35 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Ismail Mahdi run for 26 yds to the RICE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the RICE 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

TJ Finley pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.39

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the RICE 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the RICE 29

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +3.09

Jahmyl Jeter run for 29 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.75

AJ Padgett sacked by Terry Webb and Jordan Revels for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 35

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffrey

3rd & 14Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.38

AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 9 yds to the RICE 44

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

Rice Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the RICE 39

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 5 yds to the TXST 19

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 20

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Konner Fox

4th & 4Punt+23 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 42 Texas State Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the TXST 43

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the TXST 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.26

AJ Padgett pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 12 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffrey

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Landon Ransom-Goelz

3rd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.56

Luke McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the TXST 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Dean Connors run for no gain to the TXST 17 Texas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (8 Yards) to the TXST 9

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the TXST 7

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 7 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)

2nd & 7Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds , Ismail Mahdi return for 15 yds to the TXST 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds to the TXST 24

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.51

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the TXST 44

2nd & 2Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.14

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 21 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.51

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 32 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the RICE 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the RICE 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

3rd & 8Kickoff Return (Offense)+30 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 55 yds , Quinton Jackson return for 30 yds to the RICE 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.99

AJ Padgett pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 11 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.10

AJ Padgett pass complete to Kobie Campbell for no gain to the TXST 49

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Juma Otoviano

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.30

AJ Padgett sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 8 yards to the RICE 43

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 37 yds, downed at the TXST 20

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 19

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

TJ Finley pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the TXST 22

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 54 yds, downed at the RICE 24

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+36 ydsPPA -7.85

AJ Padgett pass intercepted Brian Holloway return for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 38

2nd & 8Penalty+5 yds

Texas State Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (5 Yards) to the RICE 43

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.03

Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 44

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Dean Connors

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 40

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.65

TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 37

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey Hobert

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole Wilson

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, downed at the RICE 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffrey

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the RICE 23

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Texas State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the RICE 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 38

2nd & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.28

AJ Padgett pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 19 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TXST 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.78

Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 30

2nd & 12Penalty-10 yds

Rice Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TXST 40

2nd & 22Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.54

AJ Padgett pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 2 yds to the TXST 38

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +2.06

AJ Padgett pass incomplete for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TXST 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Juma Otoviano run for 6 yds to the TXST 17

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the TXST 17

3rd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.47

AJ Padgett pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 14 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Dean Connors run for 3 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Rice Penalty, Illegal Kicking (-5 Yards) to the RICE 30

1st & 15Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Enock Gota kickoff for 70 yds , Ismail Mahdi return for 19 yds to the TXST 19

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 22

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.47

Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 21

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole Wilson

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 42

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Luke McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the RICE 45

2nd & 7Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.23

Dean Connors run for 27 yds to the TXST 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Dean Connors run for 28 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 30

3rd & 5Penalty+10 yds

Rice Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TXST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the TXST 44

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.31

Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the RICE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.76

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 14 yds to the RICE 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

TJ Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.99

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 19 yds to the RICE 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the RICE 6

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the RICE 5

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.03

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 5

2nd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.99

TJ Finley sacked by De'Braylon Carroll for a loss of 9 yards to the RICE 14

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

4th & 14Field Goal Good+31 yds

Mason Shipley 31 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 35 yds , Christian Francisco return for no gain to the RICE 30 Christian Francisco fumbled, recovered by TXST

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the RICE 29

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.71

TJ Finley run for no gain to the RICE 29

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the RICE 22

4th & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.00

TJ Finley run for 7 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

TJ Finley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.28

Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the RICE 7

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.91

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the RICE 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.84

TJ Finley run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 6

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the RICE 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Nash Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 42

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

AJ Padgett run for 3 yds to the RICE 45

3rd & 6Interception Return Touchdown+48 ydsPPA -8.06

AJ Padgett pass intercepted Brian Holloway return for 48 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 59 yds , Quinton Jackson return for 17 yds to the RICE 23 Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the RICE 12

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Juma Otoviano run for no gain to the RICE 12

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.14

Chase Jenkins run for 1 yd to the RICE 13

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

Rice Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the RICE 8

3rd & 14Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.04

Chase Jenkins sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 7

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the RICE 47

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

TJ Finley run for 1 yd to the RICE 46

2nd & 9Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.59

TJ Finley sacked by Tyson Flowers for a loss of 11 yards to the TXST 43

3rd & 20Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.17

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 11

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 13

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 14

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Chase Jenkins pass complete to Dean Connors for 8 yds to the RICE 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Juma Otoviano run for 6 yds to the RICE 28

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the RICE 29

3rd & 3Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.63

Chase Jenkins sacked by Dominique Ratcliff and Jordan Revels for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 25

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 30

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 29

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TXST 35

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

TJ Finley pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds for a 1ST down , Sean Fresch returns for no gain to the RICE 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Texas State Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the RICE 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.77

AJ Padgett pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 10 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

AJ Padgett pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return+20 ydsPPA -2.62

AJ Padgett pass intercepted Shawn Holton return for 5 yds to the TXST 29 Texas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the TXST 14

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 17

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Texas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 12

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 13

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

TJ Finley pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.79

Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 13 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.95

Shawqi Itraish pass intercepted Kaleb Ford-Dement return for no gain to the TXST 19

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 22

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 27

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.56

Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 25

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds , Moh Bility returns for no gain to the RICE 39 Moh Bility fumbled, recovered by TXST John Oehrlein

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the RICE 36

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Texas State Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the RICE 41

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

TJ Finley pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 2 yds to the RICE 39

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, downed at the RICE 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 5

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.20

Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 3

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.05

Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 3

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the RICE 39

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +1.09

Ismail Mahdi run for 33 yds to the RICE 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST down Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (1 Yards) to the RICE 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Shawqi Itraish run for 4 yds to the RICE 32

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.03

Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Boden Groen for 6 yds to the RICE 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+47 ydsPPA -2.05

Shawqi Itraish pass intercepted Bobby Crosby return for 32 yds to the TXST 30 Texas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the RICE 27

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 28

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.91

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 29

Situational Analysis

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
24 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
44%
9 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Rice

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
30%
27 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
33%
12 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th