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← Back to GamesDec 23, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

James Madison by 17.9

Home Win Probability

Air Force 16%

Market (Bovada)

Air Force -2.5

Edge: James Madison +2.5 (20.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
James MadisonJames Madison
707721
Air ForceAir Force
7147331

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-714-721-728-1431-1431-21
Air ForceJames Madison

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20JMAFJMAFJMAFJMAFJMAFJMAFJMAFJMAFJMAFJMAFPUNT419ydTD886ydTD775ydPUNT710ydTO856ydTD772ydPUNT614ydPUNT31ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-4ydTD246ydEND1-2ydDOWNS726ydTD551ydTD975ydPUNT3-4ydFG1749ydTD1270ydEND625yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing James Madison and Air Force
StatisticJames MadisonAir Force
Passing20-333-5
Pass Yards25745
Rush Yards26351
Total Yards283396
Turnovers10
3rd Down4-118-15
Penalties3-100-0
Possession23:0936:51

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

James Madison
passing
Jordan McCloud
20/33, 257 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kaelon Black
11 CAR, 43 YDS
receiving
Elijah Sarratt
8 REC, 115 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Zachary Larrier
3/5, 45 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Emmanuel Michel
35 CAR, 203 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jared Roznos
1 REC, 42 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Jamari Bellamy
1 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 62 yds , DJ Barksdale return for 22 yds to the JMU 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 10 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds to the JMU 43

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMU 44

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMU 44

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 14

1st & 10Rush+54 ydsPPA +3.79

Emmanuel Michel run for 54 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the JMU 26

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.00

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the JMU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the JMU 13

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.30

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the JMU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the JMU 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the JMU 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Kaelon Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 10 yds to the JMU 34

3rd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.44

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 7 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.79

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 27 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.89

Kaelon Black run for 14 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 18 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 7Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.48

John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 35

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Zac Larrier pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 45 yds, downed at the JMU 20

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Latrele Palmer run for 12 yds to the JMU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 9 yds to the JMU 41

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 4 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.18

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 17 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.45

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 16 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 27

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Kaelon Black run for 5 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.82

Kaelon Black run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 24

3rd & 12Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.13

Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Johnathan Youngblood return for no gain to the AFA 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.24

Aiden Calvert run for 7 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 41

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 44

3rd & 4Rush+51 ydsPPA +3.88

John Lee Eldridge III run for 51 yds to the JMU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the JMU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

2nd & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 61 yds , DJ Barksdale return for 19 yds to the JMU 23

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Latrele Palmer run for 6 yds to the JMU 29

2nd & 4Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.37

Jordan McCloud sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 9 yards to the JMU 20 James Madison Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the JMU 20

3rd & 13Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.21

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 17 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 25

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 20

2nd & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.17

Dane Kinamon run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 19

3rd & 16Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.05

Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the AFA 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMU 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 6 yds to the JMU 36

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -0.94

Jordan McCloud sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 8 yards to the JMU 28 Jordan McCloud fumbled, forced by Bo Richter, recovered by JMU Jordan McCloud , return for 0 yards

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 29

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 53 yds, downed at the JMU 16

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 15

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.10

Kaelon Black run for a loss of 3 yards to the JMU 12

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 34 yds, downed at the JMU 46

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the JMU 42

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +3.66

Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

2nd & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 61 yds , DJ Barksdale return for 18 yds to the JMU 22

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.77

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 20

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.74

Emmanuel Michel run for 9 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 48

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the JMU 49

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.21

Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the JMU 49

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.99

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 17 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +0.74

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 27 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the AFA 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Zac Larrier pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 22

2nd & 13Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.18

John Lee Eldridge III run for 17 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Aiden Calvert run for 10 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the AFA 49

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Zac Larrier pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 6 yds to the JMU 45

3rd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.68

John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the JMU 32

2nd & 5Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.03

Emmanuel Michel run for 31 yds to the JMU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Zac Larrier run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 60 yds , DJ Barksdale return for 19 yds to the JMU 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.46

Jordan McCloud sacked by Payton Zdroik for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 20

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 42

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the AFA 48

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the JMU 49

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.10

Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the JMU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Zac Larrier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the JMU 42

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.43

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the JMU 31

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the JMU 30

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.80

Dane Kinamon run for 5 yds to the JMU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the JMU 23

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the JMU 21

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the JMU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the JMU 13

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Dane Kinamon run for 5 yds to the JMU 8

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Zac Larrier run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 9

4th & 5Field Goal Good+26 yds

Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOOD

4th & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 54 yds , Que Reid return for 19 yds to the JMU 30

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Kaelon Black run for 15 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Kaelon Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 44

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.25

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 12 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 6Sack-14 ydsPPA -3.40

Jordan McCloud sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 14 yards to the JMU 46

3rd & 20Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.75

Kaelon Black run for 11 yds to the AFA 43

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 48

4th & 14Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +4.14

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 24 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.50

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 17 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 7 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the JMU 49

2nd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.40

Emmanuel Michel run for 13 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.09

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 38

2nd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the JMU 30

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.80

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the JMU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.68

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 27

Situational Analysis

James Madison

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
54%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
28%
25 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
58%
12 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
60%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
67%
3 plays