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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2023Week 4
Dayton
25
-Final
40
San Diego
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Dayton by 3.3

Home Win Probability

San Diego 44%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

San Diego -3.5

Edge: Dayton +3.5 (6.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Dayton
377825
San Diego
14190740

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-327-1033-1033-1733-2540-25
San DiegoDayton

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SDDAYSDDAYSDDAYSDDAYSDDAYSDDAYSDDAYSDDAYDAYSDDAYSDDAYSDDAYDAYSDPUNT31ydPUNT1-5ydTD982ydTO40ydTD255ydFG1157ydPUNT37ydPUNT30ydPUNT59ydTO1-3ydTD123ydTO19ydTD234ydTD1075ydTD774ydTO427ydPUNT517ydPUNT3-15ydTD115ydMISS1277ydTD1180ydMISS1264ydTD3-1ydDOWNS1241ydUncategorized11yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Dayton and San Diego
StatisticDaytonSan Diego
Passing10-2419-26
Pass Yards132262
Rush Yards159146
Total Yards291408
Turnovers60
3rd Down5-148-14
Penalties6-6212-122
Possession26:1932:53

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Dayton
passing
Cole Dow
4/9, 76 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Michael Neel
18 CAR, 63 YDS
receiving
Derek Willits
3 REC, 48 YDS
San Diego
passing
Grant Sergent
19/26, 262 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Isaiah Williams
19 CAR, 113 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Ja'seem Reed
7 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.62

Grant Sergent sacked by Ca'ron Coleman for a loss of 4 yards to the USD 11

2nd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.08

Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the USD 12

3rd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Grant Sergent pass complete to Re-al Mitchell for 4 yds to the USD 16

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Aidan Lehman punt for 19 yds, downed at the USD 25

3rd & 4Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.03

Michael Neel run for a loss of 5 yards to the USD 46

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

San Diego Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) to the USD 8

1st & 23Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Isaiah Williams run for 4 yds to the USD 9

2nd & 19Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the USD 14

3rd & 14Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Isaiah Williams run for 28 yds to the USD 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Grant Sergent pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Grant Sergent pass complete to Ja'seem Reed for 6 yds to the USD 48

3rd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.40

Grant Sergent pass complete to Isaiah Smith for 16 yds to the DAY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Re-al Mitchell run for 3 yds to the DAY 33

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Grant Sergent pass incomplete

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +4.05

Grant Sergent pass complete to Josh Heverly for 33 yds for a TD (Aidan Lehman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Michael Neel run for 10 yds to the DAY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.55

Cole Dow sacked by Malachi Cooper and Garrett Carney for a loss of 4 yards to the DAY 31

2nd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Cole Dow run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 30

3rd & 15Penalty-5 yds

Dayton Penalty, False Start (Conor Clyde) to the DAY 25

3rd & 20Interception0 ydsPPA +0.31

Cole Dow pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +1.74

Grant Sergent pass complete to Ja'seem Reed for 42 yds to the DAY 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Isaiah Williams run for 13 yds for a TD (Aidan Lehman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Michael Neel run for 3 yds to the DAY 25

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.38

Michael Neel run for 11 yds to the DAY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Michael Neel run for 3 yds to the DAY 39

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Michael Neel run for 4 yds to the DAY 43

3rd & 3Penalty+15 yds

San Diego Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brian Coburn) to the USD 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

Michael Neel run for a loss of 2 yards to the USD 44

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Dante Casciola pass complete to Joey Swanson for 8 yds to the USD 36

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

4th & 4Penalty+15 yds

San Diego Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Eric Haney) to the USD 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Michael Neel run for 1 yd to the USD 20

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.58

Michael Neel run for a loss of 1 yard to the USD 21

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+38 yds

Sam Webster 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Grant Sergent pass complete to Re-al Mitchell for 2 yds to the USD 38

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Michael Neel run for a loss of 1 yard to the USD 46

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Michael Neel run for 5 yds to the USD 41

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the USD 43

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Grant Sergent pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Aydan Corrales punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the DAY 38

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.21

run for a loss of 3 yards to the DAY 35 Dante Casciola fumbled, recovered by DAY Dante Casciola

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Danny Baker punt for 45 yds, downed at the USD 20

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Isaiah Williams run for 4 yds to the USD 24

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Re-al Mitchell run for 8 yds to the USD 32 Re-al Mitchell fumbled, recovered by USD Jack D'Ambra for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-10 ydsPPA -1.71

Grant Sergent pass complete to Isaiah Williams for no gain to the USD 32 San Diego Penalty, Offensive Holding (Finley Lecky) to the USD 22

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Grant Sergent pass incomplete

3rd & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.04

Isaiah Williams run for 7 yds to the USD 29

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Aydan Corrales punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -0.99

run for a loss of 3 yards to the DAY 23 Logan Davis fumbled, recovered by USD Chase Lyons

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Grant Sergent pass complete to Ja'seem Reed for 23 yds for a TD (Aidan Lehman KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+9 ydsPPA -0.92

Michael Neel run for 9 yds to the DAY 34 Michael Neel fumbled, recovered by USD Jerry Rangel

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.39

Re-al Mitchell run for 20 yds to the DAY 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Isaiah Williams run for 14 yds for a TD (Aidan Lehman PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Mason Hackett run for 5 yds to the DAY 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Mason Hackett run for 3 yds to the DAY 33

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Cole Dow run for 3 yds to the DAY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.91

Cole Dow pass complete to Derek Willits for 23 yds to the USD 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the USD 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.10

Cole Dow pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 10 yds to the USD 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Michael Neel run for no gain to the USD 30

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.83

Dante Casciola pass complete to Joey Swanson for 17 yds to the USD 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -0.84

Gavin Lochow run for a loss of 7 yards to the USD 20

2nd & 17Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.38

Cole Dow run for 20 yds for a TD (Sam Webster KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Re-al Mitchell run for no gain to the DAY 12

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Grant Sergent pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the DAY 6

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.51

Logan Gingg run for 4 yds to the DAY 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.12

Logan Gingg run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Grant Sergent pass incomplete

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Isaiah Smith 4 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.38

Dante Casciola pass complete to Derek Willits for 17 yds to the DAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Dante Casciola pass complete to Derek Willits for 8 yds to the DAY 46

2nd & 2Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Dante Casciola pass complete to Michael Neel for 2 yds to the DAY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.99

Cole Dow pass intercepted

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Michael Neel run for 9 yds to the DAY 34

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.26

Michael Neel run for 8 yds to the DAY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Michael Neel run for 2 yds to the DAY 44

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

CASCIOLA, Dante pass to the left incomplete intended for SWANSON, Joey broken up by WICKWARE, Jayden at the DAY41. PENALTY DAY Holding on BEAM, Cade enforced 10 yards from the DAY44 to the DAY34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.35

Logan Davis run for 8 yds to the DAY 42

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Danny Baker punt for 28 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Grant Sergent pass complete to Re-al Mitchell for 3 yds to the USD 23

2nd & 7Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.65

Grant Sergent run for a loss of 5 yards to the USD 18

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

SERGENT, Grant pass to the right complete for 13 yards to REED, Ja'seem caught at the USD29 and advanced to the USD31, out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, USD False Start enforced 5 yards from the USD18 to the USD13. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 17Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.05

Grant Sergent sacked by Jack Wardzala for a loss of 8 yards to the USD 5

4th & 25Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Ca'ron Coleman blocked by Ca'ron Coleman

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Cole Dow pass complete to Alec Keathley for 15 yds for a TD (Sam Webster KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.72

Re-al Mitchell run for a loss of 3 yards to the USD 16

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Grant Sergent pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.35

Grant Sergent pass complete to Liam McHale for 22 yds to the USD 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Grant Sergent pass complete to Ja'seem Reed for 8 yds to the USD 46

2nd & 2Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.95

Isaiah Williams run for 19 yds to the DAY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Isaiah Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 36

2nd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.57

Grant Sergent pass complete to Ja'seem Reed for 8 yds to the DAY 28

3rd & 3Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.95

Re-al Mitchell run for 20 yds to the DAY 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty-5 yds

San Diego Penalty, False Start (Trey Price) to the DAY 13

1st & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.28

Grant Sergent pass complete to Ja'seem Reed for 8 yds to the DAY 5

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaiah Williams run for 3 yds to the DAY 2

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.44

Logan Gingg run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 4

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+22 yds

Aidan Lehman 22 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

San Diego Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alijah Brown) to the DAY 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Dante Casciola run for 3 yds to the DAY 46

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Dayton Penalty, False Start (Zachary McDowell) to the DAY 41

2nd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Michael Neel run for 8 yds to the DAY 49

3rd & 4Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.12

Dante Casciola sacked by Chase Lyons for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 48

4th & 5Rush+21 ydsPPA +3.59

Cole Dow run for 21 yds to the USD 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Cole Dow run for 2 yds to the USD 29

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.91

Cole Dow pass complete to Michael Neel for 28 yds to the USD 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Luke Hansen run for no gain to the USD 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Luke Hansen run for no gain to the USD 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Cole Dow run for 1 yd for a TD ( pass to Gavin Lochow for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Isaiah Williams run for no gain to the USD 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Grant Sergent pass complete to Re-al Mitchell for 2 yds to the USD 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Grant Sergent pass complete to Ja'seem Reed for 9 yds to the USD 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Grant Sergent run for 2 yds to the USD 38

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

SERGENT, Grant pass deep to the left incomplete intended for REED, Ja'seem thrown to the DAY38. PENALTY DAY Pass Interference on COPE, Cam enforced 15 yards to the DAY47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Isaiah Williams run for 4 yds to the DAY 43

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Isaiah Williams run for no gain to the DAY 43

3rd & 6Penalty+15 yds

SERGENT, Grant pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for REED, Ja'seem thrown to the DAY13. PENALTY DAY Roughing the Passer on BROWN, Chase enforced 15 yards from the DAY43 to the DAY28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the DAY 27

2nd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.63

Grant Sergent pass complete to Josh Heverly for 16 yds to the DAY 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Isaiah Williams run for 7 yds to the DAY 4

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.56

Isaiah Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 6

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Grant Sergent pass incomplete

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

San Diego Penalty, False Start (Aidan Lehman) to the DAY 11

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+29 yds

Aidan Lehman 29 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Michael Neel run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 19

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.22

Cole Dow run for no gain to the DAY 19

3rd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA +0.24

Cole Dow pass intercepted for a TD (Aidan Lehman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Dante Casciola pass complete to Joey Swanson for 4 yds to the DAY 49

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.12

Dante Casciola run for 6 yds to the USD 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.50

Dante Casciola run for 10 yds to the USD 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Cole Dow run for 7 yds to the USD 28

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Cole Dow pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Cole Dow run for 8 yds to the USD 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Cole Dow pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

4th & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.80

Dante Casciola sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the USD 14

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the USD 15

Situational Analysis

Dayton

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
29%
28 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
10 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

San Diego

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
32%
22 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
4th