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← Back to GamesNov 4, 2023Week 10
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Valparaiso by 0.1

Home Win Probability

Valparaiso 50%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Valparaiso -3

Edge: Dayton +3 (2.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 4, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Dayton
00707
Valparaiso
770721

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-014-721-7
ValparaisoDayton

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DAYVALVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALPUNT612ydPUNT37ydTD211ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT517ydPUNT31ydTO24ydPUNT3-2ydTD753ydPUNT617ydPUNT3-4ydDOWNS49ydPUNT410ydPUNT30ydEND65ydPUNT33ydTD1257ydPUNT612ydPUNT3-6ydTD952ydPUNT30ydPUNT417ydDOWNS1492ydEND633yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Dayton and Valparaiso
StatisticDaytonValparaiso
Passing16-2715-21
Pass Yards107126
Rush Yards6893
Total Yards175219
Turnovers11
3rd Down6-166-16
Penalties8-718-72
Possession27:1032:50

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Dayton
passing
Drew VanVleet
16/27, 107 YDS
rushing
Luke Hansen
15 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Gavin Lochow
5 REC, 30 YDS
Valparaiso
passing
Rowan Keefe
15/21, 126 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Ryan Mann
11 CAR, 68 YDS
receiving
Ryan Mann
2 REC, 34 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Brenner for 5 yds to the DAY 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Michael Neel run for 2 yds to the DAY 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.42

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 5 yds to the DAY 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Michael Neel run for no gain to the DAY 37

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.34

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Michael Neel for no gain to the DAY 37

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VAL 32

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.59

Rowan Keefe sacked by Mason Henry and Aiden McKinley for a loss of 7 yards to the VAL 25

2nd & 17Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.08

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Solomon Davis for 14 yds to the VAL 39

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete to Solomon Davis, broken up by Cam Cope

4th & 3Punt+2 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 53 yds , Jeremy Jonozzo returns for 2 yds to the DAY 11 Jeremy Jonozzo fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by VAL Max Samuel MATTHES punt 53 yards to the DAYTON8, Jonozzo, Jeremy return 2 yards to the DAYTON10, fumble forced by TEAM, fumble by Jonozzo, Jeremy recovered by VALPO SAMUEL at DAYTON11.

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jashon Butler run for 4 yds to the DAY 7

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.54

Jashon Butler run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-12 yds

Dayton Penalty, personal foul (Matt Lenti) to the DAY 13

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the DAY 15

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the DAY 17

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

4th & 6Penalty+5 yds

Forcum, Logan punt 36 yards to the VALPO47, GRAVES return to the DAYTON47 (Kowaleski, Dan), PENALTY VALPO roughing the kicker (BIRMINGHAM) 5 yards to the DAYTON22, NO PLAY.

4th & 1Punt+6 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VAL 36 , Colin Graves returns for 6 yds to the VAL 36

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jeffery Vercher run for no gain to the VAL 36

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+13 ydsPPA +2.26

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jeffery Vercher for 13 yds Jeffery Vercher fumbled, forced by Logan Miller, recovered by VAL Jeffery Vercher for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Brandon Jimenez for 3 yds to the DAY 48

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jashon Butler run for 5 yds to the DAY 43

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Jeffery Vercher run for 1 yd to the DAY 42

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the DAY 47

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DAY 3

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Michael Neel run for no gain to the DAY 3

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Michael Neel run for 4 yds to the DAY 7

4th & 6Penalty-3 yds

Dayton Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the DAY 4

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DAY 18

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Rowan Keefe run for 8 yds to the DAY 10

2nd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA -4.86

Brian Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the DAY 14 Brian Thomas fumbled, forced by Aiden McKinley, recovered by DAY Nathan Arthur THOMAS, B. rush for loss of 4 yards to the DAYTON14, fumble forced by McKinley, Aiden, fumble by THOMAS, B. recovered by DAYTON Arthur, Nathan at DAYTON14.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the DAY 16

2nd & 8Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.44

Drew VanVleet sacked by Sam Hafner for a loss of 9 yards to the DAY 7

3rd & 17Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 5 yds to the DAY 12

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 47

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

KEEFE pass incomplete to 19 (Miller, Logan), PENALTY DAYTON roughing passer (Schadek, Sam) 15 yards to the DAYTON38, 1ST DOWN VALPO, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

Jeffery Vercher run for no gain to the DAY 38

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.84

Rowan Keefe sacked by Jack Wardzala for a loss of 4 yards to the DAY 42

3rd & 14Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.96

Rowan Keefe run for 14 yds to the DAY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rowan Keefe run for 5 yds to the DAY 23

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete, broken up by Ca'ron Coleman

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jake Vickers for 10 yds to the DAY 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jake Vickers for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Mason Hackett run for 3 yds to the DAY 28

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mason Hackett run for 5 yds to the DAY 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.44

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 6 yds to the DAY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Drew VanVleet run for 3 yds to the DAY 42

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Jake Coleman, broken up by Tyler Geiman

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Luke Hansen run for no gain to the DAY 42

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 44 yds , Colin Graves returns for no gain to the VAL 14

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Solomon Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 13

2nd & 11Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.23

Rowan Keefe sacked by Sam Schadek and Jack Wardzala for a loss of 5 yards to the VAL 8

3rd & 16Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.02

Jeffery Vercher run for 2 yds to the VAL 10

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 34 yds, downed at the VAL 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Mason Hackett for 2 yds to the VAL 42

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Drew VanVleet run for 1 yd to the VAL 41

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Mason Hackett run for 4 yds to the VAL 37

4th & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -2.06

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 2 yds to the VAL 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.40

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Chris Gundy for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.78

Rowan Keefe sacked by Nathan Arthur for a loss of 9 yards to the VAL 41

2nd & 19Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Tytus Ragle for 4 yds to the VAL 45

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete to Chris Gundy

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeremy Jonozzo at the DAY 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Luke Hansen run for 1 yd to the DAY 13

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 3 yds to the DAY 16

3rd & 6Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.22

Drew VanVleet sacked by Onye Nwosisi for a loss of 4 yards to the DAY 12

4th & 10Punt+1 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 43 yds , Colin Graves returns for 1 yd to the VAL 46

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

VERCHER rush for 2 yards to the VALPO48 (Franks, Michael), PENALTY VALPO illegal shift 5 yards to the VALPO41, NO PLAY, PENALTY DAYTON personal foul (Schadek, Sam) 15 yards to the DAYTON44, 1ST DOWN VALPO, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Jeffery Vercher run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 45

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete to Solomon Davis

3rd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Rowan Keefe run for 7 yds to the DAY 38

4th & 4Pass Reception-10 ydsPPA -1.83

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jake Vickers for 5 yds to the DAY 33 Valparaiso Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the DAY 48

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Rowan Keefe sacked by Troy Reisner and Jack Wardzala for a loss of 7 yards to the VAL 45

2nd & 17Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Jeffery Vercher run for 6 yds to the DAY 49

0th & 17End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

3rd & 11Kickoff Return (Offense)+8 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 61 yds , Chris Gundy return for 8 yds to the VAL 12

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jashon Butler run for no gain to the VAL 12

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the VAL 15

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete to Jeffery Vercher

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jeremy Jonozzo at the DAY 43

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Mason Hackett run for 5 yds to the DAY 48

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.71

Luke Hansen run for 7 yds to the VAL 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Luke Hansen run for 7 yds to the VAL 36

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 5 yds to the VAL 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the VAL 30

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Mason Hackett run for 4 yds to the VAL 26

3rd & 5Penalty-10 yds

Hansen , Luke rush for 14 yards to the VALPO12 (CHILTON), PENALTY DAYTON holding 10 yards to the VALPO36, NO PLAY.

3rd & 15Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.71

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Derek Willits for 21 yds to the VAL 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Derek Willits, broken up by Max Franco

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the VAL 13

3rd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.18

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 8 yds to the VAL 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Luke Hansen run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Holt KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 60 yds , Chris Gundy return for 23 yds to the VAL 28

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Solomon Davis run for no gain to the VAL 28

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Ryan Mann run for 9 yds to the VAL 37

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.00

Rowan Keefe run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 35

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

Dayton Penalty, encroachment (Jr. T Spencer) to the VAL 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Ryan Mann run for 2 yds to the VAL 42

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.69

Rowan Keefe sacked by Mason Henry and Chase Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 40

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeremy Jonozzo at the DAY 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Derek Willits

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Dayton Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the DAY 12

2nd & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.10

Luke Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 11

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Luke Brenner, broken up by Colin Graves

4th & 16Punt+40 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 40 yds , Colin Graves returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 48

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the DAY 49

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Ryan Mann run for 6 yds to the DAY 43

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.76

Ryan Mann run for 1 yd to the DAY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jeffery Vercher run for 2 yds to the DAY 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.47

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jashon Butler for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 42

3rd & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.20

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Ryan Mann for 30 yds to the DAY 12 for a 1ST down Dayton Penalty, RF (Jerell Lewis) to the DAY 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Ryan Mann for 4 yds to the DAY 2

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

Ryan Mann run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 4

3rd & 0Penalty-10 yds

KEEFE pass incomplete, PENALTY VALPO holding (KLINE) 10 yards to the DAYTON14, NO PLAY.

3rd & 14Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.43

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Solomon Davis for 14 yds for a TD Dayton Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jr. T Spencer) declined (Ryan Hawk KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Luke Hansen run for no gain to the DAY 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Derek Willits, broken up by Colin Graves

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 47

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.91

Rowan Keefe run for 13 yds to the DAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ryan Mann run for 5 yds to the DAY 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.29

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Solomon Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 37

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, false start (Carter Woody) to the DAY 42

3rd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jashon Butler for 6 yds to the DAY 36

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 33 yds, downed at the DAY 3

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Hackett, Mason rush for 1 yard to the DAYTON4 (CHASTAIN), PENALTY VALPO face mask 15 yards to the DAYTON18, 1ST DOWN DAYTON, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the DAY 21

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.10

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Brenner for 10 yds to the DAY 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.13

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Dominic Vrbancic for 24 yds to the VAL 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.54

Luke Hansen run for 11 yds to the VAL 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Luke Hansen run for 5 yds to the VAL 29

2nd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Hansen for 1 yd to the VAL 28

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Luke Hansen run for 9 yds to the VAL 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the VAL 17

2nd & 8Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.35

Drew VanVleet sacked by Kevin Spelman for a loss of 7 yards to the VAL 24

3rd & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.99

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Derek Willits for no gain to the VAL 24 for a 1ST down Valparaiso Penalty, personal foul (Evan Annis) to the VAL 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.49

Drew VanVleet sacked by Sam Hafner and Kurt Kessen for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 15

2nd & 13Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.37

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 10 yds to the VAL 5

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Gavin Lochow, broken up by Colin Graves

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.04

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Dominic Vrbancic

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the VAL 8

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the VAL 11

3rd & 4Rush+35 ydsPPA +2.94

Ryan Mann run for 35 yds to the VAL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.14

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the VAL 41

2nd & 15Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.71

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 39

3rd & 17Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.24

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 38

Situational Analysis

Dayton

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
29%
21 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays
15%
13 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
27%
22 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
44%
9 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
57%
7 plays
4th
0%
1 play