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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Butler by 26.8

Home Win Probability

Butler 92%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Butler -13

Edge: Butler -13 (13.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Valparaiso
00707
Butler
0014317

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401414-717-7
ButlerValparaiso

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20VALBUTVALBUTVALBUTVALBUTBUTVALBUTVALBUTVALBUTVALBUTMISS756ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT32ydTO957ydMISS1476ydMISS1859ydMISS542ydEND1-1ydPUNT31ydDOWNS544ydTD280ydTD170ydTD1875ydTO514ydFG1529ydDOWNS40ydEND511yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Valparaiso and Butler
StatisticValparaisoButler
Passing11-2113-21
Pass Yards17289
Rush Yards117242
Total Yards289331
Turnovers11
3rd Down3-98-16
Penalties7-688-85
Possession21:0138:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Valparaiso
passing
Rowan Keefe
11/19, 172 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Solomon Davis
1 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Solomon Davis
2 REC, 68 YDS
Butler
passing
Bret Bushka
13/21, 89 YDS
rushing
Jyran Mitchell
26 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ethan Loss
4 REC, 58 YDS

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Luka Zurak kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Ryan Mann run for 8 yds to the VAL 30

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

3rd & 2Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +3.76

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Solomon Davis for 45 yds to the BUT 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the BUT 22

2nd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.08

Rowan Keefe sacked by Carson Gulgin for a loss of 4 yards to the BUT 26

3rd & 11Penalty-10 yds

KEEFE, Rowan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DAVIS, Solomon thrown to the BU0. PENALTY VAL Holding on KLINE, Noah enforced 10 yards from the BU26 to the BU36 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 21Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.63

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jashon Butler for 19 yds to the BUT 17

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BUT 22

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+39 yds

Ryan Hawk 39 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Jyran Mitchell run for 4 yds to the BUT 27

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Butler Penalty, False Start (Ethan Loss) to the BUT 22

2nd & 11Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.30

Bret Bushka pass complete to Ryan Lezon for a loss of 1 yard to the BUT 21

3rd & 12Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.10

Bret Bushka pass complete to Ethan Loss for no gain to the BUT 21

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Luka Zurak punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jashon Butler run for 2 yds to the VAL 33

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 44 yds, downed at the BUT 23

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jyran Mitchell run for no gain to the BUT 23

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.17

Bret Bushka pass complete to Ethan Loss for 29 yds to the VAL 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jyran Mitchell run for 4 yds to the VAL 44

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

run for 2 yds to the VAL 42

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.47

Bret Bushka pass complete to Ethan Loss for 7 yds to the VAL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Bret Bushka run for 5 yds to the VAL 30

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.24

Jyran Mitchell run for 8 yds to the VAL 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Bret Bushka run for 5 yds to the VAL 17

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -4.43

Jyran Mitchell run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 20 Jyran Mitchell fumbled, recovered by VAL Jimmy Pouba [SG] MITCHELL, Jyran rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards, MITCHELL, Jyran fumbled at VAL17 forced by POUBA, Jimmy, recovered by VAL POUBA, Jimmy at the VAL20, returned 0 yards to the VAL20, End of Play, clock 02:37.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jake Vickers for 2 yds to the VAL 22

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.69

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Moise Tezzo for 11 yds to the VAL 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Rowan Keefe run for no gain to the VAL 33

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.02

Ryan Mann run for 11 yds to the VAL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.47

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Solomon Davis for 23 yds to the BUT 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.27

Ryan Mann run for 12 yds to the BUT 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Brian Thomas run for no gain to the BUT 21

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Ryan Mann run for 5 yds to the BUT 16

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Brandon Jimenez for 7 yds to the BUT 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Brian Thomas run for 4 yds to the BUT 5

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Rowan Keefe run for 1 yd to the BUT 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

4th & 4Blocked Field Goal+21 yds

Ryan Hawk 21 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Bret Bushka pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.13

Jyran Mitchell run for no gain to the BUT 7

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kalil Brown) to the BUT 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Bret Bushka pass complete to Luke Wooten for 4 yds to the BUT 37

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jyran Mitchell run for 5 yds to the BUT 42

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the BUT 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jyran Mitchell run for no gain to the BUT 47

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Bret Bushka pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Bret Bushka run for 9 yds to the VAL 44

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.10

Joey Suchy run for 3 yds to the VAL 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.09

Bret Bushka sacked by Sam Hafner for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 42

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Bret Bushka run for no gain to the VAL 42

3rd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Joey Suchy run for 7 yds to the VAL 35

4th & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.06

Bret Bushka run for 5 yds to the VAL 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Joey Suchy run for 4 yds to the VAL 26

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Butler Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ethan Loss) to the VAL 34

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Bret Bushka pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Bret Bushka pass incomplete

4th & 14Field Goal Missed+51 yds

Luka Zurak 51 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Ryan Mann run for 2 yds to the VAL 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.11

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Brandon Jimenez for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.27

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Brandon Jimenez for 26 yds to the BUT 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Missed+41 yds

Ryan Hawk 41 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Kneel down by BUSHKA, Bret at BU23 (team loss of 1).

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Bret Bushka pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Bret Bushka pass complete to Luke Wooten for 1 yd to the BUT 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Bret Bushka pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Luka Zurak punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 36

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

KEEFE, Rowan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JIMENEZ, Brandon thrown to the BU35. PENALTY BU Pass Interference on MASON, Trey enforced 15 yards to the BU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Ryan Mann run for 9 yds to the BUT 40

2nd & 1Penalty+15 yds

KEEFE, Rowan pass short up the middle incomplete intended for MANN, Ryan broken up by STURTZ, Adam at the BU35. PENALTY BU Roughing the Passer on BURCH, Jack enforced 15 yards from the BU40 to the BU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jashon Butler run for 5 yds to the BUT 20

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jeffery Vercher run for 1 yd to the BUT 19

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.72

Ryan Mann run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUT 20

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.28

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.96

Jyran Mitchell run for 13 yds to the BUT 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+67 ydsPPA +5.43

Jyran Mitchell run for 67 yds for a TD Valparaiso Penalty, Personal Foul (Kevin Spelman) to the VAL 0 (Luka Zurak KICK)

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+70 ydsPPA +5.69

Solomon Davis run for 70 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Bret Bushka pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

BUSHKA, Bret pass deep to the right complete for 16 yards to LOSS, Ethan caught at the BU41 and advanced to the BU41, End of Play. PENALTY BU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on TURNER, Jack enforced 5 yards from the BU25 to the BU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Bret Bushka pass complete to Luke Wooten for 5 yds to the BUT 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.03

Bret Bushka pass complete to Ethan Loss for 22 yds to the BUT 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Joey Suchy run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Joey Audia run for 6 yds to the VAL 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.90

Joey Suchy run for 3 yds to the VAL 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Jyran Mitchell run for 4 yds to the VAL 37

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Bret Bushka pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Bret Bushka run for 5 yds to the VAL 32

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.41

Jyran Mitchell run for 3 yds to the VAL 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Jyran Mitchell run for 6 yds to the VAL 23

2nd & 4Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.56

Bret Bushka pass complete to Cameron Heald for no gain to the VAL 23

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.54

Bret Bushka run for 4 yds to the VAL 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Joey Suchy run for 3 yds to the VAL 16

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Joey Suchy run for 1 yd to the VAL 15

3rd & 6Penalty0 yds

BUSHKA, Bret pass to the left incomplete thrown to the VAL9. PENALTY VAL Personal Foul on KESSEN, Kurt enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the VAL15 to the VAL8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Bret Bushka run for 3 yds to the VAL 4

2nd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Bret Bushka pass complete to Joey Audia for 1 yd to the VAL 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Bret Bushka run for 3 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the VAL 32

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.36

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Brian Thomas for 8 yds to the VAL 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.91

Ryan Mann run for a loss of 5 yards to the VAL 35

2nd & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jashon Butler for 8 yds to the VAL 43

3rd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -0.80

Rowan Keefe pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Butler Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the BUT 42

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jyran Mitchell run for 1 yd to the BUT 43

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.80

Bret Bushka pass complete to Luke Wooten for 9 yds to the VAL 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.04

Jyran Mitchell run for 9 yds to the VAL 39

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Jyran Mitchell run for 17 yds to the VAL 22 Butler Penalty, Blocking Out Of Bounds on GONZALEZ, Fabian enforced (Fabian Gonzalez) to the VAL 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.47

Bret Bushka pass complete to Jack Bill for 10 yds to the VAL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Ethan Loss run for 3 yds to the VAL 34

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Jyran Mitchell run for 3 yds to the VAL 31

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.84

Bret Bushka run for 5 yds to the VAL 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

run for 1 yd to the VAL 25

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jyran Mitchell run for 4 yds to the VAL 21

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Jyran Mitchell run for 9 yds to the VAL 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jyran Mitchell run for no gain to the VAL 12

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.59

Bret Bushka run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 15 Bret Bushka fumbled, recovered by BUT Jyran Mitchell [SG] QB Keeper BUSHKA, Bret rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards, BUSHKA, Bret fumbled at VAL16 , recovered by BU MITCHELL, Jyran at the VAL15, returned 0 yards to the VAL15, End of Play.

3rd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jyran Mitchell run for 1 yd to the VAL 14

4th & 12Field Goal Good+32 yds

Luka Zurak 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.46

Rowan Keefe sacked by Steven Williams II for a loss of 9 yards to the VAL 20

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.09

Rowan Keefe pass complete to Jeffery Vercher for 9 yds to the VAL 29

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.25

Rowan Keefe pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Jyran Mitchell run for 3 yds to the VAL 26

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Joey Suchy run for 1 yd to the VAL 25

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jyran Mitchell run for 4 yds to the VAL 21

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.92

run for 4 yds to the VAL 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Kneel down by BUSHKA, Bret at VAL18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
35%
17 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
63%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Butler

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
22%
27 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
29%
7 plays
33%
12 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
83%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play