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← Back to GamesOct 7, 2023Week 6
Valparaiso
14
-Final
20
Drake
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Drake by 8.7

Home Win Probability

Drake 67%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Drake -4.5

Edge: Drake -4.5 (4.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Valparaiso
0001414
Drake
737320

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-017-017-720-14
DrakeValparaiso

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRADRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALPUNT33ydDOWNS944ydPUNT35ydPUNT828ydTD472ydPUNT32ydPUNT34ydPUNT32ydPUNT632ydPUNT1240ydTO842ydTO3-3ydFG346ydPUNT726ydPUNT37ydTD530ydPUNT627ydPUNT631ydPUNT38ydPUNT38ydTD437ydPUNT728ydPUNT3-1ydFG59ydTD1051ydPUNT34ydEND744yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Valparaiso and Drake
StatisticValparaisoDrake
Passing16-4017-36
Pass Yards140267
Rush Yards13546
Total Yards275313
Turnovers11
3rd Down7-194-15
Penalties7-788-75
Possession33:2626:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Valparaiso
passing
Michael Appel Jr.
11/25, 78 YDS
rushing
Brian Thomas
9 CAR, 37 YDS
receiving
Moise Tezzo
4 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD
Drake
passing
Luke Bailey
16/35, 257 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Dorian Boyland
10 CAR, 27 YDS
receiving
Mitchell January
2 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Dorian Boyland run for 3 yds to the DRKE 38

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Deyon Campbell run for no gain to the DRKE 38

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Barret Labus run for 4 yds to the VAL 30

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+25 ydsPPA +3.33

Michael Appel Jr. run for 25 yds to the DRKE 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Barret Labus run for 4 yds to the DRKE 41

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Barret Labus run for 8 yds to the DRKE 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Brian Thomas run for no gain to the DRKE 33

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the DRKE 30

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.23

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Christian Galvan run for 2 yds to the DRKE 32

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Christian Galvan run for 3 yds to the DRKE 35

3rd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.49

Luke Bailey pass complete to Christian Galvan for no gain to the DRKE 35

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 42 yds , Colin Graves returns for no gain to the VAL 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.28

Jashon Butler run for a loss of 4 yards to the VAL 11

3rd & 14Penalty+15 yds

Drake Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Linden Howe) to the VAL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Jashon Butler run for no gain to the VAL 32

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.26

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Micah Mackay for 14 yds to the VAL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.79

Jashon Butler run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 43

2nd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.71

Barret Labus run for no gain to the VAL 43

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 29 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Dorian Boyland run for 2 yds to the DRKE 30

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Dorian Boyland run for 2 yds to the DRKE 32

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.26

Luke Bailey pass complete to Hunter Johnson for 11 yds to the DRKE 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+57 ydsPPA +4.47

Luke Bailey pass complete to Mitchell January for 57 yds for a TD (Shane Dunning KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Ryan Schroeder kickoff for 45 yds , return for no gain to the VAL 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Brian Thomas run for 2 yds to the VAL 22

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 65 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Christian Galvan run for 2 yds to the DRKE 19

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Christian Galvan run for 2 yds to the DRKE 21

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Michael Appel Jr. run for no gain to the DRKE 47

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.21

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Jacob Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the VAL 45

3rd & 18Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.64

Barret Labus run for 10 yds to the DRKE 45

4th & 8Punt+31 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 31 yds , returns for no gain to the DRKE 29 , returns for no gain to the DRKE 29

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Dorian Boyland run for 1 yd to the DRKE 30

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ANNIS, Evan enforced (Evan Annis) to the DRKE 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Luke Bailey pass complete to Dorian Boyland for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

BAILEY, Luke pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for RADOCHA, Trey thrown to the VAL10. PENALTY VAL Pass Interference on RAO, Caleb enforced 15 yards to the VAL35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Dorian Boyland run for no gain to the VAL 35

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.78

Christian Galvan run for a loss of 4 yards to the VAL 39

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 39 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.60

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Brandon Jimenez for 11 yds to the VAL 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Brian Thomas run for no gain to the VAL 31

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Chris Gundy for 9 yds to the VAL 40

3rd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.28

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jalen Jones for 4 yds to the VAL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Caron Tyler run for 1 yd to the VAL 45

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.71

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Brandon Jimenez for 9 yds to the DRKE 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ryan Mann run for 5 yds to the DRKE 41

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Michael Appel Jr. run for no gain to the DRKE 41

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Barret Labus run for 1 yd to the DRKE 40

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Christian Galvan at the DRKE 7

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Luke Bailey pass complete to Christian Galvan for 6 yds to the DRKE 13

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.14

Luke Bailey pass complete to Hunter Johnson for 4 yds to the DRKE 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.65

Luke Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the DRKE 14

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +4.07

Luke Bailey pass complete to Mitchell January for 45 yds to the VAL 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.97

Luke Bailey sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the DRKE 41

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.60

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Jacob Auen for a loss of 8 yards to the DRKE 49

2nd & 18Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Moise Tezzo for 7 yds to the DRKE 42

3rd & 11Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.18

Michael Appel Jr. sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the DRKE 44

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +3.02

Luke Bailey pass complete to Trey Radocha for 46 yds to the VAL 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+27 yds

Shane Dunning 27 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.03

Brian Thomas run for 10 yds to the VAL 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Brian Thomas run for 7 yds to the DRKE 45

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.38

Michael Appel Jr. run for 9 yds to the DRKE 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.29

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the DRKE 39

2nd & 13Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Tytus Ragle for 3 yds to the DRKE 36

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 36 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.25

Dorian Boyland run for 7 yds to the DRKE 27

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.20

Ian Corwin pass complete to Luke Bailey for 10 yds to the VAL 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Christian Galvan run for 5 yds to the VAL 15

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 5Penalty+10 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Caleb Rao) to the VAL 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Luke Bailey pass complete to Gage Vander Leest for 2 yds for a TD (Shane Dunning KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Moise Tezzo for 12 yds to the VAL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jake Vickers for 6 yds to the VAL 43

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Brian Thomas run for 9 yds to the DRKE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Brian Thomas run for no gain to the DRKE 48

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Dorian Boyland run for 4 yds to the DRKE 15

3rd & 6Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.88

Luke Bailey pass complete to Sam Rodriguez for 30 yds to the DRKE 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Drake Penalty, False Start (Eli Stewart) to the DRKE 40

1st & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Luke Bailey pass complete to Ian Corwin for 2 yds to the DRKE 42

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 3 yds to the VAL 19

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jashon Butler run for 5 yds to the VAL 24

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Christian Galvan run for 2 yds to the DRKE 25

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Luke Bailey pass complete to Hunter Johnson for 6 yds to the DRKE 31

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brian Thomas run for 5 yds to the DRKE 32

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brian Thomas run for 4 yds to the DRKE 28

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, False Start (Noah Kline) to the DRKE 33

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

4th & 6Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +4.93

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 33 yds for a TD (Patrick Oliva KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Dorian Boyland run for no gain to the DRKE 16

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.19

Luke Bailey pass complete to Trey Radocha for 12 yds to the DRKE 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

BAILEY, Luke pass incomplete intended for JANUARY, Mitchell thrown to the DRK40. PENALTY VAL Face mask on GEIMAN, Tyler enforced 15 yards from the DRK28 to the DRK43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BAILEY, Luke pass up the middle complete for 4 yards to OLTHOFF, Parker caught at the DRK43 and advanced to the DRK47 (ANNIS, Evan). PENALTY DRK Holding enforced 10 yards from the DRK43 to the DRK33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Christian Galvan run for 1 yd to the DRKE 34

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.30

Luke Bailey pass complete to Trey Radocha for 10 yds to the DRKE 44

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 42 yds , returns for no gain to the VAL 12

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.61

Jeffrey Jackson sacked by Finn Claypool for a loss of 8 yards to the VAL 4

2nd & 18Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.03

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Brian Thomas for 2 yds to the VAL 6

3rd & 16Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Jeffrey Jackson run for 5 yds to the VAL 11

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.27

Luke Bailey pass complete to Tim Nesslage for 11 yds to the VAL 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Drake Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Parker Althaus) to the VAL 36

2nd & 23Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

3rd & 23Penalty-5 yds

Drake Penalty, Delay Of Game (Luke Bailey) to the VAL 41

3rd & 28Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.90

Luke Bailey run for 16 yds to the VAL 25

4th & 12Field Goal Good+42 yds

Shane Dunning 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.81

Jeffrey Jackson run for 10 yds to the DRKE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Jeffrey Jackson run for 9 yds to the DRKE 32

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.46

Jeffrey Jackson run for 3 yds to the DRKE 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Ryan Mann for 9 yds to the DRKE 20

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.42

Ryan Mann run for 8 yds to the DRKE 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.49

Ryan Mann run for a loss of 3 yards to the DRKE 15

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

3rd & 13Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.42

Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Moise Tezzo for 15 yds for a TD (Patrick Oliva KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Christian Galvan run for 2 yds to the VAL 44

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Luke Woodson run for 1 yd to the VAL 43

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Dorian Boyland run for 6 yds to the VAL 37

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Drake Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the VAL 42

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 24 yds

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

JACKSON, Jeffrey pass to the left incomplete thrown to the VAL30. PENALTY Before the snap, DRK Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the VAL18 to the VAL23. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Drake Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SHIPLA, Jake enforced (Jake Shipla) to the VAL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.35

Jeffrey Jackson run for 14 yds to the DRKE 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jeffrey Jackson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

Jeffrey Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the DRKE 38 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
21%
28 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
47%
15 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Drake

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
29%
21 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
23%
13 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
4th