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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

South Dakota State by 24.9

Home Win Probability

South Dakota State 92%

Market (Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado))

South Dakota State -18.5

Edge: South Dakota State -18.5 (6.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North Dakota
0701421
South Dakota State
14771442

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-014-721-728-735-1442-21
South Dakota StateNorth Dakota

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SDSNDSDSNDSDSNDNDSDSNDSDSNDSDSNDSDSNDSDSTD775ydPUNT35ydTD977ydTD1575ydTD1891ydEND730ydPUNT65ydTD764ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT614ydPUNT37ydTD531ydTD1275ydTD575ydTD1075ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Dakota and South Dakota State
StatisticNorth DakotaSouth Dakota State
Passing25-3313-22
Pass Yards166167
Rush Yards68266
Total Yards234433
Turnovers00
3rd Down6-136-8
Penalties3-176-68
Possession29:3930:21

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Dakota
passing
Tommy Schuster
19/24, 118 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Gaven Ziebarth
5 CAR, 22 YDS
receiving
Red Wilson
5 REC, 45 YDS
South Dakota State
passing
Mark Gronowski
13/22, 167 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Isaiah Davis
16 CAR, 132 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Jaxon Janke
3 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaiah Davis run for 5 yds to the SDST 30

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.32

Isaiah Davis run for 11 yds to the SDST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Isaiah Davis run for 11 yds to the UND 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.75

Mark Gronowski run for 14 yds to the UND 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +0.74

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 27 yds to the UND 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Isaiah Davis run for 6 yds to the UND 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Gaven Ziebarth run for 5 yds to the UND 30

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Quincy Vaughn run for no gain to the UND 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tucker Large at the SDST 23

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.93

Isaiah Davis run for 22 yds to the SDST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.80

Amar Johnson run for 10 yds to the UND 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Amar Johnson run for 7 yds to the UND 38

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Amar Johnson for 13 yds to the UND 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Amar Johnson run for 2 yds to the UND 23

2nd & 8Penalty+10 yds

Mark Gronkowski pass complete to Amar Johnson for 10 yds to the UND 13. North Dakota Penalty, Face mask (6 yards) (C.J. Siegel) to the UND 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Isaiah Davis run for no gain to the UND 6

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Isaiah Davis 6 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Tommy Schuster run for 1 yd to the UND 26

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Tommy Schuster run for 6 yds to the UND 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.81

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Wesley Eliodor for 9 yds to the UND 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.47

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Elijah Klein for 19 yds to the SDST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Quincy Vaughn run for 2 yds to the SDST 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Red Wilson for 7 yds to the SDST 31

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.40

Quincy Vaughn run for 2 yds to the SDST 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Gaven Ziebarth for 3 yds to the SDST 26

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Gaven Ziebarth run for 1 yd to the SDST 25

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 4 yds to the SDST 21

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

North Dakota Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDST 26

4th & 7Penalty0 yds

SCHUSTER, Tommy pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DEMONTAGNAC, Nate thrown to the SDS0, clock 13:02. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on GALES, DyShawn enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the SDS11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.58

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jaden Norby for 10 yds to the SDST 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Isaiah Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDST 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Isaiah Smith run for 1 yd to the SDST 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Quincy Vaughn run for no gain to the SDST 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Quincy Vaughn run for 1 yd for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

C.J. Elrichs kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the SDST 9

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.44

Isaiah Davis run for 11 yds to the SDST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDST 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Isaiah Davis for 5 yds to the SDST 28

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Amar Johnson run for 1 yd to the SDST 29

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.26

Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd to the SDST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Mark Gronowski run for 6 yds to the SDST 36

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.59

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Isaiah Davis for 4 yds to the SDST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Amar Johnson run for 3 yds to the SDST 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.32

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Heins for 25 yds to the UND 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Amar Johnson run for 3 yds to the UND 29

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

DAVIS, Isaiah rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the UND23 (MCNEAL, Malachi). PENALTY SDS Holding on HEINS, Zach enforced 10 yards from the UND29 to the UND39 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.14

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 18 yds to the UND 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.58

Amar Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UND 23

2nd & 12Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.70

Amar Johnson run for 13 yds to the UND 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

South Dakota State Penalty, False Start (Evan Beerntsen) to the UND 15

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.28

run for 9 yds to the UND 6

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.82

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 6 yds for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 9 yds to the UND 28

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Wright for 4 yds to the UND 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 6 yds to the UND 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.57

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Wesley Eliodor for 4 yds to the UND 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 7 yds to the UND 49

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

0th & 3End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Gaven Ziebarth run for 4 yds to the UND 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Wesley Eliodor for 1 yd to the UND 30

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Gaven Ziebarth run for 6 yds to the UND 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.92

Tommy Schuster sacked by Adam Bock for a loss of 8 yards to the UND 28

2nd & 18Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Wesley Eliodor for 2 yds to the UND 30

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Isaiah Davis run for 11 yds to the SDST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.16

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 19 yds to the UND 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.26

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Heins for 10 yds to the UND 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.59

Isaiah Davis run for 13 yds to the UND 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-8 yds

South Dakota State Penalty, personal foul (-8 Yards) to the UND 3

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.08

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 1 yd to the UND 20

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

3rd & 9Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.18

Tommy Schuster sacked by Cade Terveer for a loss of 4 yards to the UND 16

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tucker Large at the SDST 47

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Amar Johnson run for 2 yds to the SDST 49

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.65

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Heins for 11 yds to the UND 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Amar Johnson run for 2 yds to the UND 38

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Amar Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UND 39

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Bo Belquist at the UND 10

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Luke Skokna run for 5 yds to the UND 15

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Luke Skokna run for 2 yds to the UND 17

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Bo Belquist run for no gain to the UND 17

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 65 yds

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.26

Isaiah Davis run for 14 yds to the UND 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Amar Johnson run for 7 yds to the UND 10

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.33

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Isaiah Davis for 9 yds to the UND 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Isaiah Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jaden Norby for 9 yds to the UND 34

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Gaven Ziebarth run for 6 yds to the UND 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Tommy Schuster run for 7 yds to the UND 47

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

North Dakota Penalty, False Start (Easton Kilty) to the UND 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Gaven Ziebarth for a loss of 1 yard to the UND 41

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.82

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 11 yds to the SDST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.75

Tommy Schuster run for 14 yds to the SDST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Max Gunderson for 8 yds to the SDST 26

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Isaiah Smith run for 1 yd to the SDST 25

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.25

Isaiah Smith run for 2 yds to the SDST 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Luke Skokna run for 3 yds to the SDST 20

3rd & 7Penalty0 yds

SCHUSTER, Tommy pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BELQUIST, Bo broken up by ARRELL, Steven at the SDS0. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on ARRELL, Steven enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the SDS5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 5 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Isaiah Davis run for 7 yds to the SDST 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.91

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Angel Johnson for 10 yds to the SDST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.99

Angel Johnson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.33

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +4.90

Angel Johnson run for 50 yds for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Trey Feeney pass complete to Caden Dennis for 6 yds to the UND 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.50

Trey Feeney pass complete to Elijah Klein for 4 yds to the UND 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Luke Skokna run for 7 yds to the UND 42

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

FEENEY, Trey pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DENNIS, Caden thrown to the SDS20. PENALTY SDS Pass Interference on LEE, Jalen B. enforced 15 yards to the SDS43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Trey Feeney pass complete to Red Wilson for 8 yds to the SDST 35

2nd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.18

Trey Feeney pass complete to Red Wilson for 4 yds to the SDST 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Trey Feeney pass complete to Red Wilson for 4 yds to the SDST 27

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Trey Feeney pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.64

Trey Feeney pass complete to Red Wilson for 22 yds to the SDST 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Trey Feeney pass incomplete

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Trey Feeney run for 5 yds for a TD (C.J. Elrichs KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

[SG] Kneel down by MASON, Chase at SDS34 (team loss of 1).

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

[SG] Kneel down by MASON, Chase at SDS33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

North Dakota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
59%
22 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
43%
7 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

South Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
58%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
83%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
71%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play