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← Back to GamesNov 18, 2023Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

South Dakota State by 39.3

Home Win Probability

South Dakota State 98%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 18, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Missouri StateMissouri State
307717
South Dakota State
1477735

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-314-321-328-1035-17
South Dakota StateMissouri State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSSDSMSSDSMSSDSMSSDSMSSDSSDSMSSDSMSSDSMSSDSMSSDSPUNT35ydTD678ydFG1367ydTD580ydPUNT33ydTD1074ydPUNT623ydTO25ydMISS4-4ydMISS651ydPUNT925ydTD793ydTD1168ydDOWNS1060ydPUNT736ydPUNT516ydTD470ydTD875ydEND310yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Missouri State and South Dakota State
StatisticMissouri StateSouth Dakota State
Passing23-3516-23
Pass Yards261323
Rush Yards82154
Total Yards343477
Turnovers01
3rd Down5-133-8
Penalties8-654-40
Possession26:0533:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Missouri State
passing
Jordan Pachot
23/35, 261 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Celdon Manning
3 CAR, 41 YDS
receiving
Raylen Sharpe
8 REC, 86 YDS
South Dakota State
passing
Mark Gronowski
16/23, 323 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Isaiah Davis
17 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jadon Janke
10 REC, 187 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Pachot pass complete to DVontae Key for 5 yds to the MOST 30

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Jayden Becks run for no gain to the MOST 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 54 yds

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Isaiah Davis run for 10 yds to the SDST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 22 yds to the MOST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Isaiah Davis run for 4 yds to the MOST 42

2nd & 6Penalty+5 yds

Missouri State Penalty, Offsides (Sterling Smithson) to the MOST 37

2nd & 1Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.35

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 35 yds to the MOST 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.29

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 18 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Jayden Becks run for 1 yd to the MOST 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.14

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Larry Wright III for 30 yds to the SDST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Jayden Becks run for 8 yds to the SDST 26

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.42

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 4 yds to the SDST 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jayden Becks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDST 23

2nd & 11Penalty-5 yds

Missouri State Penalty, False Start (Erick Cade) to the SDST 28

2nd & 16Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Jordan Pachot run for 7 yds to the SDST 21

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Larry Wright III for 11 yds to the SDST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

DVontae Key run for 4 yds to the SDST 6

2nd & 6Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jordan Pachot sacked by Ryan Van Marel for a loss of 1 yard to the SDST 7

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Missouri State Penalty, False Start (Erick Cade) to the SDST 12

3rd & 12Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.23

Jordan Pachot sacked by Cade Terveer for a loss of 4 yards to the SDST 16

4th & 16Field Goal Good+33 yds

Owen Rozanc 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Amar Johnson run for 10 yds to the SDST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 14 yds to the SDST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Amar Johnson run for 4 yds to the SDST 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +1.96

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 36 yds to the MOST 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

GRONOWSKI, Mark pass up the middle complete for 5 yards to JANKE, Jaxon caught at the MSU20 and advanced to the MSU11 (CHAMBERS, Tahj). PENALTY SDS Unnecessary Roughness on MCCORMICK, Mason enforced 15 yards from the MSU16 to the MSU31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +4.00

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Zach Heins for 31 yds for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Celdon Manning run for 3 yds to the MOST 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.27

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for no gain to the MOST 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 9 yds to the SDST 35

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Isaiah Davis run for 2 yds to the SDST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

GRONOWSKI, Mark pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JANKE, Jaxon thrown to the MSU27. PENALTY MSU Holding on JOE, Lemondre enforced 10 yards from the SDS37 to the SDS47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Amar Johnson run for 4 yds to the MOST 46

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Amar Johnson run for 1 yd to the MOST 45

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Mark Gronowski run for 4 yds to the MOST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.50

Mark Gronowski run for 14 yds to the MOST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.19

Isaiah Davis run for 13 yds to the MOST 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.61

Isaiah Davis run for 13 yds to the MOST 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Isaiah Davis 1 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jayden Becks run for 2 yds to the MOST 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 4 yds to the MOST 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.34

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 14 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordan Pachot pass complete to DVontae Key for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jayden Becks run for 3 yds to the SDST 47

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

Missouri State Penalty, False Start (Erick Cade) to the MOST 48

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.79

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 16 yds to the SDST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-11 ydsPPA -0.99

Angel Johnson run for a loss of 11 yards to the SDST 15 Angel Johnson fumbled, recovered by MOST Caleb Blake [SG] JOHNSON, Angel rush up the middle for a loss of 11 yards, JOHNSON, Angel fumbled at SDS22 forced by LLOYD, Jared, recovered by MSU BLAKE, Caleb at the SDS15, returned 0 yards to the SDS15, End of Play, clock 04:08.

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.62

Jayden Becks run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDST 19

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

4th & 14Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Owen Rozanc 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaiah Davis run for 5 yds to the SDST 25

2nd & 5Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.33

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 40 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Isaiah Davis run for 8 yds to the MOST 27

2nd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.71

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for no gain to the MOST 27

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.20

Isaiah Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 29

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Hunter Dustman 46 yd FG MISSED

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

DAVIS, Isaiah rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the SDS24 (SMITHSON, Sterling). PENALTY MSU Offsides on GOREE, Devin enforced 5 yards from the SDS22 to the SDS27. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.04

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 9 yds to the SDST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

South Dakota State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SDST 32

1st & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Amar Johnson run for 6 yds to the SDST 38

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.91

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 14 yds to the MOST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Amar Johnson run for no gain to the MOST 48

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

DUSTMAN, Hunter punt 38 yards to the MSU10, fair catch by SHARPE, Raylen, clock 10:54. PENALTY Before the snap, SDS Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MSU48 to the SDS47. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.92

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 31 yds to the MOST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jayden Becks run for 2 yds to the MOST 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.78

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 29 yds to the SDST 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.15

Jayden Becks run for 27 yds to the SDST 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Jayden Becks run for 1 yd to the SDST 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 3 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDST 35

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Amar Johnson run for 5 yds to the SDST 40

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.34

Mark Gronowski run for 3 yds to the SDST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.28

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Grahm Goering for 17 yds to the MOST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Mark Gronowski run for 6 yds to the MOST 34

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the MOST 31

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.32

Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds to the MOST 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.18

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 10 yds to the MOST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Amar Johnson run for 2 yds to the MOST 17

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

GRONOWSKI, Mark pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JANKE, Jaxon thrown to the MSU0. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on JOE, Lemondre enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the MSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Amar Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jordan Pachot run for 2 yds to the MOST 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 7 yds Jmariyae Robinson fumbled, recovered by MOST [SG] PACHOT, Jordan pass to the left complete for 7 yards to ROBINSON, Jmariyae caught at the MSU33, ROBINSON, Jmariyae fumbled at MSU34 forced by STALBIRD, Isaiah out of bounds to the MSU34.

4th & 1Rush+32 ydsPPA +3.86

Celdon Manning run for 32 yds to the SDST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Lance Mason for 9 yds to the SDST 25

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.40

Celdon Manning run for 6 yds to the SDST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.10

Raylen Sharpe run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDST 26

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Celdon Manning for 11 yds to the SDST 15

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.50

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Isaiah Davis run for 9 yds to the SDST 24

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Isaiah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

GRONOWSKI, Mark pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JANKE, Jadon thrown to the MSU27. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on POWELL, Avery enforced 15 yards to the SDS42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Isaiah Davis run for 5 yds to the SDST 47

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.16

Amar Johnson run for 11 yds to the MOST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Mark Gronowski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Isaiah Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 43

3rd & 11Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.51

Mark Gronowski sacked by Cooper Roy for a loss of 6 yards to the MOST 49

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Hunter Dustman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Raylen Sharpe at the MOST 11

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.41

Jayden Becks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 10

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 6 yds to the MOST 16

3rd & 5Penalty+10 yds

PACHOT, Jordan pass short to the left incomplete intended for SHARPE, Raylen thrown to the MSU20. PENALTY SDS Holding on LARGE, Tucker enforced 10 yards from the MSU16 to the MSU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Lance Mason for 5 yds to the MOST 31

2nd & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.14

Jayden Becks run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 27

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 11 yds to the SDST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Angel Johnson run for no gain to the SDST 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.79

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Angel Johnson for 23 yds to the MOST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.01

Mark Gronowski pass complete to Jadon Janke for 36 yds for a TD (Hunter Dustman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 3 yds to the MOST 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.13

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Lance Mason for 7 yds to the MOST 42

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.53

Jayden Becks run for 6 yds to the MOST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 7 yds to the SDST 45

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.39

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the SDST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 40 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Chase Mason run for 5 yds to the MOST 38

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.41

Angel Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 40

3rd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.77

Chase Mason run for 7 yds to the MOST 33 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Missouri State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
22 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
63%
8 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

South Dakota State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
66%
29 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
67%
6 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays