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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Youngstown State by 12

Home Win Probability

Youngstown State 76%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Youngstown State -10

Edge: Youngstown State -10 (2.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Missouri StateMissouri State
7714028
Youngstown State
14177644

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-714-714-1421-1428-1438-1438-2841-2844-28
Youngstown StateMissouri State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSYSMSYSMSYSMSYSMSYSMSYSYSMSYSMSYSMSYSMSYSMSYSMSTD445ydTD875ydPUNT520ydTD772ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT619ydTD998ydTD585ydPUNT3-5ydTD861ydPUNT37ydFG239ydTD475ydTD677ydPUNT36ydTD1086ydPUNT34ydPUNT412ydPUNT38ydTO316ydFG1168ydPUNT3-7ydFG930ydEND1484yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Missouri State and Youngstown State
StatisticMissouri StateYoungstown State
Passing25-4027-34
Pass Yards341415
Rush Yards95106
Total Yards436521
Turnovers10
3rd Down6-137-13
Penalties11-937-71
Possession25:5834:02

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Missouri State
passing
Jordan Pachot
25/38, 341 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jacardia Wright
7 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Raylen Sharpe
8 REC, 109 YDS
Youngstown State
passing
Mitch Davidson
26/33, 390 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Dra Rushton
15 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Bryce Oliver
6 REC, 169 YDS, 2 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +0.88

Jakairi Moses run for 27 yds to the YSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Jakairi Moses run for 9 yds to the YSU 9

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.54

Jordan Pachot run for 9 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Tyshon King for 4 yds to the YSU 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Jake Benio for 4 yds to the YSU 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.25

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 4 yds to the YSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mitch Davidson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +3.56

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 48 yds to the MOST 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Dra Rushton run for 2 yds to the MOST 13

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Tyshon King run for 3 yds to the MOST 10

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.84

Mitch Davidson pass complete to C.J. Charleston for 10 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 7 yds to the MOST 28

2nd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 12 yds to the MOST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the MOST 40

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Jordan Pachot run for 1 yd to the MOST 41

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 33 yds, Max Tomczak return for 2 yds to the YSU 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Dra Rushton run for 3 yds to the YSU 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.78

Beau Brungard pass complete to Max Tomczak for 25 yds to the MOST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Tyshon King run for 1 yd to the MOST 43

2nd & 9Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.64

Mitch Davidson pass complete to C.J. Charleston for 32 yds to the MOST 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Tyshon King run for 3 yds to the MOST 8

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Tyshon King run for 5 yds to the MOST 3

3rd & 2Penalty0 yds

Missouri State Penalty, Offsides (Tim Brantley Jr.) to the MOST 3

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.46

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Jake Benio for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Clay Medvec kickoff for 65 yds , Jayden Becks return for 16 yds to the MOST 16. PENALTY YSU Targeting (Devin Johnson) 15 yds from MOST 16 to MOST 31

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Jakairi Moses run for 3 yds to the MOST 34

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Missouri State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MOST 29

2nd & 12Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.58

Jordan Pachot sacked by Dylan Wudke and Deamontae Diggs for a loss of 8 yards to the MOST 21

3rd & 20Penalty-5 yds

Missouri State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MOST 16

3rd & 25Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.71

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 23 yds to the MOST 39

4th & 2Penalty-15 yds

Missouri State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MOST 24

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 53 yds, Max Tomczk return 4 yds to the YSU 27

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Dra Rushton run for 1 yd to the YSU 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Dra Rushton for 6 yds to the YSU 34

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.70

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 7 yds to the YSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Jake Benio for 7 yds to the YSU 48

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Dra Rushton run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.83

Mitch Davidson run for a loss of 4 yards to the YSU 46

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 50 yds, downed at the MOST 2

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Jakairi Moses run for no gain to the MOST 2

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.84

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Gary Clinton for 18 yds to the MOST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the MOST 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.43

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 12 yds to the MOST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Jakairi Moses run for 2 yds to the MOST 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 4 yds to the MOST 38

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.38

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

(08:30) PACHOT, Jordan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for KEY, D'Vontae thrown to the YSU20, clock 08:27. PENALTY YSU Offsides on ALLEN, Hunter enforced 5 yards from the YSU50 to the YSU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.74

Jacardia Wright run for 45 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Spencer Grosz kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the YSU 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Max Tomczak for 7 yds to the YSU 22

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Colt Sechrest for 6 yds to the YSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Tyshon King run for 6 yds to the YSU 34

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Mitch Davidson pass incomplete

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Missouri State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jared Lloyd) to the YSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+51 ydsPPA +3.92

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 51 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 9 yds to the MOST 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Missouri State Penalty, False Start (Gary Clinton) to the MOST 29

3rd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.52

Jordan Pachot sacked by Devin Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the MOST 20

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 41 yds, Max Tomczak return 0 yds to the YSU 39

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Tyshon King run for 4 yds to the YSU 43

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tyshon King run for 5 yds to the YSU 48

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.07

Tyshon King run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Luke Hensley for 4 yds to the MOST 46

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Dra Rushton run for 11 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Dra Rushton run for 2 yds to the MOST 33

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.72

Mitch Davidson run for 13 yds to the MOST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 20 yds for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Clay Medvec kickoff for 49 yds , Jayden Becks return 14 yds to the MOST 30. PENALTY MOST Holding (Hunter Wood) 10 yds from MOST 26 to MOST 16

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jordan Pachot run for 5 yds to the MOST 21

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 4 yds to the MOST 25

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.58

Jakairi Moses run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 23

4th & 3Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Deamontae Diggs blocked by Deamontae Diggs

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +1.25

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 39 yds to the MOST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+27 yds

Andrew Lastovka 27 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Cyrus Traugh for 12 yds to the YSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Dra Rushton run for 5 yds to the YSU 42

2nd & 5Pass Reception+57 ydsPPA +4.00

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Cyrus Traugh for 57 yds to the MOST 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Dra Rushton run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.45

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 28 yds to the YSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jayden Becks run for no gain to the YSU 49

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.96

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jayden Becks for 15 yds to the YSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jayden Becks run for 5 yds to the YSU 29

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.86

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 29 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Tyshon King run for 6 yds to the YSU 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Mitch Davidson pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Mitch Davidson pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 45 yds , Raylen Sharpe return 36 yds to the YSU 40. PENALTY MOST Holding (Steven Ward) 10 yds from MOST 24 to MOST 14

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 13

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 11Penalty0 yds

(08:32) PACHOT, Jordan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for OWENS, Terique broken up by JAKUBEC, Troy at the MSU30, clock 08:29. PENALTY YSU Offsides on LEE, Devin declined YSU Pass Interference on JAKUBEC, Troy enforced 15 yards to the MSU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.80

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Stetson Moore for no gain to the MOST 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.90

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 12 yds to the MOST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.85

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 27 yds to the YSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the YSU 31

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.42

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 14 yds to the YSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.38

Jakairi Moses run for 10 yds to the YSU 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Lance Mason for 7 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dra Rushton run for 2 yds to the YSU 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Dra Rushton run for 2 yds to the YSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Mitch Davidson pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 46 yds , Raylen Sharpe return for 14 yds to the MOST 39. PENALTY MOST Illegal Block in Back (Jamal McMurrin) 10 yds from MOST 33 to MOST 23

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.16

Jacardia Wright run for 14 yds to the MOST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.84

Jakairi Moses run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 35

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tyjon Jones at the YSU 7

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.35

Tyshon King run for a loss of 1 yard to the YSU 6

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.27

Mitch Davidson pass complete to C.J. Charleston for 9 yds to the YSU 15

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Mitch Davidson pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jordan Pachot run for 4 yds to the YSU 45

2nd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.00

Jacardia Wright run for 12 yds to the YSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.10

Jordan Pachot pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Dra Rushton run for 11 yds to the YSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Dra Rushton run for 2 yds to the YSU 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.82

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Max Tomczak for 8 yds to the YSU 41 Youngstown State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daryan Bowling) to the YSU 30

2nd & 11Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.22

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Tyshon King for 26 yds to the MOST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Max Tomczak for 9 yds to the MOST 35

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Mitch Davidson pass incomplete

3rd & 1Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.84

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Luke Hensley for 17 yds to the MOST 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Tyshon King run for 2 yds to the MOST 16

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Dra Rushton run for 5 yds to the MOST 11

3rd & 3Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.49

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Mitch Davidson for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 12

4th & 4Field Goal Good+29 yds

Andrew Lastovka 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the MOST 31

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Jordan Pachot run for no gain to the MOST 31

3rd & 4Sack-13 ydsPPA -0.76

Jordan Pachot sacked by Devin Lee for a loss of 13 yards to the MOST 18

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 39 yds, downed at the YSU 43

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Tyshon King run for 2 yds to the YSU 45

2nd & 8Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.14

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Max Tomczak for 4 yds to the MOST 49 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Avery Powell) to the MOST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Tyshon King run for 4 yds to the MOST 32

2nd & 6Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.97

Mitch Davidson pass complete to Nate Damron for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 33

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.35

Dra Rushton run for 8 yds to the MOST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Dra Rushton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 26

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Beau Brungard run for 2 yds to the MOST 24

3rd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.46

Beau Brungard run for a loss of 3 yards to the MOST 27

4th & 12Field Goal Good+44 yds

Andrew Lastovka 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.74

Jordan Pachot sacked by Deamontae Diggs for a loss of 11 yards to the MOST 4

2nd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 21Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.70

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 26 yds to the MOST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the MOST 36

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.69

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the MOST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 7 yds to the MOST 48

2nd & 3Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +1.36

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 33 yds to the YSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.10

Jordan Pachot sacked by Andres Lehrmann for a loss of 7 yards to the YSU 26

2nd & 17Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.96

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 14 yds to the YSU 12

4th & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.22

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 11 yds to the YSU 1 for a 1ST down

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

1st & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Missouri State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
45%
29 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
44%
9 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Youngstown State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
39%
28 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
73%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
63%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th