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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Southern Illinois by 13.2

Home Win Probability

Southern Illinois 81%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Missouri StateMissouri State
3107020
Southern Illinois
1497333

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284214-014-320-1020-1323-1330-2033-20
Southern IllinoisMissouri State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SIMSSIMSSIMSSIMSSIMSSIMSSIMSSIMSSIMSSITD375ydPUNT32ydTD854ydFG1271ydPUNT33ydTD753ydTD1274ydFG1467ydFG651ydPUNT55ydPUNT712ydTD678ydTD765ydTO836ydFG946ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT620ydDOWNS844ydEND3-6yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Missouri State and Southern Illinois
StatisticMissouri StateSouthern Illinois
Passing24-3726-35
Pass Yards305285
Rush Yards31122
Total Yards336407
Turnovers10
3rd Down6-144-12
Penalties6-429-65
Possession28:2131:39

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Missouri State
passing
Jordan Pachot
14/21, 176 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jacardia Wright
13 CAR, 61 YDS
receiving
Jmariyae Robinson
8 REC, 119 YDS
Southern Illinois
passing
Nic Baker
26/35, 285 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Romeir Elliott
9 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Vinson Davis
9 REC, 84 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Nic Baker pass complete to Ryan Schwendeman for 11 yds to the SIU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Nic Baker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +6.19

Ro Elliott run for 64 yds for a TD (Thomas Burks KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jacob Clark pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MOST 20

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Jacob Clark pass incomplete

4th & 8Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Shane Roth blocked by Shane Roth

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Ro Elliott run for 8 yds to the MOST 46

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Ro Elliott run for 2 yds to the MOST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.54

Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 12 yds to the MOST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Nic Baker run for 4 yds to the MOST 28

2nd & 6Penalty-3 yds

BAKER, Nic pass up the middle complete for -3 yards to DAVIS, Vinson caught at the MSU31 and advanced to the MSU31 (SMITH, Darion). PENALTY MSU Face mask on SMITH, Darion enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the MSU28 to the MSU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nic Baker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.37

Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 9 yds to the MOST 5

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Ro Elliott run for no gain to the MOST 5

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.85

Ro Elliott run for 5 yds for a TD (Thomas Burks KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Jacob Clark pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 10 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Jacob Clark pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 11 yds to the MOST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 12 yds to the SIU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

Jacob Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the SIU 44

2nd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Jacardia Wright run for 8 yds to the SIU 36

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jacob Clark pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.37

Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 17 yds to the SIU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.55

Jacardia Wright run for 13 yds to the SIU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the SIU 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jacob Clark run for 2 yds to the SIU 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jacob Clark pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Owen Rozanc 21 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Spencer Grosz kickoff for 61 yds , return for no gain to the SIU 30

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.28

Nic Baker sacked by Darion Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the SIU 26

2nd & 14Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Nic Baker pass complete to Jaelin Benefield for 7 yds to the SIU 33

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Nic Baker pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Nathan Torney punt for 20 yds, downed at the MOST 47

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.99

Jacob Clark sacked by Iverson Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 43

2nd & 14Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 6 yds to the MOST 49

3rd & 8Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.28

Jacob Clark pass complete to Terique Owens for 36 yds to the SIU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jakairi Moses run for no gain to the SIU 15

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jacob Clark pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Jacob Clark pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the SIU 7

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.95

Jacob Clark pass complete to Gary Clinton for 7 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ro Elliott run for 5 yds to the SIU 31

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.06

Ro Elliott run for 8 yds to the SIU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Justin Strong run for 1 yd to the SIU 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.14

Nic Baker pass complete to Aidan Quinn for 13 yds to the MOST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Nic Baker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 1 yd to the MOST 46

3rd & 9Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.95

Nic Baker pass complete to Zach Gibson for 30 yds to the MOST 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.68

Ro Elliott run for 11 yds to the MOST 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty+3 yds

BAKER, Nic pass short to the left incomplete intended for DAVIS, Vinson broken up by POWELL, Avery at the MSU0. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on POWELL, Avery enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards to the MSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.00

Ro Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 3

2nd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.41

Nic Baker pass complete to Aidan Quinn for no gain to the MOST 3

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Nic Baker pass incomplete

4th & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.92

Justin Strong run for 3 yds for a TD (Thomas Burks PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.42

Jacardia Wright run for 17 yds to the MOST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MOST 41

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Jacob Clark pass complete to Hunter Wood for 6 yds to the MOST 47

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.42

Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the SIU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Jacardia Wright run for 7 yds to the SIU 42

2nd & 3Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.30

Jacob Clark sacked by Branson Combs and Kam Bowdry for a loss of 5 yards to the SIU 47

3rd & 8Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.64

Jacob Clark pass complete to DVontae Key for 16 yds to the SIU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Celdon Manning run for 3 yds to the SIU 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jacob Clark pass incomplete

3rd & 7Penalty+5 yds

CLARK, Jacob pass deep up the middle intercepted by BROWN, Iverson at the SIU6 intended for KEY, D'Vontae. Brown return for 94 yards to the MSU0, TOUCHDOWN SIU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:55 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY SIU Offsides on VARGA, Tim enforced 5 yards from the SIU28 to the SIU23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.43

Jacob Clark run for 12 yds to the SIU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the SIU 1

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the SIU 2

3rd & 2Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.09

Jordan Pachot sacked by Zach Burrola for a loss of 9 yards to the SIU 11

4th & 11Field Goal Good+28 yds

Owen Rozanc 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Nic Baker pass complete to Aidan Quinn for 9 yds to the SIU 39

2nd & 1Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.73

Nic Baker pass complete to Izaiah Hartrup for 14 yds to the MOST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Nic Baker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.06

Nic Baker run for 28 yds to the MOST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Nic Baker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Field Goal Good+36 yds

Thomas Burks 36 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jacardia Wright run for 7 yds to the MOST 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 9 yds to the MOST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MOST 43

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Missouri State Penalty, False Start (Larry Wright III) to the MOST 38

3rd & 13Rush-8 ydsPPA -0.45

run for a loss of 8 yards to the MOST 30

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Justin Strong run for 3 yds to the SIU 32

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Southern Illinois Penalty, False Start (Zach Gibson) to the SIU 27

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Nic Baker pass complete to Justin Strong for 6 yds to the SIU 33

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Southern Illinois Penalty, Illegal Snap on CAUGHELL, Jacob enforced (Jacob Caughell) to the SIU 28

3rd & 11Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.34

Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 23 yds to the MOST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.71

Nic Baker pass complete to Justin Strong for 12 yds to the MOST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.56

Justin Strong run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 41

2nd & 14Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.87

Nic Baker pass complete to Justin Strong for a loss of 5 yards to the MOST 46

3rd & 19Penalty-15 yds

Southern Illinois Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on HARDEN JR., Derek enforced (-15 Yards) to the SIU 41

4th & 32Punt0 yds

Nathan Torney punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Raylen Sharpe at the MOST 22

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Pachot sacked by Branson Combs and Dante Cleveland for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 18

3rd & 14Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.74

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 24 yds to the MOST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jayden Becks run for no gain to the MOST 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.87

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 12 yds to the SIU 46 for a 1ST down Southern Illinois Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BOWDRY, Kam enforced (Kam Bowdry) to the SIU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Hunter Wood for 31 yds for a TD (Owen Rozanc KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Shaun Lester run for 1 yd to the SIU 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.02

Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 27 yds to the MOST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.56

Shaun Lester run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 41

2nd & 14Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Nic Baker pass complete to Justin Strong for 9 yds to the MOST 32

3rd & 5Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.84

Nic Baker sacked by Darion Smith and Sterling Smithson for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 36

4th & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.98

Nic Baker pass complete to Zach Gibson for 17 yds to the MOST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Nic Baker pass complete to Aidan Quinn for 19 yds for a TD (Thomas Burks KICK)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 21

2nd & 14Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.24

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 18 yds to the MOST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 8 yds to the MOST 47

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Celdon Manning run for 6 yds to the SIU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.96

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jacardia Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 49

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.70

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 25 yds to the SIU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.75

Jordan Pachot sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the SIU 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 7 yds to the SIU 46

2nd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.22

Nic Baker pass complete to Izaiah Hartrup for 3 yds to the SIU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Nic Baker pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Shaun Lester run for 6 yds to the MOST 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.15

Nic Baker pass complete to Justin Strong for 28 yds to the MOST 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.58

Shaun Lester run for a loss of 3 yards to the MOST 20

2nd & 13Penalty-5 yds

Southern Illinois Penalty, False Start (Chase Evans) to the MOST 25

2nd & 18Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 6 yds to the MOST 19

3rd & 12Penalty+5 yds

BAKER, Nic pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GIBSON, Zach broken up by JOE, Lemondre at the MSU0. PENALTY MSU Offsides on WILLIAMS, Jalen enforced 5 yards from the MSU19 to the MSU14 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Nic Baker pass complete to Aidan Quinn for 4 yds to the MOST 10

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

Southern Illinois Penalty, False Start (Ryan Schwendeman) to the MOST 15

4th & 8Field Goal Good+32 yds

Thomas Burks 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

PACHOT, Jordan pass up the middle complete for 29 yards to ROBINSON, Jmariyae caught at the MSU40 and advanced to the SIU46 (JULES, PJ;CLEVELAND, Dante). PENALTY MSU Holding on LILLIBRIDGE, Hutson enforced 10 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.22

Jordan Pachot sacked by Devin Cowan for a loss of 8 yards to the MOST 7

2nd & 28Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.01

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 28Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.05

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 14 yds to the MOST 21

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Shaun Lester run for 1 yd to the SIU 33

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.74

Shaun Lester run for a loss of 2 yards to the SIU 31

3rd & 11Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.55

Nic Baker pass complete to Zach Gibson for 24 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Justin Strong run for no gain to the MOST 45

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.65

Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for a loss of 3 yards to the MOST 48

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Nic Baker pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Nathan Torney punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.06

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 27 yds to the MOST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 3 yds to the MOST 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.31

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Terique Owens for 7 yds to the SIU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Southern Illinois Penalty, Offsides (Tim Varga) to the SIU 43

1st & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA -0.40

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the SIU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -2.01

Jordan Pachot pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the SIU 41

4th & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Pachot pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Kneel down by SIU at SIU39 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Kneel down by SIU at SIU37 (team loss of 2).

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Kneel down by SIU at SIU35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Missouri State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
3 plays
42%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
33%
9 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Southern Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
35%
26 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
67%
9 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play