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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana by 39.6

Home Win Probability

Montana 98%

Market (Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado))

Montana -23.5

Edge: Montana -23.5 (16.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Northern Colorado
00000
Montana
014121440

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-026-033-040-0
MontanaNorthern Colorado

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MONNCMONNCMONNCMONNCNCMONNCMONNCMONNCMONNCNCMONNCMONNCMONNCMONNCMONPUNT610ydPUNT30ydMISS638ydPUNT38ydPUNT820ydPUNT38ydMISS1042ydTD30ydDOWNS532ydDOWNS1247ydPUNT68ydTD440ydPUNT36ydEND423ydDOWNS743ydTD768ydTD22ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT32ydPUNT518ydPUNT424ydPUNT3-1ydTD743ydPUNT36ydTD975ydPUNT511ydEND2-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northern Colorado and Montana
StatisticNorthern ColoradoMontana
Passing7-2316-29
Pass Yards76170
Rush Yards18285
Total Yards94455
Turnovers21
3rd Down1-157-15
Penalties1-109-90
Possession24:4435:16

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northern Colorado
passing
Jacob Sirmon
6/20, 43 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
David Afari
17 CAR, 46 YDS
receiving
Jamarii Robinson
2 REC, 40 YDS
Montana
passing
Keali'i Ah Yat
9/13, 89 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Eli Gillman
14 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Aaron Fontes
5 REC, 66 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Nick Ostmo run for 4 yds to the MONT 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Clifton McDowell run for 4 yds to the MONT 33

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.83

Clifton McDowell run for 10 yds to the MONT 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Clifton McDowell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

Nick Ostmo run for a loss of 1 yard to the MONT 42

3rd & 11Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.69

Clifton McDowell sacked by Marcus Howard for a loss of 7 yards to the MONT 35

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Travis Benham punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.89

Jacob Sirmon sacked by Alex Gubner for a loss of 7 yards to the UNCO 13

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

3rd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.03

David Afari run for 7 yds to the UNCO 20

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.48

Clifton McDowell pass complete to Aaron Fontes for 16 yds to the UNCO 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.89

Eli Gillman run for 17 yds to the UNCO 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Eli Gillman run for 5 yds to the UNCO 27

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Clifton McDowell pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Clifton McDowell pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Grant Glasgow 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

David Afari run for 1 yd to the UNCO 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Ty Arrington for 8 yds to the UNCO 36

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

David Afari run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNCO 35

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Junior Bergen at the MONT 11

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Nick Ostmo run for 4 yds to the MONT 15

1st & 10Penalty+6 yds

MCDOWELL, Clifton pass short up the middle complete for 6 yards to RACANELLI, Sawyer caught at the UM18 and advanced to the UM18 (JOHNSON, Dustin;KNAPKE, Jordan), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY UM Pass Interference on SHAFER, Evan UNC Targeting on JOHNSON, Dustin , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.48

Nick Ostmo run for 6 yds to the MONT 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Clifton McDowell pass complete to Nick Ostmo for 6 yds to the MONT 27

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Clifton McDowell pass complete to Nick Ostmo for 3 yds to the MONT 30

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.91

Eli Gillman run for 3 yds to the MONT 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.52

Clifton McDowell sacked by Jacob Stanton for a loss of 5 yards to the MONT 28

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Clifton McDowell pass incomplete

3rd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Clifton McDowell run for 3 yds to the MONT 31

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Travis Benham punt for 57 yds, downed at the UNCO 12

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

David Afari run for 3 yds to the UNCO 15

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Kyle Helbig for 5 yds to the UNCO 20

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 50 yds, downed at the MONT 30

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Eli Gillman run for 2 yds to the MONT 32

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.06

Keali'i Ah Yat pass complete to Aaron Fontes for 14 yds to the MONT 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Eli Gillman run for 9 yds to the UNCO 45

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Eli Gillman run for 2 yds to the UNCO 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Nick Ostmo run for 8 yds to the UNCO 35

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

AH YAT, Keali'i pass short to the left complete for 28 yards to OSTMO, Nick caught at the UNC30 and advanced to the UNC7 (CHEEKS, Carver). PENALTY UM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BROWN, Liam enforced 5 yards from the UNC35 to the UNC40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.82

Keali'i Ah Yat pass complete to Evan Shafer for 9 yds to the UNCO 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Keali'i Ah Yat pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Nick Ostmo run for 3 yds to the UNCO 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Keali'i Ah Yat pass incomplete

4th & 7Blocked Field Goal+45 yds

Grant Glasgow 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Hornbeak run for no gain to the UNCO 28

3rd & 10Interception Return Touchdown+48 ydsPPA -6.93

Jaxon Lee 48 Yd Interception Return (Nico Ramos Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.37

Hank Gibbs pass complete to Jamarii Robinson for 33 yds to the MONT 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

David Afari run for no gain to the MONT 32

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Hank Gibbs pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.22

Hank Gibbs sacked by Kellen Detrick for a loss of 1 yard to the MONT 33

4th & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.47

Hank Gibbs pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Clifton McDowell run for 5 yds to the MONT 38

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Clifton McDowell run for 4 yds to the MONT 42

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.29

Clifton McDowell run for 4 yds to the MONT 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Montana Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MONT 37

1st & 19Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Clifton McDowell run for 5 yds to the MONT 42

2nd & 14Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.02

Clifton McDowell sacked by Marcus Howard for a loss of 6 yards to the MONT 36

3rd & 20Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.75

Clifton McDowell pass complete to Ryan Simpson for 19 yds to the UNCO 45

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.19

Eli Gillman run for 4 yds to the UNCO 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

GILLMAN, Eli rush to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the UNC29 (STANTON, Jacob). PENALTY UM Holding on SHAFER, Evan declined Before the snap, UM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UNC41 to the UNC46. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Clifton McDowell run for 3 yds to the UNCO 43

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Clifton McDowell run for 5 yds to the UNCO 38

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Clifton McDowell pass incomplete

4th & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -1.46

Travis Benham pass intercepted

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.96

Hank Gibbs sacked by Riley Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the UNCO 9

2nd & 21Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.05

David Afari run for 8 yds to the UNCO 17

3rd & 13Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.10

Hank Gibbs sacked by Kale Edwards for a loss of 7 yards to the UNCO 10

4th & 20Penalty+15 yds

Montana Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaxon Lee) to the UNCO 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

David Afari run for 3 yds to the UNCO 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 41 yds , returns for no gain to the UNCO 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.56

Keali'i Ah Yat pass complete to Aaron Fontes for 19 yds to the UNCO 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Keali'i Ah Yat pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Keali'i Ah Yat pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.52

Keali'i Ah Yat pass complete to Junior Bergen for 21 yds for a TD (Nico Ramos KICK)

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

David Afari run for no gain to the UNCO 34

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 6 yds to the UNCO 40

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Junior Bergen at the MONT 20

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Nick Ostmo run for 7 yds to the MONT 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Keali'i Ah Yat pass complete to Nick Ostmo for 8 yds to the MONT 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Keali'i Ah Yat pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Nick Ostmo run for 8 yds to the MONT 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Jamarii Robinson for 7 yds to the UNCO 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.00

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Jacquez Robertson for 11 yds to the UNCO 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

SIRMON, Jacob pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MUNROE, Brayden thrown to the UM35. PENALTY UM Roughing the Passer on JANACARO, Levi enforced 15 yards from the UNC43 to the UM42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Montana Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MONT 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

David Afari run for a loss of 1 yard to the MONT 28

2nd & 11Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.53

Jacob Sirmon run for a loss of 4 yards to the MONT 32

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

4th & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.76

Clifton McDowell run for 19 yds to the UNCO 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Xavier Harris run for 4 yds to the UNCO 45

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Xavier Harris run for 3 yds to the UNCO 42

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.50

Clifton McDowell pass complete to Aaron Fontes for 13 yds to the UNCO 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.21

Clifton McDowell run for 12 yds to the UNCO 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Eli Gillman run for 11 yds to the UNCO 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Eli Gillman run for 6 yds for a TD (Nico Ramos PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

David Afari run for 2 yds to the UNCO 27

2nd & 8Interception Return Touchdown+34 ydsPPA -7.47

Braxton Hill 34 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.18

Jacob Sirmon sacked by Riley Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the UNCO 17

2nd & 18Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.13

David Afari run for 8 yds to the UNCO 25

3rd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.20

David Afari run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNCO 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Nick Ostmo run for 2 yds to the MONT 49

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Clifton McDowell pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Clifton McDowell pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Travis Benham punt for 28 yds, downed at the UNCO 23

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Jordan Hornbeak run for 2 yds to the UNCO 25

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.67

Jordan Hornbeak run for 13 yds to the UNCO 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jordan Hornbeak run for no gain to the UNCO 38

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

David Afari run for 3 yds to the UNCO 41

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.29

Eli Gillman run for 17 yds to the MONT 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Eli Gillman run for 4 yds to the MONT 40

2nd & 6Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.15

Keali'i Ah Yat pass complete to Eli Gillman for a loss of 1 yard to the MONT 39

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Keali'i Ah Yat pass complete to Aaron Fontes for 4 yds to the MONT 43

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Travis Benham punt for 45 yds, downed at the UNCO 12

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

David Afari run for no gain to the UNCO 12

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.25

Jacob Sirmon sacked by Riley Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the UNCO 6

3rd & 16Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Jordan Hornbeak run for 5 yds to the UNCO 11

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Junior Bergen at the UNCO 43

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.48

Clifton McDowell run for 11 yds to the UNCO 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Nick Ostmo run for 8 yds to the UNCO 24

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.26

Nick Ostmo run for 5 yds to the UNCO 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Clifton McDowell run for 1 yd to the UNCO 18

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Clifton McDowell pass complete to Keelan White for 4 yds to the UNCO 14

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.04

Clifton McDowell run for 9 yds to the UNCO 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty-10 yds

GILLMAN, Eli rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UNC0, TOUCHDOWN UM, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UM Holding on BROWN, Liam enforced 10 yards from the UNC5 to the UNC15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Penalty-5 yds

Montana Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNCO 20

1st & 20Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.12

Clifton McDowell pass complete to Sawyer Racanelli for 20 yds for a TD (Nico Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Fisher Clements for 6 yds to the UNCO 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Keali'i Ah Yat run for 6 yds to the MONT 31

2nd & 4Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.56

Eli Gillman run for 15 yds to the MONT 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

GILLMAN, Eli rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the UNC46 (WARREN, Braylen). PENALTY UM Holding on SHAFER, Evan enforced 10 yards from the UM46 to the UM36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Eli Gillman run for 7 yds to the MONT 43

2nd & 13Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.47

Keali'i Ah Yat pass complete to Xavier Harris for 11 yds to the UNCO 46

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.32

Keali'i Ah Yat run for 6 yds to the UNCO 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.58

Nick Ostmo run for 21 yds to the UNCO 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.28

Nick Ostmo run for 11 yds to the UNCO 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Keali'i Ah Yat pass complete to Ryan Simpson for 4 yds to the UNCO 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Eli Gillman run for 4 yds for a TD (Nico Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

David Afari run for 3 yds to the UNCO 31

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.63

David Afari run for 11 yds to the UNCO 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

David Afari run for 1 yd to the UNCO 43

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.28

Jordan Hornbeak run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNCO 40

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordan Hornbeak run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNCO 39

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Drew Deck at the MONT 17

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

[NH] Kneel down by UM at UM15 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.15

[NH] Kneel down by UM at UM13 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Northern Colorado

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
16%
19 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
25%
12 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
29%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

Montana

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
56%
32 plays
75%
4 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
33%
9 plays
38%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
100%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play