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← Back to GamesNov 11, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Sacramento State by 32.1

Home Win Probability

Sacramento State 96%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 11, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Cal Poly
10137030
Sacramento StateSacramento State
14177341

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-37-314-1014-1321-1328-1331-2338-2338-3041-30
Sacramento StateCal Poly

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CPSSCPSSCPSSCPSSCPSSCPSSCPSSSSCPSSCPSSCPSSCPSSCPSSCPSSFG864ydTD663ydPUNT31ydTD466ydTD775ydPUNT935ydFG1158ydTD454ydPUNT38ydTD575ydTD480ydPUNT31ydFG978ydFG247ydPUNT37ydTO417ydTD14ydPUNT520ydTO454ydTD869ydFG1070ydPUNT39ydPUNT412ydTO549ydPUNT850ydDOWNS624ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Cal Poly and Sacramento State
StatisticCal PolySacramento State
Passing38-5917-26
Pass Yards494313
Rush Yards45225
Total Yards539538
Turnovers21
3rd Down2-126-12
Penalties3-235-38
Possession29:3730:23

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Cal Poly
passing
Sam Huard
37/58, 483 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Paul Holyfield Jr.
7 CAR, 27 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Michael Briscoe
3 REC, 124 YDS, 2 TD
Sacramento State
passing
Carson Conklin
17/26, 313 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Marcus Fulcher
20 CAR, 121 YDS
receiving
Jared Gipson
5 REC, 154 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +3.12

Sam Huard pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 43 yds to the SAC 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 5 yds to the SAC 25

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Giancarlo Woods run for 2 yds to the SAC 23

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.47

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 6 yds to the SAC 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 5 yds to the SAC 12

2nd & 5Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.54

Sam Huard pass complete to Michael Otterstedt for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 14

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Sam Huard pass complete to Dominique Thompson for 5 yds to the SAC 9

4th & 2Field Goal Good+26 yds

Noah Serna 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Carson Conklin pass complete to Parker Clayton for 8 yds to the SAC 45

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Marcus Fulcher run for 7 yds to the CP 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Carson Conklin run for 4 yds to the CP 44

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Marcus Fulcher run for 5 yds to the CP 39

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.78

Marcus Fulcher run for 5 yds to the CP 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +2.94

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 34 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 1 yd to the CP 22

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Penalty+50 yds

Cal Poly Penalty, Personal Foul (Donovan Saunders) to the CP 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Marcus Fulcher run for 1 yd to the CP 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.88

Carson Conklin pass complete to Devin Gandy for 7 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 16 yds to the CP 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 12 yds to the SAC 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.60

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 11 yds to the SAC 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.72

Sam Huard pass complete to Troy Fletcher for no gain to the SAC 36

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Sam Huard pass complete to Carlton Brown III for 7 yds to the SAC 29

4th & 3Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +4.19

Sam Huard pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 29 yds for a TD (Noah Serna KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for no gain to the SAC 19

2nd & 10Penalty+10 yds

CONKLIN, Carson pass to the right incomplete intended for GIPSON, Jared thrown to the SAC30. PENALTY CP Holding on RAPOLLA, Kai enforced 10 yards from the SAC19 to the SAC29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 6 yds to the SAC 35

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.65

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 5 yds to the SAC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Marcus Fulcher run for 1 yd to the SAC 41

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.03

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 14 yds to the CP 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Marcus Fulcher run for no gain to the CP 45

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Carson Conklin pass complete to Carlos Hill for a loss of 1 yard to the CP 46

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 31 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Bo Kelly pass complete to Bryson Allen for 11 yds to the CP 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.08

Sam Huard pass complete to Dominique Thompson for 23 yds to the CP 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.81

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 10 yds to the SAC 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.35

Sam Huard pass complete to Michael Otterstedt for 13 yds to the SAC 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Troy Fletcher run for 2 yds to the SAC 26

3rd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Sam Huard pass complete to Paul Holyfield Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the SAC 27

4th & 9Field Goal Good+44 yds

Noah Serna 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Zeke Burnett run for 3 yds to the SAC 49

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.36

Marcus Fulcher run for 10 yds to the CP 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Marcus Fulcher run for 2 yds to the CP 39

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.71

Carson Conklin pass complete to Marshel Martin for 39 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 4 yds to the CP 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 4 yds to the CP 33

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for no gain to the CP 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 42 yds, downed at the SAC 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Michael Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAC 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Marcus Fulcher run for 6 yds to the SAC 34

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.34

Marcus Fulcher run for 6 yds to the SAC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +2.20

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 45 yds to the CP 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Carson Conklin pass complete to Carlos Hill for 15 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Sam Huard pass complete to Dominique Thompson for 12 yds to the CP 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Sam Huard pass complete to Carlton Brown III for 16 yds to the CP 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +5.15

Sam Huard pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 52 yds for a TD (Noah Serna KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Marcus Fulcher run for 1 yd to the SAC 36

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Connor Stutz punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Xavier Oliphant at the CP 17

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.72

Sam Huard sacked by Josh Cashiola for a loss of 5 yards to the CP 12

2nd & 15Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.73

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 20 yds to the CP 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 5 yds to the CP 37

2nd & 5Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.69

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 37 yds to the SAC 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Sam Huard pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Sam Huard pass complete to Troy Fletcher for 8 yds to the SAC 5

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 2Field Goal Good+23 yds

Noah Serna 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +2.31

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 47 yds to the CP 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+32 yds

Zach Schreiner 32 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Marcus Fulcher run for 2 yds to the SAC 37

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Carson Conklin run for no gain to the SAC 37

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Carson Conklin pass complete to Carlos Hill for 5 yds to the SAC 42

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Xavier Oliphant at the CP 10

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 8 yds to the CP 18

2nd & 2Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.28

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 9 yds to the CP 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.30

Sam Huard pass intercepted

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.02

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 15 yds to the CP 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sam Huard pass complete to Paul Holyfield Jr. for 5 yds to the CP 45

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Anderson Grover at the SAC 20

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Sacramento State Penalty, False Start (Devin Gandy) to the SAC 15

1st & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Carson Conklin pass complete to Marcus Fulcher for 7 yds to the SAC 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.45

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 36 yds to the CP 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.57

Carson Conklin pass complete to Devin Gandy for 16 yds to the CP 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.28

Carson Conklin pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Troy Fletcher run for 11 yds to the CP 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +1.98

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 41 yds to the SAC 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Troy Fletcher run for 4 yds to the SAC 13

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Troy Fletcher run for 2 yds to the SAC 11

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.30

Sam Huard pass complete to Dominique Thompson for 6 yds to the SAC 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Michael Otterstedt run for 2 yds to the SAC 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Serna KICK)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.07

Marcus Fulcher run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAC 22

2nd & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.26

Carson Conklin pass complete to Devin Gandy for 8 yds to the SAC 30

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.76

Carson Conklin pass complete to Marcus Fulcher for 7 yds to the SAC 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Carson Conklin pass complete to Marshel Martin for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.28

Carson Conklin pass complete to Carlos Hill for 35 yds to the CP 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.67

Marcus Fulcher run for 10 yds to the CP 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty-5 yds

Sacramento State Penalty, False Start (Jett Stanley) to the CP 10

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Cal Poly Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Bryson Allen) to the CP 5

1st & 5Penalty-10 yds

HILL, Carlos rush to the right for no gain to the CP5 (JONES, Je'Kob). PENALTY SAC Holding on SLATER, Jackson enforced 10 yards from the CP5 to the CP15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.74

Marcus Fulcher run for a loss of 5 yards to the CP 20

2nd & 20Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.63

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 12 yds to the CP 8

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Marcus Fulcher run for 4 yds to the CP 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Zach Schreiner 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 4 yds to the CP 28

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 4 yds to the CP 32

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Sam Huard pass complete to Troy Fletcher for 1 yd to the CP 33

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Marcus Fulcher run for 16 yds to the SAC 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.97

Carson Conklin sacked by Elijah Ponder for a loss of 4 yards to the SAC 42

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Sam Huard pass complete to Paul Holyfield Jr. for 1 yd to the CP 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 6 yds to the CP 28

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.99

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 13 yds to the CP 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.84

Sam Huard pass complete to Dominique Thompson for 29 yds to the SAC 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.19

Sam Huard pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 5 yds to the SAC 15

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the SAC 19

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.50

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the SAC 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Sacramento State Penalty, Illegal Snap on MEJIA, Nathan enforced (Nathan Mejia) to the SAC 17

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Marcus Fulcher run for 2 yds to the SAC 19

2nd & 13Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.75

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 38 yds to the CP 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Marcus Fulcher run for 2 yds to the CP 41

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Devin Gandy run for 1 yd to the CP 40

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Xavier Oliphant at the CP 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sam Huard pass complete to Paul Holyfield Jr. for 5 yds to the CP 18

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.77

Sam Huard pass complete to Dominique Thompson for 10 yds to the CP 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Sam Huard pass complete to Dominique Thompson for 9 yds to the CP 37

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.35

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Sam Huard pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

[NH] Kneel down by CONKLIN, Carson at CP38 (team loss of 1).

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

[NH] Kneel down by CONKLIN, Carson at CP39 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Cal Poly

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
34 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
64%
11 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
33%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Sacramento State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
44%
27 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
67%
3 plays
40%
10 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play
43%
7 plays
0%
1 play
4th