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← Back to GamesOct 22, 2023Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cal Poly by 9

Home Win Probability

Cal Poly 68%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Cal Poly +2.5

Edge: Cal Poly +2.5 (11.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 22, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Northern Colorado
737017
Cal Poly
7100724

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-714-1017-10
Cal PolyNorthern Colorado

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCCPNCCPCPNCCPNCCPNCCPNCCPNCTD1275ydPUNT518ydPUNT38ydPUNT3-10ydTD324ydFG953ydTD975ydPUNT38ydFG1274ydPUNT35ydTO767ydTO324ydTO757ydUncategorized311yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northern Colorado and Cal Poly
StatisticNorthern ColoradoCal Poly
Passing7-1420-28
Pass Yards88228
Rush Yards10164
Total Yards189292
Turnovers22
3rd Down4-80-4
Penalties4-180-0
Possession14:1318:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northern Colorado
passing
Jacob Sirmon
7/14, 88 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
David Afari
10 CAR, 52 YDS
receiving
Blake Haggerty
2 REC, 39 YDS
Cal Poly
passing
Sam Huard
20/28, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Mark Biggins
8 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Bryson Allen
5 REC, 68 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

David Afari run for 9 yds to the UNCO 34

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.46

David Afari run for 10 yds to the UNCO 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jacob Sirmon run for 3 yds to the UNCO 47

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.13

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Blake Haggerty for 25 yds to the CP 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jacquez Robertson run for 5 yds to the CP 23

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Ty Arrington for 10 yds to the CP 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

David Afari run for 7 yds to the CP 6

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

David Afari run for no gain to the CP 6

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.45

David Afari run for 4 yds to the CP 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Zain Zinicola 2 Yd pass from Jacob Sirmon (Hunter Green Kick)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Mark Biggins run for 8 yds to the CP 24

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 7 yds to the CP 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Mark Biggins run for 2 yds to the CP 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Sam Huard pass complete to Mark Biggins for 1 yd to the CP 34

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jesse Ehrlich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Blake Haggerty at the UNCO 25

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

David Afari run for 7 yds to the UNCO 32

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Jacob Sirmon run for 1 yd to the UNCO 33

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Hank Gibbs run for no gain to the UNCO 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Xavier Oliphant at the CP 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Troy Fletcher run for 2 yds to the CP 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.38

Sam Huard sacked by Sam Iongi-Amituanai and Vincent King for a loss of 12 yards to the CP 15

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 61 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.80

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 19 yds to the UNCO 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty+3 yds

HUARD, Sam pass short to the left incomplete intended for WOODS, Giancarlo thrown to the UNC0, clock 02:55. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on GILLIS, Nathaniel enforced 3 yards to the UNC2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Mark Biggins run for 1 yd to the UNCO 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Mark Biggins run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Serna KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Fisher Clements for 5 yds to the UNCO 42

2nd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.53

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Blake Haggerty for 14 yds to the CP 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Darius Stewart run for 9 yds to the CP 35

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

David Afari run for 3 yds to the CP 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.18

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Jamarii Robinson for 28 yds to the CP 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete Northern Colorado Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jacob Sirmon) to the CP 10

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+27 yds

Hunter Green 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Kendric Sanders run for 9 yds to the CP 34

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Kendric Sanders run for 7 yds to the CP 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Sam Huard pass complete to Tyrece Fairly-Diyem for 5 yds to the CP 46

2nd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.45

Sam Huard pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 16 yds to the UNCO 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Kendric Sanders run for 3 yds to the UNCO 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 7Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.93

Sam Huard pass complete to Dominique Thompson for 27 yds to the UNCO 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Sam Huard pass complete to Logan Booher for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Serna KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

David Afari run for 7 yds to the UNCO 37

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.94

Darius Stewart run for 1 yd to the UNCO 38

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Jacob Sirmon pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Xavier Oliphant at the CP 7

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mark Biggins run for 5 yds to the CP 12

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.60

Mark Biggins run for 11 yds to the CP 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.36

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 16 yds to the CP 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Mark Biggins run for 7 yds to the CP 46

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.46

Sam Huard pass complete to Michael Otterstedt for 6 yds to the UNCO 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Sam Huard pass complete to Tyrece Fairly-Diyem for 12 yds to the UNCO 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Kendric Sanders run for 9 yds to the UNCO 27

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Kendric Sanders run for 3 yds to the UNCO 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Sam Huard run for 1 yd to the UNCO 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 4 yds to the UNCO 19

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+36 yds

Noah Serna 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

David Afari run for 1 yd to the UNCO 29

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Darius Stewart run for 7 yds to the UNCO 36

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

Northern Colorado Penalty, False Start (Austin Lawrence) to the UNCO 31

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Jacquez Robertson run for 2 yds to the UNCO 33

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Hunter Green punt for 59 yds, downed at the CP 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Sam Huard pass complete to Tyrece Fairly-Diyem for 9 yds to the CP 17

2nd & 1Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.14

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 10 yds to the CP 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Sam Huard pass complete to Paul Holyfield Jr. for 2 yds to the CP 29

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Sam Huard pass complete to Paul Holyfield Jr. for 4 yds to the CP 33

3rd & 4Penalty+10 yds

HUARD, Sam pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BRISCOE, Michael thrown to the UNC30, clock 00:54. PENALTY UNC Holding on LEWIS, Tizell enforced 10 yards from the CPM33 to the CPM43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.28

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 17 yds to the UNCO 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.49

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 15 yds to the UNCO 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.30

Sam Huard pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jacob Sirmon run for 4 yds to the UNCO 35

2nd & 6Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.28

Jacquez Robertson run for 20 yds to the CP 45 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.52

Jacob Sirmon pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Mark Biggins run for 3 yds to the CP 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.19

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 18 yds to the CP 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Sam Huard pass complete to Michael Otterstedt for 8 yds to the UNCO 46

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Kendric Sanders run for 4 yds to the UNCO 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.61

Sam Huard pass complete to Tyrece Fairly-Diyem for 24 yds to the UNCO 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.41

Sam Huard pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

David Afari run for 4 yds to the UNCO 24

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Zain Zinicola run for 3 yds to the UNCO 27

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.09

Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Zain Zinicola for 4 yds to the UNCO 31 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Northern Colorado

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
54%
13 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
4th

Cal Poly

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
61%
23 plays
2nd
71%
7 plays
100%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play