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← Back to GamesOct 15, 2023Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 43.8

Home Win Probability

Montana State 99%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Montana State -39

Edge: Montana State -39 (4.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 15, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Cal Poly
676019
Montana State
211771459

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-621-628-631-638-1345-1952-1959-19
Montana StateCal Poly

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSCPCPCPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPCPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSPUNT3-7ydTD33ydPUNT30ydTD536ydTD555ydPUNT36ydTD269ydPUNT30ydPUNT30ydPUNT33ydTD684ydPUNT37ydFG43ydPUNT53ydPUNT39ydTD460ydTD687ydEND1-1ydMISS1064ydPUNT33ydTD865ydTD876ydPUNT3-1ydTD1076ydPUNT32ydTD360ydPUNT729ydEND448yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Cal Poly and Montana State
StatisticCal PolyMontana State
Passing21-3914-24
Pass Yards233243
Rush Yards73335
Total Yards306578
Turnovers00
3rd Down1-132-8
Penalties6-505-55
Possession31:1228:48

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Cal Poly
passing
Sam Huard
19/36, 225 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Mark Biggins
10 CAR, 54 YDS
receiving
Evan Burkhart
6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Montana State
passing
Sean Chambers
7/15, 151 YDS
rushing
Jared White
14 CAR, 93 YDS
receiving
Ty McCullouch
4 REC, 119 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-17 ydsPPA -2.10

Ty McCullouch run for a loss of 17 yards to the MTST 18 Ty McCullouch fumbled, recovered by MTST Ty McCullouch

2nd & 27Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 27Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.04

Jared White run for 10 yds to the MTST 28

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 59 yds, downed at the CP 13

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Mark Biggins run for 3 yds to the CP 16

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt Return Touchdown+65 ydsPPA -6.69

Ty McCullouch 65 Yd Punt Return (Brendan Hall Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Mark Biggins run for 3 yds to the CP 28

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Mark Biggins run for a loss of 3 yards to the CP 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.29

Sam Huard pass complete to Troy Fletcher for 10 yds to the MTST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Montana State Penalty, Defensive Holding (TEAM) to the MTST 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Troy Fletcher run for no gain to the MTST 16

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.28

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 16 yds for a TD (Noah Serna PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Jared White run for 3 yds to the MTST 48

2nd & 7Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.15

Sean Chambers pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 38 yds to the CP 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Sean Chambers pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 6 yds to the CP 8

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.75

Sean Chambers run for 8 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 8 yds to the CP 33

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

BIGGINS, Mark rush up the middle for no gain to the CPM33 (GREBE, Brody). PENALTY CPM Holding enforced 10 yards from the CPM33 to the CPM23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.35

Sam Huard pass complete to Bryson Allen for 8 yds to the CP 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jesse Ehrlich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ty McCullouch at the MTST 31

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jared White run for 5 yds to the MTST 36

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +5.50

Sean Chambers run for 64 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 55 yds, downed at the MTST 20

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Sean Chambers pass complete to Marqui Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the MTST 17

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Jared White run for 3 yds to the MTST 20

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Xavier Oliphant at the CP 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Sam Huard pass complete to Kai Rapolla for 3 yds to the CP 27

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

HUARD, Sam pass short to the right complete for 6 yards to BURKHART, Evan caught at the CPM32 and advanced to the CPM33 (WOODARD, Simeon). PENALTY CPM Holding enforced 10 yards from the CPM27 to the CPM17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.09

Sam Huard pass complete to Kai Rapolla for 7 yds to the CP 24

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 3 yds to the CP 27

4th & 7Punt+47 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 47 yds , returns for no gain to the MTST 16 , returns for no gain to the MTST 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.63

Sean Chambers pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 22 yds to the MTST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.48

Sean Chambers pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 17 yds to the CP 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jared White run for 5 yds to the CP 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.82

Sean Chambers pass complete to Derryk Snell for 25 yds to the CP 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jared White run for 3 yds to the CP 12

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.66

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Derryk Snell for 12 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Troy Fletcher run for 2 yds to the CP 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 2 yds to the CP 29

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Troy Fletcher run for 3 yds to the CP 32

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Derryk Snell run for 3 yds to the CP 27

4th & 7Field Goal Good+44 yds

Brendan Hall 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Sam Huard pass complete to Evan Burkhart for 7 yds to the CP 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.06

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 13 yds to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTST 43

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

Cal Poly Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) to the CP 47

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 18Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Sam Huard pass complete to Evan Burkhart for 1 yd to the CP 48

4th & 17Penalty-10 yds

COLLINS, Ryan punt 47 yards to the MSU5, fair catch by MCCULLOUCH, Ty, clock 06:23. PENALTY CPM Holding enforced 10 yards from the CPM48 to the CPM38. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 27Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 48 yds , returns for no gain to the MTST 12

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.19

Elijah Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 11

3rd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.19

Sean Chambers run for 10 yds to the MTST 21

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Xavier Oliphant at the CP 40

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Sam Huard run for 2 yds to the CP 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.82

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 11 yds to the MTST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Sam Huard pass complete to Evan Burkhart for 6 yds to the MTST 41

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +3.29

Sam Huard pass complete to Evan Burkhart for 41 yds for a TD (Noah Serna KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.69

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 13 yds to the MTST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.45

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Aidan Garrigan for 16 yds to the MTST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Jared White run for 9 yds to the CP 49

2nd & 1Rush+27 ydsPPA +0.61

Tommy Mellott run for 27 yds to the CP 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tommy Mellott run for 5 yds to the CP 17

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.57

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Jared White for 17 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

[NHSG] Kneel down by CPM at CPM19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Cal Poly Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sam Huard) to the CP 5

2nd & 21Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.35

Mark Biggins run for 21 yds to the CP 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.73

Sam Huard pass complete to Logan Booher for 19 yds to the CP 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.14

Sam Huard pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 16 yds to the MTST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.02

Sam Huard sacked by Ben Seymour for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 40

2nd & 11Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.51

Sam Huard pass complete to Evan Burkhart for 18 yds to the MTST 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Mark Biggins run for 2 yds to the MTST 20

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Noah Serna 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Aidan Garrigan for 4 yds to the MTST 24

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 6Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.27

Tommy Mellott sacked by Josh Ngaluafe for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 23

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Xavier Oliphant at the CP 35

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Mark Biggins run for 9 yds to the CP 44

2nd & 1Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.72

Mark Biggins run for 17 yds to the MTST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Sam Huard pass complete to Reed Shumpert for 3 yds to the MTST 36

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.69

Sam Huard pass complete to Evan Burkhart for 13 yds to the MTST 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Sam Huard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.08

Sam Huard pass complete to Tyrece Fairly-Diyem for 23 yds for a TD (Noah Serna PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Jared White run for 7 yds to the MTST 31

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Jared White run for no gain to the MTST 31

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.27

Jared White run for 4 yds to the MTST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +2.64

Sean Chambers pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 46 yds to the CP 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

4th & 10Penalty0 yds

Cal Poly Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (TEAM) to the CP 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Sean Chambers run for 9 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Mark Biggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the CP 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Sam Huard pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Sam Huard pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 42 yds , Derryk Snell returns for no gain to the MTST 24

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Montana State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MTST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Elijah Elliott run for 3 yds to the MTST 41

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.45

Elijah Elliott run for 8 yds to the MTST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Montana State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CP 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jared White run for 3 yds to the CP 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Tayvian Williams for 12 yds to the CP 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.27

Jared White run for 12 yds to the CP 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jared White run for 5 yds to the CP 16

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Elijah Elliott run for 6 yds to the CP 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Elijah Elliott run for 10 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Mark Biggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the CP 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.33

Bo Kelly pass complete to Bryson Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the CP 23

3rd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Mark Biggins run for 4 yds to the CP 27

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jesse Ehrlich punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Elijah Elliott run for 4 yds to the MTST 44

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.16

Elijah Elliott run for 7 yds to the CP 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +3.76

Adam Jones run for 49 yds for a TD (Brendan Hall KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 3 yds to the CP 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Bo Kelly pass complete to Paul Holyfield Jr. for 9 yds to the CP 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 7 yds to the CP 44

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 11 yds to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for 1 yd to the MTST 44

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.50

Paul Holyfield Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTST 46

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Bo Kelly pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 46 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 22

2nd & 8Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.91

Garrett Coon run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Adam Jones run for 1 yd to the CP 49

2nd & 9Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.84

Jordan Reed run for 17 yds to the CP 32 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Cal Poly

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
25 plays
2nd
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play
27%
11 plays
57%
7 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
14%
7 plays
0%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
29 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
83%
6 plays
70%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th