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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

Tarleton State by 4.7

Home Win Probability

SE Louisiana 34%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

SE Louisiana -3.5

Edge: Tarleton State +3.5 (8.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Tarleton State
1400014
SE Louisiana
700613

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-77-1413-14
SE LouisianaTarleton State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSSLSLTSSLTSSLTSSLTSSLTSSLTSSLTSSLTSSLTSSLTSPUNT721ydTD10ydTD1165ydPUNT39ydTO510ydTD546ydDOWNS855ydPUNT626ydPUNT39ydTO613ydMISS1457ydEND13ydTO1045ydPUNT524ydPUNT427ydPUNT923ydPUNT833ydPUNT512ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT31ydTD968ydEND1125yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Tarleton State and SE Louisiana
StatisticTarleton StateSE Louisiana
Passing9-2322-35
Pass Yards63240
Rush Yards140170
Total Yards203410
Turnovers13
3rd Down6-157-15
Penalties0-06-47
Possession25:3534:25

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Tarleton State
passing
Victor Gabalis
8/21, 62 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Kayvon Britten
18 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaden Smith
3 REC, 38 YDS
SE Louisiana
passing
Eli Sawyer
18/29, 199 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Zachary Clement
11 CAR, 70 YDS
receiving
Harlan Dixon
6 REC, 71 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Jaden Smith

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Kayvon Britten run for 5 yds to the TAR 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.78

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 8 yds to the TAR 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Kayvon Britten run for 10 yds to the TAR 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.48

Victor Gabalis sacked by Coryell Pierce for a loss of 7 yards to the TAR 41

2nd & 17Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Kayvon Britten for 5 yds to the TAR 46

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Benjamin Omayebu

4th & 12Punt+7 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 37 yds , Darius Lewis returns for 7 yds to the SELA 24

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+23 ydsPPA -7.85

Blake Smith 23 Yd Interception Return (Adrian Guzman Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Harlan Dixon run for 5 yds to the SELA 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Jaylon Domingeaux

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.19

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 8 yds to the SELA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Zachary Clement pass complete to Rodeo Graham Jr. for 3 yds to the TAR 49

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.22

Zachary Clement run for 9 yds to the TAR 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 9 yds to the TAR 31

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 3 yds to the TAR 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Bauer Sharp

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Corey Lorio for 5 yds to the TAR 23

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 4 yds to the TAR 19

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.31

Bauer Sharp run for 19 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the TAR 28

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Derrel Kelley III run for 5 yds to the TAR 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the TAR 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SELA 28

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 2 yds to the SELA 30

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 2 yds to the SELA 32

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Sawyer,Eli pass complete short left to Graham Jr.,Rodeo for 10 yards to the SLU42 (Kurns,Kasyus), out of bounds PENALTY SLU Illegal Formation 5 yards from SLU32 to SLU27. NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.27

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 12 yds to the SELA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Harlan Dixon run for 1 yd to the SELA 38

2nd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA -0.85

Eli Sawyer pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 5 yds to the SELA 41

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the SELA 39

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.09

Kayvon Britten run for 5 yds to the SELA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.38

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 19 yds to the SELA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Kayvon Britten run for 15 yds for a TD (Adrian Guzman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Zachary Clement run for 3 yds to the SELA 38

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.55

Deantre Jackson run for 9 yds to the SELA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Deantre Jackson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+32 ydsPPA +1.92

Zachary Clement run for 32 yds to the TAR 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Zachary Clement run for 1 yd to the TAR 19

2nd & 11Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Zachary Clement pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 4 yds to the TAR 15

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Xavier Hill for 5 yds to the TAR 10

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -3.97

Bauer Sharp run for no gain to the TAR 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Dejuan Miller for 4 yds to the TAR 14

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.57

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 8 yds to the TAR 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.94

Derrel Kelley III run for 12 yds to the TAR 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Derrel Kelley III for 2 yds to the TAR 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Jaden Smith

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Jaden Smith

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 59 yds , Darius Lewis returns for no gain to the SELA 3

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Harlan Dixon run for 6 yds to the SELA 9

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Zachary Clement run for 2 yds to the SELA 11

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.19

Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 1 yd to the SELA 12

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Austin Dunlap punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SELA 45

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Derrel Kelley III run for 8 yds to the SELA 37

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Keylan Johnson

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.78

Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the SELA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete fumbled, recovered by SELA , return for 0 yards

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Derrel Kelley III run for 2 yds to the SELA 32

3rd & 8Interception0 ydsPPA -2.92

Victor Gabalis pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Zachary Clement run for 9 yds to the SELA 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 2 yds to the SELA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Zachary Clement run for 15 yds to the TAR 49 for a 1ST down SE Louisiana Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Harlan Dixon) to the SELA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Deantre Jackson run for 8 yds to the SELA 44

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Deantre Jackson run for 1 yd to the SELA 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Bauer Sharp run for 2 yds to the SELA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.33

Zachary Clement pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 25 yds to the TAR 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Harlan Dixon run for 1 yd to the TAR 27

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Zachary Clement run for 2 yds to the TAR 25

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 10 yds to the TAR 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Jaylon Domingeaux

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Harlan Dixon run for 3 yds to the TAR 18

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Ivan Drobocky

4th & 13Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Riley Callaghan 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Kayvon Britten run for 3 yds to the TAR 23

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Dixon,Harlan rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SLU43 (Kurns,Kasyus) PENALTY SLU Holding (Lanclos,Brennan) 10 yards from SLU35 to SLU25. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.35

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Da'shun Hugley for 8 yds to the SELA 33

2nd & 12Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.08

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 22 yds to the TAR 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Jaylon Domingeaux

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 7 yds to the TAR 38

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the TAR 36

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.63

Bauer Sharp run for 2 yds to the TAR 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Zachary Clement pass incomplete to Connor Briggs

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Rodeo Graham Jr. run for no gain to the TAR 34

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.87

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Corey Lorio for 14 yds to the TAR 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -4.38

Zachary Clement run for no gain to the TAR 20 Zachary Clement fumbled, recovered by TAR Steve Albert Jr.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Kayvon Britten run for 7 yds to the TAR 27

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.91

Kayvon Britten run for 11 yds to the TAR 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the TAR 42

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the TAR 44

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Jaden Smith

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Darius Lewis at the SELA 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.96

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Xavier Hill for 26 yds to the SELA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Sawyer,Eli pass incomplete short middle to Sharp,Bauer PENALTY SLU Pass Interference (Logan,Jacob) 15 yards from SLU41 to SLU26. NO PLAY.

1st & 25Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Zachary Clement run for 3 yds to the SELA 23

2nd & 28Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.87

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 19 yds to the SELA 42

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Darius Lewis

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Austin Dunlap punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Carr at the TAR 14

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Derrel Kelley III run for 7 yds to the TAR 21

2nd & 3Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA +0.08

run for 3 yds to the TAR 18 fumbled, recovered by TAR Derrel Kelley III

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.03

Derrel Kelley III run for 7 yds to the TAR 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Derrel Kelley III run for 9 yds to the TAR 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Daniel Greek pass incomplete to Benjamin Omayebu

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Derrel Kelley III run for 2 yds to the TAR 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Derrel Kelley III run for no gain to the TAR 36

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Kayvon Britten run for no gain to the TAR 36

3rd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Daniel Greek pass complete to Kayvon Britten for 1 yd to the TAR 37

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Zachary Clement run for 2 yds to the SELA 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.54

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 14 yds to the SELA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Darius Lewis pass incomplete to Da'shun Hugley

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Darius Lewis

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.76

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Corey Lorio for 12 yds to the SELA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Harlan Dixon run for 5 yds to the TAR 48

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.18

Harlan Dixon run for no gain to the TAR 48

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Darius Lewis

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Austin Dunlap punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TAR 13

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Kayvon Britten run for 1 yd to the TAR 14

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.96

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 11 yds to the TAR 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Kayvon Britten

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Jaden Smith

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Kayvon Britten

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TAR 35

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

SE Louisiana Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Eli Sawyer) to the TAR 45

2nd & 20Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 2 yds to the TAR 43

3rd & 18Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Corey Lorio for 4 yds to the TAR 39

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Austin Dunlap punt for 39 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Keylan Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the TAR 21

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Keylan Johnson

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Darius Lewis at the SELA 32

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 14 yds to the SELA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Rodeo Graham Jr.

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.31

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 10 yds to the TAR 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Harlan Dixon run for 4 yds to the TAR 36

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Harlan Dixon run for 7 yds to the TAR 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Harlan Dixon run for 3 yds to the TAR 26

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.53

Eli Sawyer pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 17 yds to the TAR 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Zachary Clement pass complete to Darius Lewis for 9 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the TAR 27

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Kayvon Britten run for 5 yds to the TAR 32

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.22

Kayvon Britten run for 3 yds to the TAR 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Derrel Kelley III run for 8 yds to the TAR 43

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Derrel Kelley III run for 2 yds to the TAR 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the TAR 46

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Kayvon Britten run for 6 yds to the SELA 48

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the SELA 46

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.23

Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the SELA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.80

Kneel down by Tarleton St. at SLU46 for loss of 4 yards.

2nd & 14Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.55

Kneel down by Tarleton St. at TSU50 for loss of 4 yards.

Situational Analysis

Tarleton State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
25 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

SE Louisiana

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
34%
29 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
58%
12 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
67%
3 plays