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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Central Arkansas by 10.6

Home Win Probability

Central Arkansas 73%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Central Arkansas -11

Edge: Tarleton State +11 (0.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Tarleton State
3103925
Central Arkansas
0731323

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-37-1310-2217-25
Central ArkansasTarleton State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CATSCATSCATSCATSCATSCATSCATSCATSCATSCATSPUNT3-5ydPUNT613ydPUNT39ydFG1145ydTD1666ydFG1039ydPUNT622ydTD1179ydMISS666ydUncategorized942ydFG1053ydFG962ydPUNT33ydTD579ydTD875ydPUNT36ydPUNT4-9ydFG945ydTD1072ydUncategorized10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Tarleton State and Central Arkansas
StatisticTarleton StateCentral Arkansas
Passing12-2122-36
Pass Yards168176
Rush Yards208171
Total Yards376347
Turnovers10
3rd Down10-176-15
Penalties4-356-54
Possession32:5527:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Tarleton State
passing
Victor Gabalis
12/21, 168 YDS
rushing
Kayvon Britten
22 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Trevon West
3 REC, 60 YDS
Central Arkansas
passing
Will McElvain
22/36, 176 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Kylin James
5 CAR, 71 YDS
receiving
Kylin James
9 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

ShunDerrick Powell run for 4 yds to the CARK 29

2nd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.10

Will McElvain sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the CARK 20

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Powell,ShunDerrick rush left (Taylor,Kyle).

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the TAR 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Kayvon Britten for 3 yds to the TAR 42

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.70

Kayvon Britten run for 5 yds to the TAR 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 1 yd to the TAR 48

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Britten,Kayvon rush middle (Walker,David;Jessup,Logan).

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

pass incomplete to Benjamin Omayebu

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the CARK 3

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Darius Hale run for 4 yds to the CARK 7

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Darius Hale run for 4 yds to the CARK 11

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.83

Derrel Kelley III run for 14 yds to the CARK 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.09

Derrel Kelley III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CARK 38

2nd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Derrel Kelley III run for 4 yds to the CARK 34

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.59

Derrel Kelley III run for 11 yds to the CARK 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.15

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Trevon West for 13 yds to the CARK 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Derrel Kelley III run for 4 yds to the CARK 6

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Darius Cooper for a 1ST down Central Arkansas Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Andrew Hayes) to the CARK 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.00

Derrel Kelley III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CARK 3

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Kelley III,Derrel rush middle (Golday,Jake).

3rd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Derrel Kelley III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CARK 5

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 yds

Adrian Guzman 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Adrian Guzman kickoff for 52 yds , Kam Robinson return for 21 yds to the CARK 34

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

ShunDerrick Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the CARK 33

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Will McElvain pass complete to Jordan Owens for 7 yds to the CARK 40

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

ShunDerrick Powell run for 2 yds to the CARK 42

4th & 2Penalty+5 yds

Tarleton State Penalty, off-side (Ahmir Crowder) to the CARK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

ShunDerrick Powell run for a loss of 2 yards to the CARK 45

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes, broken up by Ty Rawls

3rd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.17

Will McElvain run for 11 yds to the TAR 44

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.04

Will McElvain run for 2 yds to the TAR 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

ShunDerrick Powell run for 1 yd to the TAR 41

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes

3rd & 9Penalty+5 yds

Tarleton State Penalty, off-side (Tramaine Chism) to the TAR 36

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.08

Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 5 yds to the TAR 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Myles Butler, broken up by Kasyus Kurns

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 5 yds to the TAR 26

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 4 yds to the TAR 22

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.83

Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the TAR 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Darius Hale run for 8 yds to the TAR 13

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.17

Will McElvain pass complete to Jordan Owens for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Trevon West, broken up by Javeon Jones

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.68

Kayvon Britten run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAR 34

3rd & 11Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.70

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 25 yds to the CARK 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the CARK 39

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Benjamin Omayebu, broken up by Tra Green

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.90

Victor Gabalis run for 9 yds to the CARK 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.19

Victor Gabalis sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the CARK 34

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

pass incomplete to Benjamin Omayebu

3rd & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.68

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Trevon West for 8 yds to the CARK 26

4th & 6Field Goal Good+43 yds

Adrian Guzman 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Adrian Guzman kickoff for 53 yds , Christian Richmond return for 20 yds to the CARK 32

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Kylin James, broken up by Ty Rawls

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Kylin James run for 7 yds to the CARK 39

3rd & 3Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.48

Will McElvain pass complete to Kam Robinson for 15 yds to the TAR 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes, broken up by Greg Eggleston Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes, broken up by Patrick Jones

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Will McElvain punt for 25 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 2 yds to the TAR 23

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Derrel Kelley III run for 2 yds to the TAR 25

3rd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.82

Victor Gabalis run for 11 yds to the TAR 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Derrel Kelley III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAR 35

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Derrel Kelley III run for 6 yds to the TAR 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.37

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 10 yds to the CARK 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 8 yds to the CARK 41

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the CARK 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Tucker Swoboda, broken up by Andrew Hayes

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Darius Cooper, broken up by James Jordan

3rd & 10Rushing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +4.87

Kayvon Britten run for 38 yds for a TD (Adrian Guzman KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Adrian Guzman kickoff for 51 yds , Kam Robinson return for 17 yds to the CARK 31

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Central Arkansas Penalty, false start (Justin Lairy) to the CARK 26

1st & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 3 yds to the CARK 29

2nd & 12Rush+51 ydsPPA +4.13

Kylin James run for 51 yds to the TAR 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.42

Will McElvain pass complete to Darius Hale for 13 yds to the TAR 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Darius Hale run for 4 yds to the TAR 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

pass incomplete to Jared Long

3rd & 3Field Goal Missed0 yds

Jake Gaster 21 Yard Field Goal Missed

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Kayvon Britten run for 9 yds to the TAR 34

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the TAR 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +1.34

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Trevon West, broken up by T.D. Williams for a 1ST down Central Arkansas Penalty, Defensive pass interference (T.D. Williams) to the CARK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Kayvon Britten run for 3 yds to the CARK 44

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the CARK 40

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.06

Kayvon Britten run for 3 yds to the CARK 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Darius Cooper, broken up by Andrew Hayes

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the CARK 33

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Jake Ward kickoff for 56 yds , Deangelo Rosemond return for 16 yds to the TAR 25

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.50

Darius Hale run for 18 yds to the TAR 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Darius Hale run for 5 yds to the TAR 38

2nd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.61

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 16 yds to the TAR 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Will McElvain run for 4 yds to the TAR 18

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 4 yds to the TAR 14

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.29

Darius Hale run for 5 yds to the TAR 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes

2nd & 9Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.49

Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for a loss of 3 yards to the TAR 12

3rd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.32

Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 9 yds to the TAR 3

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

Central Arkansas Penalty, delay of game (Jake Gaster) to the TAR 8

4th & 8Field Goal Good+26 yds

Jake Gaster 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Jake Ward kickoff for 53 yds , Deangelo Rosemond return for 18 yds to the TAR 30

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -1.56

Kelley III,Derrel rush (Golday,Jake;Person,Dude), PENALTY TRS holding (Weber,Kyle) 10 yards to the TRS40. Tarleton State Penalty, Offensive holding (Kyle Weber) to the TAR 20

1st & 20Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.21

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Darius Cooper for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.35

Derrel Kelley III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAR 49

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the CARK 48

3rd & 8Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.15

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Trevon West for 39 yds to the CARK 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the CARK 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

pass incomplete to Jaden Smith

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Dawson Hearne, broken up by Cameron Godfrey

4th & 8Field Goal Good+25 yds

Adrian Guzman 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Adrian Guzman kickoff for 52 yds , Kam Robinson return for 16 yds to the CARK 29

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Will McElvain run for 3 yds to the CARK 32

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Kam Robinson, broken up by Patrick Jones

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

pass incomplete to Myles Butler

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Kayvon Britten run for 1 yd to the TAR 22

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

Central Arkansas Penalty, personal foul (Bradley Clark) to the TAR 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the TAR 41

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+59 ydsPPA +5.21

Kayvon Britten 59 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Adrian Guzman kickoff for 57 yds , Kam Robinson return for 17 yds to the CARK 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the CARK 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes

3rd & 9Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.32

Will McElvain run for 14 yds to the CARK 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.62

Will McElvain run for 21 yds to the TAR 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 7 yds to the TAR 32

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.07

Kylin James run for 11 yds to the TAR 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 2 yds to the TAR 19

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.84

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 19 yds for a TD (Jake Gaster KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Caleb Lewis run for 2 yds to the TAR 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Caleb Lewis for 1 yd to the TAR 28

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Victor Gabalis run for 3 yds to the TAR 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Darius Hale run for 3 yds to the CARK 28

2nd & 7Rush-8 ydsPPA -0.92

Kylin James run for 2 yds to the CARK 30 Central Arkansas Penalty, Offensive holding (Christian Richmond) to the CARK 20

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Myles Butler, broken up by Kasyus Kurns

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Kayvon Britten run for 3 yds to the TAR 39

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.38

Kayvon Britten run for 7 yds to the TAR 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kayvon Britten run for 5 yds to the CARK 49

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.19

Britten,Kayvon rush middle (Charles,Demetrius;Walker,David).

3rd & 5Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.64

Victor Gabalis pass complete to Darius Cooper for 28 yds to the CARK 21 for a 1ST down Central Arkansas Penalty, Defensive holding (James Jordan) to the CARK 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Britten,Kayvon rush middle (Walker,David).

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.50

Britten,Kayvon rush middle (Walker,David;Charles,Demetrius).

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the CARK 19

4th & 8Field Goal Good+36 yds

Adrian Guzman 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Adrian Guzman kickoff for 52 yds , Jarrod Barnes return for 15 yds to the CARK 28

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.10

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for a loss of 3 yards to the CARK 25

2nd & 13Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.10

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 14 yds to the CARK 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 1 yd to the CARK 40

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

pass incomplete to Christian Richmond

3rd & 9Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.43

Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 21 yds to the TAR 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Tarleton State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Ty Rawls) to the TAR 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.22

Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 21 yds to the TAR 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

James,Kylin rush middle (Washington,Qua'Shawn).

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

pass incomplete to Darius Hale

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 yds

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Christian Richmond

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Jordan Owens 3 Yd pass from Will McElvain (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Jake Ward kickoff for 46 yds , Tucker Swoboda return for no gain to the TAR 19

Situational Analysis

Tarleton State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
23%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
9%
11 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
100%
2 plays
4th

Central Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
29%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
27%
11 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays