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← Back to GamesOct 14, 2023Week 7

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi Valley State by 4.1

Home Win Probability

Mississippi Valley State 59%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Mississippi Valley State +2

Edge: Mississippi Valley State +2 (6.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 14, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
037717
Mississippi Valley State
77141442

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-314-328-1021-1035-17
Mississippi Valley StateArkansas-Pine Bluff

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ABMVSABMVSABMVSABMVSABMVSABMVSABABMVSABMVSABMVSABABMVSABMVSPUNT34ydPUNT831ydMISS516ydTD876ydFG865ydPUNT519ydPUNT3-5ydTD434ydMISS1069ydPUNT30ydPUNT35ydPUNT610ydEND37ydTD184ydPUNT37ydTD478ydTD1079ydTO1054ydPUNT618ydUncategorized422ydDOWNS617ydTD363ydTD880ydTD644yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Mississippi Valley State
StatisticArkansas-Pine BluffMississippi Valley State
Passing19-2919-29
Pass Yards175265
Rush Yards234149
Total Yards409414
Turnovers20
3rd Down4-137-13
Penalties8-644-45
Possession28:3731:23

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas-Pine Bluff
passing
Chancellor Edwards
9/11, 72 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kierstan Rogers
10 CAR, 108 YDS
receiving
Kenji Lewis
3 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
Mississippi Valley State
passing
Ty'Jarian Williams
19/29, 265 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
DePhabian Fant
3 CAR, 59 YDS
receiving
Cobie Bates
2 REC, 70 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Johness Davis run for 4 yds to the UAPB 30

2nd & 6Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.68

Jalen Macon pass complete to Maurice Lloyd

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jalen Macon pass incomplete to Chrysten Cochran, broken up by Kalib Alexander

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jeremy Baker punt for 68 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Ty'Jarian Williams run for 3 yds to the MVSU 4

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.36

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Jaxson Davis for 8 yds to the MVSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jared Wilson fumbled, recovered by MVSU Malik Myers

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.14

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Kerrick Ross for 1 yd to the MVSU 13

3rd & 9Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.01

Ty'Jarian Williams run for 22 yds to the MVSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01
2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Ty'Jarian Williams pass incomplete to Kerrick Ross

3rd & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.40

Ty'Jarian Williams sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MVSU 32

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 8 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.51

Chrysten Cochran pass complete to for 16 yds to the MVSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Johness Davis run for 3 yds to the MVSU 21

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

pass incomplete to Johness Davis

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.25

Jalen Macon run for a loss of 3 yards to the MVSU 24 Jalen Macon fumbled, recovered by UAPB Chrysten Cochran

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+40 yds

Dean Sarris 40 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Jakobe Thomas run for 3 yds to the MVSU 27

2nd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.57

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Kerrick Ross for 12 yds to the MVSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jakobe Thomas run for 1 yd to the MVSU 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.99

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Jaxson Davis for 11 yds to the UAPB 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Jared Wilson for 6 yds to the UAPB 43

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Malik Myers for 8 yds to the UAPB 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.69

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Kerrick Ross

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +3.66

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Kerrick Ross for 35 yds for a TD (Anthony Turnage KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Mississippi Valley State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the UAPB 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.62

Maurice Lloyd run for 24 yds to the MVSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

BJ Curry run for 4 yds to the MVSU 30

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Johness Davis run for 4 yds to the MVSU 26

3rd & 2Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.61

Jalen Macon pass complete to Javaughn Williams for 23 yds to the MVSU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75
2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Penalty, false start (Calvin Lester III) to the MVSU 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

pass incomplete to Maurice Lloyd

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jalen Macon pass incomplete to Javaughn Williams, broken up by Caleb Canada

4th & 8Field Goal Good+25 yds

Dean Sarris 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the MVSU 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.75

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Malik Antwine for 23 yds to the UAPB 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Jared Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAPB 44

2nd & 11Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.93

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Cobie Bates for a loss of 5 yards to the UAPB 49

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Ty'Jarian Williams pass incomplete to Malik Antwine, broken up by Marcus Askew II

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Johness Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAPB 19

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

pass incomplete to Kenji Lewis

3rd & 11Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jalen Macon sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the UAPB 15

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Jeremy Baker punt for 19 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.39

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Jaxson Davis for 20 yds to the UAPB 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

pass incomplete to Malik Antwine

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Ty'Jarian Williams pass incomplete to Omar Emmons, broken up by Sam Anthony

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.20

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Kobe Chambers for 14 yds for a TD (Alexander Davis KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Johness Davis run for 5 yds to the UAPB 20

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.61

Jalen Macon pass complete to Tristan Ballard for 7 yds to the UAPB 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Johness Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAPB 25

2nd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.39

Jalen Macon run for 8 yds to the UAPB 33

3rd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jalen Macon pass complete to Kenji Lewis for 2 yds to the UAPB 35

4th & 2Rush+47 ydsPPA +4.24

Jalen Macon run for 47 yds to the MVSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Jalen Macon run for 2 yds to the MVSU 16

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Dean Sarris 32 yd FG MISSED

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

pass incomplete to Cobie Bates

4th & 10Penalty0 yds

Mississippi Valley State Penalty, Offensive holding (Yards) to the MVSU 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

pass incomplete to Cobie Bates

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

pass incomplete to Cobie Bates

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Penalty, Offensive holding (Corace Hudson) to the UAPB 31

1st & 20Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Jalen Macon pass complete to Johness Davis for 2 yds to the UAPB 33

2nd & 18Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.19

Jalen Macon pass complete to Tristan Ballard for 13 yds to the UAPB 46

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Jalen Macon pass incomplete to Daemon Dawkins, broken up by Brandon Williams

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jeremy Baker punt for 26 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jared Wilson run for 4 yds to the MVSU 32

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the MVSU 34

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.61

Kerrick Ross run for 5 yds to the MVSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-9 ydsPPA -2.19

Ty'Jarian Williams run for 1 yd to the MVSU 40 Mississippi Valley State Penalty, Offensive holding (Omar Emmons) to the MVSU 30

2nd & 19Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.17

Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the MVSU 31

3rd & 18Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.09

DePhabian Fant run for 7 yds to the MVSU 38

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 32 yds , Maurice Lloyd returns for no gain to the UAPB 38 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Penalty, Offensive holding (Rico Dozier) to the UAPB 12

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.46

Jalen Macon run for 10 yds to the UAPB 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jalen Macon pass complete to Johness Davis for 3 yds to the UAPB 25

2nd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.74

Jalen Macon sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UAPB 19

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+16 ydsPPA -7.42

Omar Emmons 16 Yd Interception Return (Alexander Davis Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

pass incomplete to Jared Wilson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Malik Antwine for 7 yds to the UAPB 44

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

pass incomplete to Cobie Bates

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 22 yds

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.03

Kierstan Rogers run for 13 yds to the UAPB 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+55 ydsPPA +2.73

Kierstan Rogers run for 55 yds to the MVSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29
2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.80

Tristan Ballard 10 Yd pass from Chancellor Edwards (Trey Glymph Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59
2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Malik Myers for 9 yds to the MVSU 30

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.82

Ty'Jarian Williams run for 2 yds to the MVSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.63

Ty'Jarian Williams sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MVSU 24

2nd & 18Pass Reception+60 ydsPPA +4.58

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Cobie Bates for 75 yds to the UAPB 1 for a 1ST down Mississippi Valley State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cobie Bates) to the UAPB 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 16Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Jared Wilson run for 8 yds to the UAPB 14

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Ty'Jarian Williams run for 7 yds to the UAPB 7

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Penalty, off-side (Rico Dozier) to the UAPB 3

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Jaxson Davis 3 Yd pass from Ty'Jarian Williams (Alexander Davis Kick)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.99

Kierstan Rogers run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Chancellor Edwards pass complete to Claude Coleman for 7 yds to the MVSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.65

Kierstan Rogers run for 18 yds to the MVSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Chancellor Edwards pass complete to Claude Coleman for 7 yds to the MVSU 18

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51
3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Chancellor Edwards pass complete to Kevin English for 6 yds to the MVSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Johness Davis run for 2 yds to the MVSU 10

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Kierstan Rogers run for 6 yds to the MVSU 4

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32
4th & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -4.11

Chancellor Edwards run for 3 yds to the MVSU 1 Chancellor Edwards fumbled, recovered by MVSU Brandon Williams

1st & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Ty'Jarian Williams run for 6 yds to the MVSU 7

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.24

DePhabian Fant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MVSU 6

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.75

Jakobe Thomas run for 11 yds to the MVSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the MVSU 18

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the MVSU 19

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

pass incomplete to Malik Antwine

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 35 yds , Jewel Fletcher returns for no gain to the UAPB 46

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Chancellor Edwards run for 2 yds to the UAPB 27

2nd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.87

BJ Curry run for 14 yds to the UAPB 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Chancellor Edwards pass complete to BJ Curry for 6 yds to the UAPB 47

2nd & 4Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.45

Chancellor Edwards sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the UAPB 47

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Kierstan Rogers run for 8 yds to the MVSU 46

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

BJ Curry run for 6 yds to the MVSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Chancellor Edwards run for 5 yds to the MVSU 35

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87
3rd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.48

BJ Curry run for a loss of 2 yards to the MVSU 37

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.56

Chancellor Edwards pass incomplete to Kevin English

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.07

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Jaxson Davis

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.02

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Malik Antwine for 10 yds to the MVSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+53 ydsPPA +4.10

DePhabian Fant 53 Yd Run (Alexander Davis Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Chancellor Edwards pass complete to Tristan Ballard for 7 yds to the UAPB 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Chancellor Edwards pass complete to Kierstan Rogers for 2 yds to the UAPB 29

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.96

BJ Curry run for 4 yds to the UAPB 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Chancellor Edwards pass complete to Tristan Ballard for 4 yds to the UAPB 37

2nd & 6Penalty0 yds

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Penalty, false start (Rico Dozier) to the UAPB 36

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Chancellor Edwards run for 4 yds to the UAPB 40

3rd & 3Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.29

Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Kenji Lewis for 37 yds to the MVSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.42

Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Kierstan Rogers

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.08

Chancellor Edwards pass complete to Kenji Lewis for 23 yds for a TD (Dean Sarris KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the UAPB 43

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jared Wilson run for 4 yds to the UAPB 39

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.37

Jared Wilson run for 5 yds to the UAPB 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jared Wilson run for 4 yds to the UAPB 30

2nd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.80

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Gregory Martin for 28 yds to the UAPB 2 for a 1ST down Mississippi Valley State Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UAPB 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Jared Wilson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alexander Davis KICK)

Situational Analysis

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
44%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
0%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Mississippi Valley State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
17%
23 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
56%
16 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th