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← Back to GamesNov 11, 2023Week 11

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama State by 18.5

Home Win Probability

Mississippi Valley State 14%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Mississippi Valley State +14

Edge: Alabama State -14 (4.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 11, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Alabama State
1460020
Mississippi Valley State
30003

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-143-20
Mississippi Valley StateAlabama State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MVSMVSMVSASASMVSMVSASMVSASASMVSASASMVSASASMVSASASMVSASMVSASMVSTO617ydTO1029ydFG944ydTD467ydTD326ydDOWNS47ydPUNT517ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT33ydTD427ydPUNT613ydDOWNS847ydPUNT3-9ydPUNT32ydPUNT36ydDOWNS45ydPUNT3-10ydPUNT32ydPUNT38ydPUNT33ydUncategorized23ydPUNT33ydPUNT59ydPUNT36yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Alabama State and Mississippi Valley State
StatisticAlabama StateMississippi Valley State
Passing15-2216-24
Pass Yards11976
Rush Yards10254
Total Yards221130
Turnovers03
3rd Down0-113-16
Penalties4-304-17
Possession27:2532:35

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Alabama State
passing
Damon Stewart
8/14, 102 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Marcus II Harris
9 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kisean Johnson
7 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Mississippi Valley State
passing
Dino Maldonado
4/5, 38 YDS
rushing
DePhabian Fant
10 CAR, 34 YDS
receiving
Jaxson Davis
4 REC, 27 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the MVSU 35

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Dino Maldonado pass incomplete to Kerrick Ross, broken up by Amon Scarbrough

3rd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.52

Dino Maldonado pass complete to Jaxson Davis for 10 yds to the MVSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jared Wilson run for 4 yds to the MVSU 49

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the ALST 49

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-9 ydsPPA -1.97

Dino Maldonado run for a loss of 9 yards to the MVSU 26 Dino Maldonado fumbled, recovered by ALST Treqwan Thomas Maldonado,Dino rush for loss of 9 yards to the MVS42, fumble by Maldonado,Dino recovered by ASU Thomas,Treqwan, Thomas,Treqwan rush (Myers,Malik). Maldonado,Dino rush for loss of 9 yards to the MVS42, fumble by Maldonado,Dino recovered by ASU Thomas,Treqwan, Thomas,Treqwan rush (Myers,Malik).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jakobe Thomas run for 5 yds to the MVSU 31

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.79

Thomas,Jakobe rush middle (Scarbrough,Amon;Stokes,Kelvin).

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.51

Dino Maldonado pass complete to Malik Antwine for 15 yds to the MVSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jakobe Thomas run for 2 yds to the MVSU 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Dino Maldonado pass complete to Cobie Bates for 6 yds to the ALST 46

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Ty'Jarian Williams run for 1 yd to the ALST 45

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.02

Ty'Jarian Williams run for 1 yd to the ALST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.87

DePhabian Fant run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALST 48

2nd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Cobie Bates for 3 yds to the ALST 45

3rd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA -1.34

Ty'Jarian Williams pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

DePhabian Fant run for 15 yds to the MVSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi Valley State Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MVSU 42

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

DePhabian Fant run for 4 yds to the MVSU 46

2nd & 11Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.24

DePhabian Fant run for 13 yds to the ALST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

DePhabian Fant run for 6 yds to the ALST 35

2nd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Dino Maldonado pass complete to Malik Antwine for 7 yds to the ALST 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Jared Wilson run for 7 yds to the ALST 21

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Maldonado,Dino rush right (Thomas,Treqwan;Maddox,Adrian).

3rd & 3Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.13

Jared Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALST 24

4th & 6Field Goal Good+34 yds

Anthony Turnage 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Kisean Johnson run for 10 yds to the ALST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +1.94

Damon Stewart pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 45 yds to the MVSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Marcus Harris II run for 9 yds to the MVSU 3

2nd & 1Penalty+2 yds

Mississippi Valley State Penalty, off-side (Detrick Jones) to the MVSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Marcus Harris II 1 Yd Run (Jayden John Kick)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Jaylen Sulton run for 7 yds to the MVSU 19

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaylen Sulton run for 9 yds to the MVSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Kisean Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD (Baylor Cannon KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Jared Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the MVSU 19

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Jaxson Davis for 7 yds to the MVSU 26

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the MVSU 29

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.05

Jared Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MVSU 27

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Cobie Bates run for 7 yds to the MVSU 32

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.42

Jakobe Thomas run for 5 yds to the MVSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jared Wilson run for 1 yd to the MVSU 38

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the MVSU 40

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi Valley State Penalty, false start (Jaxson Davis) to the MVSU 35

3rd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Kerrick Ross for 7 yds to the MVSU 42

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Damon Stewart pass incomplete to Kisean Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Damon Stewart pass complete to Tee Lee for 6 yds to the ALST 28

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Damon Stewart pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt+10 yds

Harrison Tuck punt for 37 yds , Cobie Bates returns for 10 yds to the MVSU 45

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.48

Ty'Jarian Williams sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MVSU 37

2nd & 18Penalty-5 yds

Mississippi Valley State Penalty, false start (Joseph Church) to the MVSU 32

2nd & 23Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Jaxson Davis for 4 yds to the MVSU 36

3rd & 19Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

DePhabian Fant run for 2 yds to the MVSU 38

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 22 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jaylen Sulton run for 1 yd to the MVSU 40

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Jaylen Sulton run for 2 yds to the MVSU 38

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Damon Stewart pass incomplete to Kisean Johnson, broken up by Omar Emmons

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Harrison Tuck punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.74

Ja'Won Howell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MVSU 29

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Marcus Harris II run for 2 yds to the MVSU 27

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Damon Stewart pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 7 yds to the MVSU 20

4th & 3Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.54

Kisean Johnson 20 Yd pass from Damon Stewart (Baylor Cannon PAT failed)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

pass incomplete to Malik Myers

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Cobie Bates for 6 yds to the MVSU 30

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Cobie Bates for 4 yds to the MVSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Jaxson Davis for 6 yds to the MVSU 40

2nd & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.63

DePhabian Fant run for a loss of 3 yards to the MVSU 37

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Ty'Jarian Williams pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 29 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

pass incomplete to Asa Gregg

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.49

Marcus Harris II run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALST 28

3rd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.34

Damon Stewart pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 9 yds to the ALST 37

4th & 2Rush+35 ydsPPA +3.99

Marcus Harris II run for 35 yds to the MVSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Damon Stewart pass complete to Asa Gregg for 4 yds to the MVSU 24

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

pass incomplete to Asa Gregg

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Alabama State Penalty, Offensive holding (Christian Pitts) to the ALST 24

1st & 20Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.36

Ja'Won Howell run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALST 20

2nd & 24Rush0 ydsPPA -0.06

Howell,Ja'Won rush middle (Fox,Jayren).

3rd & 24Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Nyqua Lett pass complete to Demontrez Brown for 5 yds to the ALST 25

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Harrison Tuck punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Ty'Jarian Williams run for 4 yds to the MVSU 37

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Ty'Jarian Williams pass incomplete to Kerrick Ross

3rd & 6Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.62

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Malik Myers for a loss of 2 yards to the MVSU 35

4th & 8Punt+8 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 36 yds , Robert McMinn returns for 8 yds to the ALST 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Nyqua Lett pass complete to Tee Lee for 5 yds to the ALST 42

2nd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Nyqua Lett pass complete to Tee Lee for 1 yd to the ALST 43

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

pass incomplete to Tee Lee

4th & 4Punt+9 yds

Harrison Tuck punt for 42 yds , Cobie Bates returns for 9 yds to the MVSU 24 Cobie Bates fumbled, recovered by ALST Tyree Saunders Tuck,Harrison punt 42 yards to the MVS15, Bates,Cobie return 9 yards to the MVS24, fumble by Bates,Cobie recovered by ASU Saunders,Tyree, Saunders,Tyree return 0 yards to the MVS24. , return for no gain to the MVSU 24

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaylen Sulton run for 1 yd to the MVSU 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Nyqua Lett pass complete to Robert McMinn for 3 yds to the MVSU 20

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Nyqua Lett pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 1 yd to the MVSU 19

4th & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -3.35

Nyqua Lett pass complete to Kisean Johnson

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.76

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to DePhabian Fant for a loss of 4 yards to the MVSU 15

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

pass incomplete to Malik Antwine

3rd & 14Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.08

Ty'Jarian Williams sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MVSU 9

4th & 20Punt+10 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MVSU 41 , Robert McMinn returns for 10 yds to the MVSU 19 Alabama State Penalty, illegal block (Christian Pitts) to the MVSU 41

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.88

Johnson,Kisean rush right (Quinney,Ryan).

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Harris II,Marcus rush left (Canada,Caleb;Bussey,Jordan).

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Nyqua Lett pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 2 yds to the MVSU 39

4th & 8Punt+5 yds

Harrison Tuck punt for 32 yds , Kerrick Ross returns for 5 yds to the MVSU 12

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Alabama State Penalty, false start (Christian Pitts) to the ALST 39

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Marcus Harris II run for 3 yds to the ALST 42

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.83

Marcus Harris II run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALST 41

3rd & 13Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Marcus Harris II run for 11 yds to the MVSU 48

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Harrison Tuck punt for 30 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Jared Wilson run for 6 yds to the MVSU 24

2nd & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.88

Jared Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MVSU 21

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

pass incomplete to Jaxson Davis

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaylen Sulton run for 3 yds to the ALST 43

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jaylen Sulton run for 3 yds to the ALST 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Kerrick Ross for 2 yds to the MVSU 14

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

DePhabian Fant run for 1 yd to the MVSU 15

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.13

Fant,DePhabian rush middle (DeGraffenreid,Grant).

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Alexander Davis punt for no gain

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.89

Damon Stewart pass complete to Tee Lee for 10 yds to the ALST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Damon Stewart pass complete to Tee Lee for 1 yd to the ALST 47

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Howell,Ja'Won rush middle (Fox,Jayren).

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

Alabama State Penalty, delay of game (Christian Pitts) to the ALST 44

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Harrison Tuck punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Ty'Jarian Williams pass complete to Kerrick Ross for 6 yds to the MVSU 27

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.74

Fant,DePhabian rush middle (Fletcher,Jakeem).

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

pass incomplete to Malik Myers

4th & 4Punt+4 yds

Alexander Davis punt for 33 yds , Robert McMinn returns for 4 yds to the ALST 44

Situational Analysis

Alabama State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
40%
15 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
25%
8 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
0%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Mississippi Valley State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
42%
19 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
14%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays