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← Back to GamesNov 24, 2023Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Boise State by 13.2

Home Win Probability

Boise State 79%

Market (Bovada)

Boise State -6.5

Edge: Boise State -6.5 (6.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 24, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
0613019
Boise StateBoise State
3147327

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-010-017-624-1224-1927-19
Boise StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSFG954ydPUNT3-1ydTO744ydPUNT838ydTD1290ydFG842ydTD175ydFG1147ydTD575ydTD475ydPUNT36ydTO625ydTD760ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT49ydPUNT412ydPUNT50ydFG732ydDOWNS941ydPUNT37ydTO215ydEND12yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Boise State
StatisticAir ForceBoise State
Passing8-1813-17
Pass Yards131228
Rush Yards206181
Total Yards337409
Turnovers12
3rd Down5-145-10
Penalties3-201-10
Possession30:5829:02

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
John Busha
8/17, 131 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Dylan Carson
12 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Brandon Engel
4 REC, 57 YDS
defense
Boise State
passing
Taylen Green
13/17, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Ashton Jeanty
14 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ashton Jeanty
5 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

George Holani run for 9 yds to the BOIS 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.73

Taylen Green pass complete to Austin Bolt for 13 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

George Holani run for 9 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.22

Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.51

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 18 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.39

Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for no gain to the AFA 21

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 4 yds to the AFA 17

3rd & 6Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.21

Taylen Green sacked by Caden Blum for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 21

4th & 10Field Goal Good+38 yds

Jonah Dalmas 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 25

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 25

3rd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.18

Ben Brittain sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 31 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

George Holani run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.64

George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 48

3rd & 7Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.07

Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 25 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Ashton Jeanty run for 8 yds to the AFA 19

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

George Holani run for 3 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the AFA 11

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return+15 ydsPPA -4.51

Taylen Green pass intercepted Jalen Mergerson return for 15 yds to the AFA 16

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Ben Brittain run for 7 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.02

Cade Harris run for 11 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 45

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.88

Aiden Calvert run for 6 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the BOIS 48

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the BOIS 45

3rd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Aiden Calvert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 46

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 36 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BOIS 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.94

Taylen Green pass complete to Matt Lauter for 18 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 33

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the BOIS 36

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.25

Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Taylen Green pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

George Holani run for 4 yds to the BOIS 43

3rd & 6Penalty+10 yds

GREEN, Taylen pass to the left incomplete intended for BOWENS, Billy thrown to the AFA45; QB hurried by MOCK, Alec. PENALTY AFA Holding on BELLAMY, Jamari enforced 10 yards from the BSU43 to the AFA47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.82

Taylen Green pass complete to Matt Lauter for 18 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

George Holani run for no gain to the AFA 29

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.57

Ashton Jeanty run for 9 yds to the AFA 20

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.20

Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the AFA 12

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.66

Taylen Green run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Ben Brittain run for 6 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.50

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Ben Brittain run for 8 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 2Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.15

Dylan Carson run for 20 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Ben Brittain pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Ben Brittain run for 5 yds to the BOIS 32

3rd & 5Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Ben Brittain sacked by Andrew Simpson for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 33

4th & 6Field Goal Good+50 yds

Matthew Dapore 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 75 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.28

Cade Harris run for no gain to the AFA 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

John Busha run for 4 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.54

John Busha pass complete to Brandon Engel for 11 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the BOIS 48

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

John Busha run for 3 yds to the BOIS 45

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Air Force Penalty, False Start (Emmanuel Michel) to the 50 yard line

3rd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

John Busha run for 2 yds to the BOIS 48

4th & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.74

John Busha pass complete to Brandon Engel for 20 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+45 yds

Matthew Dapore 45 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+68 ydsPPA +3.88

Dylan Carson run for 68 yds to the BOIS 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the BOIS 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the BOIS 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

John Busha run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 17 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

George Holani run for 6 yds to the BOIS 48

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.73

George Holani run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +4.90

Ashton Jeanty run for 50 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

John Busha pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 4 yds to the AFA 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 46 yds, downed at the BOIS 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.16

Taylen Green pass complete to George Holani for 14 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

George Holani run for no gain to the BOIS 37

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 7 yds to the BOIS 44

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.70

George Holani run for 5 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the AFA 40 Boise State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Prince Strachan) to the BOIS 48

1st & 11Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.84

Taylen Green pass intercepted Jayden Goodwin return for no gain to the AFA 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.11

John Busha pass complete to Wyatt Wilson for 38 yds to the BOIS 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the BOIS 21

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the BOIS 19

3rd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Aiden Calvert run for 11 yds to the BOIS 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

John Busha run for 2 yds to the BOIS 6

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the BOIS 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 6 yards to the BOIS 19

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Taylen Green pass incomplete

3rd & 16Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 4 yds to the BOIS 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 70 yds, downed at the AFA 7

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.34

Dylan Carson run for 10 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 20

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 22

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -0.36

John Busha run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 16 Jalen Johnson fumbled, recovered by AFA John Busha QB Keeper BUSHA, John rush to the right for a loss of 6 yards, BUSHA, John fumbled at AFA19 forced by SIMPSON, Andrew, recovered by AFA BUSHA, John at the AFA16, returned 0 yards to the AFA16, End of Play.

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 43 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BOIS 41

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Ashton Jeanty run for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

George Holani run for no gain to the AFA 47

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.06

Taylen Green run for no gain to the AFA 47

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Taylen Green run for no gain to the AFA 47

4th & 10Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

John Busha pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.25

John Busha pass complete to Brandon Engel for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

John Busha run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 29

2nd & 11Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.66

John Busha sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 20

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

John Busha pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 47 yds, fair catch by George Holani at the BOIS 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Taylen Green pass complete to Prince Strachan for 15 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the BOIS 49

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.72

Ashton Jeanty run for 11 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

George Holani run for 5 yds to the AFA 35

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

George Holani run for 2 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Ashton Jeanty run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 35

4th & 5Field Goal Good+52 yds

Jonah Dalmas 52 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.66

John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 17 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

John Busha pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.25

John Busha pass complete to Brandon Engel for 16 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Aiden Calvert run for 4 yds to the BOIS 34

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

John Busha pass incomplete

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.97

John Busha pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

George Holani run for no gain to the BOIS 34

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

George Holani run for 4 yds to the BOIS 38

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the BOIS 41

4th & 3Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.02

John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 15 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+15 ydsPPA -1.48

John Busha pass intercepted Kaonohi Kaniho return for 15 yds to the AFA 37

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Air Force Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the AFA 32

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.74

Kneel down by GREEN, Taylen at AFA35 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
26 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
30%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
100%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Boise State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
62%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
80%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th