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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2023Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 17.8

Home Win Probability

Colorado State 14%

Market (Bovada)

Colorado State +14.5

Edge: Air Force -14.5 (3.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 28, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
7610730
Colorado StateColorado State
0130013

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-710-713-1313-2013-2313-30
Colorado StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFDOWNS744ydTD1254ydPUNT829ydPUNT32ydTD161ydPUNT617ydFG1267ydPUNT32ydTO2-13ydTD311ydFG843ydEND314ydTD1075ydPUNT622ydFG869ydPUNT30ydPUNT522ydDOWNS726ydTD336ydDOWNS1260ydEND820yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Colorado State
StatisticAir ForceColorado State
Passing4-728-45
Pass Yards32297
Rush Yards26142
Total Yards293339
Turnovers01
3rd Down8-155-13
Penalties2-155-54
Possession35:5824:02

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Zachary Larrier
4/7, 32 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Emmanuel Michel
20 CAR, 130 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Brandon Engel
1 REC, 14 YDS
defense
Colorado State
passing
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
28/45, 297 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Vann Schield
14 CAR, 53 YDS
receiving
Justus Ross-Simmons
8 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 60 yds , return for no gain to the CSU 10

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 18

2nd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.35

Vann Schield run for 10 yds to the CSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.58

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 48

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 4 yds to the AFA 48

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the AFA 46

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.48

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for no gain to the AFA 46

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.36

John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the CSU 35

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the CSU 34

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the CSU 32

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.38

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the CSU 28

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the CSU 21

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the CSU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the CSU 13

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the CSU 9

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.76

Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 8 yds to the CSU 16

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the CSU 17

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.39

Louis Brown IV run for 2 yds to the CSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the CSU 28

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 4 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 1 yd to the CSU 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 4 yds to the CSU 37

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 47 yds, downed at the AFA 16

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.65

John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 12

2nd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 18

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Zac Larrier pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+61 ydsPPA +4.86

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 61 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 27

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Zac Larrier run for 9 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the AFA 36

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 36

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Zac Larrier pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 6 yds to the AFA 42

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.65

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 14 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the CSU 32

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.60

Vann Schield run for 8 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 9 yds to the CSU 49

2nd & 1Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.37

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 14 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the AFA 35

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.73

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 9 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the AFA 23

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+40 yds

Jordan Noyes 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.03

Zac Larrier run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Zac Larrier pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -0.92

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the CSU 11

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the CSU 9

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.35

John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 10

3rd & 9Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +3.03

John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the CSU 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.61

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 14 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 5 yds to the CSU 49

2nd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.32

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 17 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Vann Schield run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 1 yd to the AFA 32

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+49 yds

Jordan Noyes 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Aiden Calvert run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Zac Larrier pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 3 yds to the AFA 40

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

2nd & 7Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Zac Larrier sacked by Grady Kelly and James Mitchell for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 1Penalty+15 yds

Colorado State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the CSU 48

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the CSU 44

3rd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.61

John Lee Eldridge III run for 12 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the CSU 30

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the CSU 28

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.03

Zac Larrier pass complete to Brandon Engel for 14 yds to the CSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the CSU 10

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.63

John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the CSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Zac Larrier run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the CSU 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.15

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Vann Schield run for 2 yds to the CSU 45

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 2 yds to the CSU 47

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the AFA 25

3rd & 5Rush+53 ydsPPA +4.26

Emmanuel Michel run for 53 yds to the CSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+4 yds

Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Holding (4 Yards) to the CSU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Penalty-10 yds

KINAMON, Dane rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the CSU0, TOUCHDOWN AFA, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:14 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY AFA Holding on ELDRIDGE III, John Lee enforced 10 yards from the CSU9 to the CSU19. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 19Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.51

Zac Larrier run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 20

2nd & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the CSU 14

3rd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds to the CSU 11

4th & 11Field Goal Good+29 yds

Matthew Dapore 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 48 yds, downed at the AFA 27

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 5Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.46

Emmanuel Michel run for 12 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Dane Kinamon run for 2 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 49

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Zac Larrier pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 41 yds, downed at the CSU 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 7 yds to the CSU 17

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 12

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 6 yds to the CSU 18

3rd & 2Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.46

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 15 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.59

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 6 yards to the CSU 27

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

3rd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.19

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 9 yds to the CSU 36

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.05

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

QB Keeper LARRIER, Zac rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the CSU34 (WILSON, Chase;BLACKBURN, Henry). PENALTY CSU Face mask on WILSON, Chase enforced 15 yards from the CSU34 to the CSU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.28

Emmanuel Michel run for 11 yds to the CSU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the CSU 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Vann Schield run for 6 yds to the CSU 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.60

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 5 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Vann Schield run for 3 yds to the CSU 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.95

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 14 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.74

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 15 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the AFA 28

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.93

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 6 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 7 yds to the AFA 15

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.72

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 19

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the AFA 24

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.92

Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.17

Owen Burk run for 7 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at AFA39 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at AFA37 (team loss of 2).

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at AFA35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
26%
23 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
71%
7 plays
18%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Colorado State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
25 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
38%
13 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play