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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 20.7

Home Win Probability

Air Force 88%

Market (Bovada)

Air Force -11

Edge: Air Force -11 (9.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
San Diego StateSan Diego State
0100010
Air ForceAir Force
02121749

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-77-714-728-1035-1049-10
Air ForceSan Diego State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSSDSAFSDSAFPUNT417ydPUNT643ydTD1780ydTD775ydPUNT30ydTD953ydPUNT48ydTD680ydFG831ydTD675ydPUNT38ydTD679ydTD10ydPUNT36ydTD1685ydDOWNS1357ydEND3-5yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing San Diego State and Air Force
StatisticSan Diego StateAir Force
Passing13-256-7
Pass Yards122189
Rush Yards105287
Total Yards227476
Turnovers10
3rd Down4-134-8
Penalties5-341-5
Possession27:5532:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

San Diego State
passing
Jalen Mayden
13/24, 122 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kenan Christon
14 CAR, 58 YDS
receiving
Mark Redman
2 REC, 27 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Zachary Larrier
6/7, 189 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Zachary Larrier
8 CAR, 103 YDS
receiving
Cade Harris
2 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 21 yds to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Shotgun Christon,Kenan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDS48 (Boyd,CJ; Mock,Alec) PENALTY SDS Holding (Jones,Christian) 10 yards from SDS46 to SDS36. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.25

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 11 yds to the SDSU 47

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SDSU 49

3rd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.40

Jalen Mayden sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSU 42

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 12

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the AFA 16

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.51

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +3.22

Zac Larrier run for 41 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SDSU 39

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the SDSU 41

3rd & 14Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the SDSU 45

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 45 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Jaylon Armstead run for 9 yds to the SDSU 29

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Baylin Brooks

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.06

Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSU 35

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 6 yds to the SDSU 41

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.78

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 6 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Baylin Brooks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 8 yds to the AFA 45

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the AFA 45

4th & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.22

Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Kenan Christon run for no gain to the AFA 38

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.47

Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.26

Jaylon Armstead run for 11 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the AFA 21

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.96

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Joshua Nicholson for 21 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 5Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.97

Zac Larrier run for 34 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Aiden Calvert run for 2 yds to the SDSU 34

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SDSU 30

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Brandon Engel

4th & 4Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.19

Zac Larrier pass complete to Cade Harris for 28 yds to the SDSU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Penalty-5 yds

Burk,Owen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:38 PENALTY AF False Start (Carlan,Mason) 5 yards from SDS02 to SDS07. NO PLAY.

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Cade Harris run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Kenan Christon return for 14 yds to the SDSU 14

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Martin Blake run for no gain to the SDSU 14

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne Penny

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Baylin Brooks

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 47

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Owen Burk run for 1 yd to the AFA 48

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds to the SDSU 47

3rd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.88

Zac Larrier pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 10 yds to the SDSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Owen Burk run for 6 yds to the SDSU 31

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.14

Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the SDSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SDSU 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.43

Zac Larrier pass complete to Brandon Engel for 18 yds to the SDSU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the SDSU 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY SDS False Start (Penny,Brionne) 5 yards from SDS25 to SDS20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.67

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 16 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the SDSU 33

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Brionne Penny

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Phillippe Wesley II

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 20

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Zac Larrier run for 11 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Zac Larrier run for 15 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SDSU 48

2nd & 4Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.02

Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Samuela Tuihalamaka) to the SDSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.32

Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 26 yds to the SDSU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Joshua Nicholson

2nd & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.69

Kenan Christon run for 22 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 7 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.21

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark Redman

4th & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.64

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 7 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY SDS False Start (Azzopardi,Drew) 5 yards from AF 39 to AF 44. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Field Goal Good+61 yds

Jack Browning 61 yd FG GOOD

0th & 15End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 41

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.94

Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+54 ydsPPA +4.18

Zac Larrier pass complete to Cade Harris for 54 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSU 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 7 yds to the SDSU 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Leo Kemp

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.36

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 33

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.29

John Lee Eldridge III run for 14 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Kendin Alexander run for no gain to the AFA 47

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+53 ydsPPA +5.25

Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 53 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+30 ydsPPA -7.92

Trey Taylor 30 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Dapore Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the SDSU 30

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 2 yds to the SDSU 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 54 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 21

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.24

Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Owen Burk run for 1 yd to the AFA 47

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.17

Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Owen Burk run for 9 yds to the SDSU 41

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA -0.09

Dylan Carson run for 10 yds to the SDSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the SDSU 29

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the SDSU 26

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the SDSU 23

4th & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.09

Dylan Carson run for 10 yds to the SDSU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the SDSU 8

2nd & 5Penalty+4 yds

PENALTY SDS Offside (Tuihalamaka,Samuela) 4 yards from SDS08 to SDS04. NO PLAY.

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Dylan Carson run for no gain to the SDSU 4

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.48

Jensen Jones run for 4 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Colton Corrao kickoff for 63 yds , Kenan Christon return for 12 yds to the SDSU 14

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 19

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SDSU 21

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.88

Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the SDSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jaylon Armstead for 6 yds to the SDSU 32

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.52

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Martin Blake for 4 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Cam Davis run for 6 yds to the SDSU 42

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Martin Blake run for 3 yds to the SDSU 45

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.02

Martin Blake run for 1 yd to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.13

Jalen Mayden run for 17 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the AFA 33

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Cam Davis run for 2 yds to the AFA 28

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.13

Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the AFA 29

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.95

B. Brittain takes a knee

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.46

C. Turner takes a knee

3rd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.15

J. Busha takes a knee

Situational Analysis

San Diego State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
20 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
71%
7 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
4 plays

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
58%
26 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
100%
5 plays
63%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play