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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2023Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 12.3

Home Win Probability

San José State 20%

Market (Bovada)

San José State +6.5

Edge: Air Force -6.5 (5.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
31472145
San José StateSan José State
6140020

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428426-06-36-1013-1020-1020-2420-3120-3820-45
San José StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFTD875ydFG1362ydPUNT35ydTD1065ydTD660ydPUNT35ydTD564ydTD1275ydEND1-11ydTD1575ydPUNT38ydTD1371ydDOWNS625ydTD440ydTO847ydTD522ydDOWNS1274ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and San José State
StatisticAir ForceSan José State
Passing2-224-35
Pass Yards28239
Rush Yards400115
Total Yards428354
Turnovers01
3rd Down10-153-8
Penalties4-436-48
Possession39:0520:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Zachary Larrier
2/2, 28 YDS
rushing
Emmanuel Michel
33 CAR, 148 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Jared Roznos
1 REC, 22 YDS
defense
San José State
passing
Chevan Cordeiro
24/35, 239 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Kairee Robinson
7 CAR, 82 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Dominick Mazotti
5 REC, 60 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jabari Bates for 2 yds to the SJSU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.29

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.60

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 8 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jabari Bates for 4 yds to the SJSU 49

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.09

Kairee Robinson run for 8 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +0.84

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 33 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Chevan Cordeiro run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

John Lee Eldridge III run for 14 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 48

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.07

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the SJSU 46

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the SJSU 43

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.33

Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the SJSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SJSU 33

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.51

Aiden Calvert run for 13 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 18

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Zac Larrier run for no gain to the SJSU 18

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the SJSU 13

4th & 3Field Goal Good+30 yds

Reagan Tubbs 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 7 yds to the SJSU 37

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

(02:27) CORDEIRO, Chevan pass short to the right complete for 21 yards to ROSS, Charles caught at the SJS40 and advanced to the AFA42 (BELLAMY, Jamari), out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, SJS Illegal Formation on PARDUE, Anthony enforced 5 yards from the SJS37 to the SJS32. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Skylar Loving-Black for 4 yds fumbled, forced by Alec Mock, recovered by SJSU Skylar Loving-Black

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Chevan Cordeiro run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 35

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Alex Weir punt for 30 yds

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.40

Emmanuel Michel run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Zac Larrier run for 8 yds to the SJSU 42

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.01

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Air Force Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dane Kinamon) to the SJSU 45

4th & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.72

Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 6 yds to the SJSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the SJSU 17

1st & 19Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SJSU 39

2nd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SJSU 33

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the SJSU 30

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.36

Emmanuel Michel run for 17 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 55 yds , return for no gain to the SJSU 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 6 yds to the SJSU 46

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.74

Jabari Bates run for 7 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.56

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 10 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Nick Nash run for no gain to the AFA 37

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 8 yds to the AFA 29

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +3.21

Kairee Robinson run for 29 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 25

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Emmanuel Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24

3rd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.46

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 16 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +1.13

Kairee Robinson run for 33 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Air Force Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Jerome Gaillard Jr.) to the AFA 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Quali Conley run for 7 yds to the AFA 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

John Lee Eldridge III run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 43

3rd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.43

Emmanuel Michel run for 11 yds to the SJSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the SJSU 41

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the SJSU 38

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.86

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(01:07) LARRIER, Zac scrambles to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the SJS30 (LAVULO, Noah;LIKIO, Quincy). PENALTY AFA Holding on ELDRIDGE III, John Lee enforced 10 yards from the SJS34 to the SJS44 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 9Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.92

Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 22 yds to the SJSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 20Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.15

Aiden Calvert run for 11 yds to the SJSU 33

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.41

Zac Larrier run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 13

2nd & 12Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.30

John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the SJSU 4

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.64

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(00:25) ROBINSON, Kairee rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the SJS37 (MOCK, Alec;GOODWIN, Jayden). PENALTY SJS Holding on PARDUE, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the SJS28 to the SJS18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.17

(00:21) Kneel down by CORDEIRO, Chevan at SJS17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 20End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.95

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.61

Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the SJSU 47

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the SJSU 44

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.34

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SJSU 35

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SJSU 31

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.53

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SJSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the SJSU 25

2nd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.31

Dylan Carson run for 14 yds to the SJSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SJSU 7

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SJSU 5

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.71

John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Chevan Cordeiro run for 8 yds to the SJSU 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Alex Weir punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 29

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

San José State Penalty, Offsides (Bryun Parham) to the AFA 34

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.70

John Lee Eldridge III run for 15 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the SJSU 32

2nd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.25

Aiden Calvert run for 14 yds to the SJSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the SJSU 13

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Aiden Calvert run for 4 yds to the SJSU 9

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.34

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the SJSU 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the SJSU 5

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the SJSU 2

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the SJSU 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 58 yds , return for no gain to the SJSU 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 7 yds to the SJSU 22

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.57

Kairee Robinson run for 9 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 6 yds to the SJSU 37

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds to the SJSU 40

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Kairee Robinson run for no gain to the SJSU 40

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the SJSU 37

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the SJSU 33

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Emmanuel Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 34

4th & 4Rushing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +4.78

John Lee Eldridge III run for 34 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 62 yds , return for no gain to the SJSU 8

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.12

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 1 yd to the SJSU 9

3rd & 9Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.53

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 31 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 5 yds to the SJSU 45

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.88

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 6 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 4 yds to the AFA 45

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

3rd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -1.98

Chevan Cordeiro pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 20

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the SJSU 19

3rd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Dylan Carson run for 14 yds to the SJSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jet Harris run for 3 yds to the SJSU 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Jet Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 56 yds , return for no gain to the SJSU 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.05

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 17 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 4 yds to the SJSU 35

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.09

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 6 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Chevan Cordeiro run for 1 yd to the SJSU 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.79

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Skylar Loving-Black for 29 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.57

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 9 yds to the AFA 20

3rd & 1Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for 8 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.38

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

(00:05) Kneel down by JONES, Jensen at AFA10 (team loss of 2).

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
35%
26 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
80%
5 plays
33%
12 plays
43%
7 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
78%
9 plays
100%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays

San José State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
23 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
67%
6 plays
56%
9 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play