Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Boise State by 4.2

Home Win Probability

Boise State 61%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Boise State -15

Edge: North Dakota +15 (10.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North Dakota
0612018
Boise StateBoise State
71471442

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-614-621-628-628-1835-1842-18
Boise StateNorth Dakota

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BSNDBSNDBSNDBSNDBSNDNDBSNDBSNDBSNDBSNDBSNDBSNDBSNDBSPUNT415ydPUNT39ydTD1271ydTD1177ydPUNT33ydPUNT35ydTD1185ydTO940ydTD748ydEND52ydTO2-4ydTO12ydPUNT31ydTD337ydPUNT3-3ydTO10ydTD536ydTO16ydTD631ydPUNT621ydPUNT3-2ydTD1058ydDOWNS921ydTD546ydPUNT35ydEND424yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Dakota and Boise State
StatisticNorth DakotaBoise State
Passing17-3122-33
Pass Yards142262
Rush Yards41132
Total Yards183394
Turnovers23
3rd Down4-1310-14
Penalties3-374-37
Possession31:3428:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Dakota
passing
Tommy Schuster
17/29, 142 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Luke Skokna
10 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Bo Belquist
8 REC, 63 YDS
defense
Boise State
passing
Taylen Green
18/29, 188 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jambres Dubar
10 CAR, 62 YDS
receiving
Eric McAlister
6 REC, 143 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.10

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 13 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 39

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Taylen Green pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Taylen Green pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 49 yds , returns for no gain to the UND 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Red Wilson for 5 yds to the UND 17

2nd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 1 yd to the UND 18

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Luke Skokna for 3 yds to the UND 21

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Taylen Green pass complete to Jambres Dubar for 6 yds to the BOIS 35

2nd & 4Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.15

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 34

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.90

Taylen Green pass complete to Chase Penry for 7 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Taylen Green pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.32

Taylen Green run for 14 yds to the UND 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the UND 38

2nd & 3Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.33

Chase Penry pass complete to Riley Smith for 17 yds to the UND 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the UND 14

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Taylen Green pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.28

run for 4 yds to the UND 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

run for 2 yds to the UND 8

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Taylen Green run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Gaven Ziebarth run for 2 yds to the UND 25

2nd & 8Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.61

Tommy Schuster sacked by Demitri Washington for a loss of 4 yards to the UND 21

3rd & 12Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.81

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Red Wilson for 12 yds to the UND 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Tommy Schuster run for 7 yds to the UND 40

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.45

Gaven Ziebarth run for 5 yds to the UND 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +1.73

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 41 yds to the BOIS 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 10 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Gaven Ziebarth run for 2 yds to the BOIS 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Gaven Ziebarth run for 1 yd to the BOIS 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Quincy Vaughn 1 Yd Run (Brady Stevens PAT failed)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Taylen Green pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 3 yds to the BOIS 10

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Taylen Green pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 1 yd to the UND 40

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Luke Skokna run for 4 yds to the UND 44

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chase Penry at the BOIS 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BOIS 20

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BOIS 22

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.85

Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the BOIS 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 24

2nd & 12Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.64

Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 34 yds to the UND 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the UND 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.24

Taylen Green pass complete to Prince Strachan for 26 yds to the UND 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the UND 10

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

run for 1 yd to the UND 9

3rd & 5Penalty+7 yds

GREEN, Taylen pass to the left incomplete intended for MCALISTER, Eric broken up by SIEGEL, CJ at the UND2. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on SIEGEL, CJ enforced 7 yards to the UND2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Ashton Jeanty run for no gain to the UND 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

A. Jeanty run for 2 yds for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Gaven Ziebarth run for 8 yds to the UND 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Gaven Ziebarth run for 2 yds to the UND 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Gaven Ziebarth run for 7 yds to the UND 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Nick Kupfer for 2 yds to the UND 44

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Gaven Ziebarth run for 2 yds to the UND 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Tommy Schuster run for 3 yds to the UND 49

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BOIS 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-14 ydsPPA -3.10

Tommy Schuster sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the UND 48

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the UND 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 8 yds to the UND 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.48

Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 21 yds to the UND 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Taylen Green pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 8 yds to the UND 8

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.67

Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the UND 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

A. Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 3 yds to the UND 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.88

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Red Wilson for 9 yds to the UND 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.18

Tommy Schuster sacked by Ahmed Hassanein and Braxton Fely for a loss of 10 yards to the UND 27

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Gaven Ziebarth run for 3 yds to the UND 23

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-7 ydsPPA -0.38

Gaven Ziebarth run for a loss of 7 yards to the UND 14 Gaven Ziebarth fumbled, recovered by BOIS Braxton Fely

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -4.45

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 2 yds Ashton Jeanty fumbled, recovered by UND Wyatt Pedigo

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Gaven Ziebarth run for 1 yd to the UND 13

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt+39 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the UND 37 , returns for no gain to the UND 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Taylen Green pass complete to Jambres Dubar for 2 yds to the UND 35

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the UND 28

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +3.04

T. Green pass to E. McAlister for 28 yds for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 5 yds to the UND 30

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -1.26

Tommy Schuster run for a loss of 8 yards to the UND 22 Tommy Schuster fumbled, recovered by UND Tommy Schuster

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BOIS 39

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.14

Taylen Green pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (Zion Washington) to the BOIS 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Luke Skokna run for 6 yds to the BOIS 10

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Luke Skokna run for 4 yds to the BOIS 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Wesley Eliodor 6 Yd pass from Tommy Schuster (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -0.92

Ashton Jeanty run for 6 yds to the BOIS 31 Ashton Jeanty fumbled, recovered by UND Wyatt Pedigo

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Luke Skokna run for 5 yds to the BOIS 26

3rd & 5Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.21

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 28

4th & 7Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.15

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Wright for 19 yds to the BOIS 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Luke Skokna run for 6 yds to the BOIS 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Luke Skokna 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jambres Dubar run for 5 yds to the BOIS 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Jambres Dubar run for 3 yds to the BOIS 33

3rd & 2Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.75

Taylen Green run for 21 yds to the UND 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -2.69

Stefan Cobbs run for a loss of 8 yards to the BOIS 46

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Taylen Green pass incomplete

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Taylen Green pass incomplete

4th & 18Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 54 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Gaven Ziebarth run for 4 yds to the UND 24

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

3rd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.36

Tommy Schuster sacked by Ty Benefield for a loss of 6 yards to the UND 18

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Stefan Cobbs at the BOIS 42

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Taylen Green pass complete to Jambres Dubar for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 41

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Taylen Green pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.52

Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 20 yds to the UND 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -3.22

Taylen Green sacked by Malachi McNeal for a loss of 12 yards to the BOIS 49

2nd & 22Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Taylen Green pass complete to Kaden Dudley for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 21Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.25

Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 13 yds to the UND 37

4th & 8Penalty+15 yds

DALMAS, Jonah field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at UND44], score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UND Roughing the Kicker on OCANSEY, Edmund enforced 15 yards from the UND37 to the UND22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.22

Jambres Dubar run for 13 yds to the UND 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the UND 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

run for 1 yd to the UND 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Ashton Jeanty 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Gaven Ziebarth run for 5 yds to the UND 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 4 yds to the UND 34

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

Boise State Penalty, Offsides (Michael Callahan) to the UND 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Luke Skokna run for 7 yds to the UND 46

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.04

Luke Skokna run for 1 yd to the UND 47

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.64

Luke Skokna run for 7 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.52

Tommy Schuster sacked by Ahmed Hassanein for a loss of 7 yards to the UND 47

2nd & 17Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.19

Tommy Schuster sacked by Zion Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the UND 38

3rd & 26Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.11

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jack Wright for 8 yds to the UND 46

4th & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.14

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jambres Dubar run for 5 yds to the UND 41

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Jambres Dubar run for 3 yds to the UND 38

3rd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.92

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 6 yds to the UND 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jambres Dubar run for 5 yds to the UND 27

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.79

M. Madsen pass to E. McAlister for 27 yds for a TD (J. Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Donavan Hunt run for 5 yds to the UND 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Trey Feeney pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Trey Feeney pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Luke Silvernale punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Kaden Dudley run for 7 yds to the BOIS 44

2nd & 3Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.06

Kaden Dudley run for a loss of 4 yards to the BOIS 40

3rd & 7Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.39

Maddux Madsen pass complete to Billy Bowens for 24 yds to the UND 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Kneel down by MADSEN, Maddux at UND39 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

North Dakota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
50%
24 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
17%
6 plays
13%
8 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Boise State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
41%
29 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
17%
6 plays
75%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
7 plays
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th