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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 17.4

Home Win Probability

Air Force 84%

Market (Bovada)

Air Force -8.5

Edge: Air Force -8.5 (8.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Utah StateUtah State
077721
Air ForceAir Force
22107039

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428428-022-029-029-739-739-1439-21
Air ForceUtah State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20USAFUSAFUSAFUSAFUSAFUSAFAFUSAFUSAFUSAFPUNT30ydTD1263ydTO2-14ydTD311ydPUNT414ydTD779ydTO452ydTD572ydPUNT524ydPUNT39ydTD1157ydFG843ydTD1046ydTD1079ydPUNT38ydDOWNS1555ydPUNT518ydTD765ydEND1359yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Utah State and Air Force
StatisticUtah StateAir Force
Passing20-353-4
Pass Yards24884
Rush Yards54344
Total Yards302428
Turnovers20
3rd Down3-119-13
Penalties4-176-60
Possession21:2038:40

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Utah State
passing
McCae Hillstead
18/27, 202 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Rahsul Faison
7 CAR, 40 YDS
receiving
Micah Davis
4 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Air Force
passing
Zachary Larrier
3/4, 84 YDS
rushing
Owen Burk
15 CAR, 110 YDS
receiving
Jared Roznos
1 REC, 49 YDS
defense
Alec Mock
2 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Terrell Vaughn

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Davon Booth run for no gain to the USU 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Terrell Vaughn

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 37

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Owen Burk run for 9 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Owen Burk run for 6 yds to the USU 45

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.43

Owen Burk run for 6 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Owen Burk run for 7 yds to the USU 32

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.01

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the USU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the USU 21

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the USU 20

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 7 yds to the USU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 10

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.70

John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the USU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd for a TD (E. Michel Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Penalty+2 yds

PENALTY USU Offside (Barthiel,Gavin) 2 yards from USU03 to USU01. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

PENALTY USU Offside (Larsen,Ike). NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the USU 20

2nd & 15Fumble Recovery (Own)-9 ydsPPA -0.24

Cooper Legas sacked by Alec Mock for a loss of 9 yards to the USU 11 Cooper Legas fumbled, recovered by AFA Bo Richter , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the USU 6

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the USU 4

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.64

Zac Larrier run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Rahsul Faison run for 10 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Colby Bowman

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the USU 39

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Cooper Legas pass incomplete to Jalen Royals

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 21

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Zac Larrier run for 8 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.56

John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +2.41

Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 49 yds to the USU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the USU 9

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.09

Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the USU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the USU 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds to the USU 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.20

Cooper Legas pass complete to Micah Davis for 23 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.88

Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 23 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.34

Cooper Legas pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.17

Owen Burk run for 24 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.07

Zac Larrier pass complete to Brandon Engel for 28 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 17

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Dane Kinamon run for 4 yds to the USU 13

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.77

John Lee Eldridge III run for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Terrell Vaughn return for 18 yds to the USU 18

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Jalen Royals

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.04

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 20 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Broc Lane

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the USU 43

3rd & 5Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Hillstead,McCae rush left for 0 yards to the USU43 (Richter,Bo) PENALTY USU Holding (Motes,Cole) 10 yards from USU43 to USU33. NO PLAY.

3rd & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.31

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 9 yds to the USU 42

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 15

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 18

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 20

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the USU 39

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the USU 46

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

Air Force Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.51

McCae Hillstead run for 18 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the AFA 16

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.13

Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the AFA 10

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.35

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Davon Booth for 9 yds to the AFA 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Levi Williams run for no gain to the AFA 1

4th & 1Penalty+3 yds

Shotgun Vaughn,Terrell rush left for 3 yards loss to the AF 04 (Taylor,Trey) PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Taylor,Trey), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 1Rush+1 yds

Levi Williams run for 1 yd to the AFA 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Levi Williams pass incomplete to Terrell Vaughn

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 2 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Zac Larrier run for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the USU 47

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the USU 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.88

Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.46

Zac Larrier sacked by Cole Joyce for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 17Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.14

Zac Larrier run for 10 yds to the USU 40

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.80

John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+49 yds

Matthew Dapore 49 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the USU 40

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.36

Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the USU 28

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the USU 23

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.23

Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Owen Burk run for 7 yds to the USU 13

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the USU 2

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the USU 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Terrell Vaughn return for 21 yds to the USU 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.14

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 9 yds to the USU 30

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the USU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.14

McCae Hillstead sacked by Alec Mock for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 49

2nd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

McCae Hillstead run for 5 yds to the AFA 46

3rd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.99

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 24 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.13

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 11 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Terrell Vaughn

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the AFA 9

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.97

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 9 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the USU 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Terrell Vaughn

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.84

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 12 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Otto Tia

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Terrell Vaughn

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Air Force Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Alec Mock) to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 5Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.51

McCae Hillstead sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 45

3rd & 12Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Hillstead,McCae pass incomplete short right to Lane,Broc PENALTY AF Holding (Collins,Corey) 10 yards from AF 45 to AF 35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Jalen Royals

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 7 yds to the AFA 28

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Terrell Vaughn

4th & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.42

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 4 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.23

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 2 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.48

McCae Hillstead sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 28

3rd & 14Penalty0 yds

Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

4th & 16Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA -1.21

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 12 yds to the AFA 18

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 24

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.79

John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 3Penalty-10 yds

Calvert,Aiden rush left for 39 yards gain to the USU21 (Migao,Enoka) PENALTY AF Holding (Karas,Adam) 10 yards from AF 40 to AF 30. NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Aiden Calvert run for 6 yds to the AFA 36

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Brandon Engel

4th & 7Punt+11 yds

Luke Freer punt for 40 yds , Micah Davis returns for 11 yds to the USU 35

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Rahsul Faison run for 12 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.90

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 8 yds to the AFA 45

2nd & 2Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +0.64

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 31 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the AFA 12

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

McCae Hillstead pass incomplete to Colby Bowman

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Colby Bowman for 6 yds to the AFA 6

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.93

McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 6 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Owen Burk run for 25 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST down Air Force Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wyatt Wilson) to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the USU 48

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.22

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the USU 37

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.10

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the USU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the USU 26

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the USU 22

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.18

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the USU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 18

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the USU 15

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the USU 14

4th & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.72

Jalen Johnson run for 3 yds to the USU 11 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Utah State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
26 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
45%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
64%
28 plays
2nd
38%
8 plays
50%
10 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
78%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play