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← Back to GamesNov 9, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 25.3

Home Win Probability

Toledo 93%

Market (Bovada)

Toledo -20

Edge: Toledo -20 (5.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 9, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan
0361423
ToledoToledo
21147749

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-028-035-035-342-349-949-1649-23
ToledoEastern Michigan

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20EMTOLEMTOLEMTOLEMTOLEMTOLEMTOLEMTOLEMTOLEMTOLEMTOLTO611ydTD541ydPUNT827ydTD882ydPUNT3-5ydTD128ydPUNT516ydTD887ydPUNT39ydTD987ydFG1157ydTO652ydPUNT413ydTD692ydTD567ydTD1374ydTD1160ydTO3-7ydTD524ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Eastern Michigan and Toledo
StatisticEastern MichiganToledo
Passing10-2523-27
Pass Yards114407
Rush Yards141101
Total Yards255508
Turnovers12
3rd Down6-155-7
Penalties7-534-39
Possession28:5131:09

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Eastern Michigan
passing
Austin Smith
9/24, 86 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Jaylon Jackson
16 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Elijah Jackson-Anderson
1 REC, 28 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
23/27, 407 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Peny Boone
11 CAR, 52 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Peny Boone
4 REC, 116 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Austin Smith run for 6 yds to the EMU 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 1 yd to the EMU 32

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Samson Evans run for 4 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jaylon Jackson run for no gain to the EMU 36

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Austin Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.18

Austin Smith pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.50

Jacquez Stuart run for 14 yds to the EMU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the EMU 25

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.47

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 12 yds to the EMU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the EMU 10

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.64

Dequan Finn pass complete to Dalton Andrews for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jaylon Jackson run for 4 yds to the EMU 17

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.24

Austin Smith pass complete to JB Mitchell III for 15 yds to the EMU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Eastern Michigan Penalty, False Start (JB Mitchell III) to the EMU 27

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jaylon Jackson run for 4 yds to the EMU 31

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Austin Smith run for 8 yds to the EMU 39

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.56

Jaylon Jackson run for 4 yds to the EMU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Austin Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the EMU 45

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Austin Smith pass incomplete

4th & 8Penalty-5 yds

Eastern Michigan Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the EMU 40

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Mitchell Tomasek punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.12

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 26 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 8 yds to the EMU 48

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the EMU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Junior Vandeross III run for 2 yds to the EMU 44

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the EMU 43

3rd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.03

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the EMU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.51

Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 25 yds to the EMU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Peny Boone run for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Eastern Michigan Penalty, False Start (Zack Conti) to the EMU 12

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Austin Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Austin Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Austin Smith pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Mitchell Tomasek punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 28 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Samson Evans run for 3 yds to the EMU 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Austin Smith pass complete to Hamze El-Zayat for 8 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Austin Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Samson Evans run for 5 yds to the EMU 41

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Austin Smith pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mitchell Tomasek punt for 46 yds, downed at the TOL 13

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 13

2nd & 10Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +3.91

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 47 yds to the EMU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the EMU 37

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the EMU 35

4th & 5Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.48

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 24 yds to the EMU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.81

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Austin Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Austin Smith run for 5 yds to the EMU 35

3rd & 5Penalty+4 yds

Toledo penalty, Offsides (T. Taylor)

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Samson Evans run for no gain to the EMU 39

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mitchell Tomasek punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.53

Dequan Finn sacked by Peyton Price for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 10

2nd & 13Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.08

Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 26 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the TOL 39

3rd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.05

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 17 yds to the EMU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.60

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 14 yds to the EMU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the EMU 29

2nd & 9Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.36

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 24 yds to the EMU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jaylon Jackson run for 3 yds to the EMU 39

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.26

Jaylon Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMU 36

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.63

Austin Smith pass complete to JB Mitchell III for 10 yds to the EMU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Austin Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

JACKSON, Jaylon rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the EMU44 (GANT, Dallas). PENALTY TOL Face mask on GANT, Dallas enforced 15 yards from the EMU46 to the TOL39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the TOL 38

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Terry Lockett Jr. run for 6 yds to the TOL 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the TOL 30

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.24

Austin Smith run for 1 yd to the TOL 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Austin Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

SMITH, Austin pass to the left incomplete intended for EL-ZAYAT, Hamze thrown to the TOL21. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference on FULLER, Andre enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the TOL24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.48

Austin Smith pass complete to Samson Evans for 17 yds to the TOL 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Field Goal Good+25 yds

Jesus Gomez 25 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.37

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 13 yds to the EMU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.92

Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 18 yds to the EMU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the EMU 25

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.06

Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 9 yds to the EMU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.43

Dequan Finn pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.56

Jaylon Jackson run for 17 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jaylon Jackson run for no gain to the TOL 48

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.72

Austin Smith sacked by Cavon Butler and Adrian Woliver for a loss of 4 yards to the EMU 48

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Austin Smith pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Mitchell Tomasek punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 8

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 14

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds to the TOL 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Eastern Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Korey Hernandez) to the EMU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Devin Maddox run for 3 yds to the EMU 16

2nd & 7Penalty0 yds

Eastern Michigan Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chase Kline) to the EMU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Peny Boone run for 7 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Luke Pawlak kickoff for 43 yds , return for no gain to the EMU 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Austin Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Jaylon Jackson run for 3 yds to the EMU 36

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 5 yds to the EMU 41

4th & 2Penalty+15 yds

EVANS, Samson rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the EMU39 (GANT, Dallas). PENALTY TOL Face mask on FORD, Zachary enforced 15 yards from the EMU41 to the TOL44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.65

Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 16 yds to the TOL 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Samson Evans pass complete to Elijah Jackson-Anderson for 28 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 29

2nd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.66

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 12 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 41

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the TOL 46

3rd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.72

Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 18 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the EMU 30

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the EMU 27

3rd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 4 yds to the EMU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the EMU 17

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the EMU 17

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.41

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 6 yds to the EMU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+6 yds

Eastern Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Adrian Gonzalez) to the EMU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Peny Boone run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.14

Jaylon Jackson run for 13 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Austin Smith pass complete to Max Reese for 2 yds to the TOL 45

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jaylon Jackson run for 6 yds to the TOL 39

3rd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Jaylon Jackson run for 12 yds to the TOL 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -2.61

Austin Smith sacked by Malachi Davis and CJ Wilson Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the TOL 39

2nd & 22Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.45

Austin Smith pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 12 yds to the TOL 27

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Dontae McMillan run for no gain to the TOL 27

4th & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.28

Austin Smith run for 13 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Austin Smith run for 8 yds to the TOL 6

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Austin Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.59

Jaylon Jackson run for 6 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the TOL 34

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the TOL 35

3rd & 6Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.76

Tucker Gleason sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the TOL 24

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Dontae McMillan run for 4 yds to the TOL 20

2nd & 6Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.50

Dontae McMillan run for 18 yds to the TOL 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Dontae McMillan run for no gain to the TOL 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Dontae McMillan run for 1 yd to the TOL 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Dontae McMillan 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

[SG] Kneel down by GLEASON, Tucker at TOL31 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Eastern Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
32%
22 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
0%
1 play
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
48%
29 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
60%
5 plays
64%
11 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
1 play
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play