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← Back to GamesOct 14, 2023Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 19.4

Home Win Probability

Ball State 10%

Market (Bovada)

Ball State +17.5

Edge: Toledo -17.5 (1.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 14, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ToledoToledo
3001013
Ball StateBall State
03036

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40140-33-33-66-66-13
Ball StateToledo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLBSTOLPUNT619ydFG1687ydPUNT38ydTO631ydPUNT33ydPUNT38ydFG1463ydDOWNS717ydPUNT48ydEND16ydDOWNS1026ydPUNT727ydPUNT33ydPUNT515ydFG1983ydFG1066ydTD672ydTO42ydEND428yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Toledo and Ball State
StatisticToledoBall State
Passing15-274-16
Pass Yards16638
Rush Yards210167
Total Yards376205
Turnovers11
3rd Down10-185-14
Penalties5-566-45
Possession30:1829:42

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
15/27, 166 YDS
rushing
Peny Boone
22 CAR, 148 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Junior Vandeross
5 REC, 49 YDS
defense
Daniel Bolden
1.5 TFL, 1 PD
Ball State
passing
Kiael Kelly
4/16, 38 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Kiael Kelly
18 CAR, 98 YDS
receiving
Ahmad Edwards
3 REC, 38 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Luke Pawlak kickoff for 65 yds , Nick Munson return for 25 yds to the BALL 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the BALL 28

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the BALL 33

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds to the BALL 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Nick Presley

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the BALL 42

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 44

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 5 yds to the TOL 11

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the TOL 13

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.51

Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the TOL 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the TOL 26

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.10

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.01

Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 8 yds to the TOL 39

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Stuart,Jacquez rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TOL46 (King,Kyle; Malry,Aljareek) PENALTY TOL Holding (Long,Tyler) 10 yards from TOL39 to TOL29. NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.56

Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 31 yds to the BALL 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 6 yds to the BALL 34

2nd & 4Penalty+10 yds

(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass complete short right to Zsiros,Thomas for 8 yards to the BSU26 (Riley,Jordan; Baldwin,Thailand) PENALTY BSU Holding (Harmon,Jahmad) 10 yards from BSU34 to BSU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the BALL 27

2nd & 13Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.49

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the BALL 18

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton

4th & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.99

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 8 yds to the BALL 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the BALL 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony Torres

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Eric Holley III

4th & 7Field Goal Good+26 yds

Luke Pawlak 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Luke Pawlak kickoff for 55 yds , Malcolm Gillie return for 25 yds to the BALL 40 Ball State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BALL 18

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the BALL 21

2nd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.39

Kiael Kelly pass complete to Tanner Koziol for no gain to the BALL 21

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the BALL 26

4th & 2Punt+28 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 28 yds to the BALL 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.35

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 10 yds to the BALL 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the BALL 24

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the BALL 20

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.19

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the BALL 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry Stephens

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+8 ydsPPA -4.10

Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the BALL 8 Peny Boone fumbled, recovered by BALL Thailand Baldwin

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the BALL 7

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the BALL 11

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian Magwood

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 34

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the TOL 33

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.83

Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the TOL 42

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 42

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BSU False Start (Mucciolo,Jon) 5 yards from BSU26 to BSU21. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.12

Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 11 yds to the BALL 32

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds to the BALL 35

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.98

Charlie Spegal run for 2 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 39

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.78

Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(09:06) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael sacked for loss of 9 yards to the BSU40 (Bolden,Daniel) PENALTY TOL Tripping (Bolden,Daniel) 15 yards from BSU49 to TOL36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.57

Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the TOL 28

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.44

Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the TOL 20

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.01

Kiael Kelly run for 8 yds to the TOL 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(06:08) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael rush left for 1 yard gain to the TOL11 (Bolden,Daniel) PENALTY BSU Holding (Stewart,Corey) 10 yards from TOL12 to TOL22. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Kiael Kelly run for 7 yds to the TOL 15

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the TOL 11

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol

4th & 9Field Goal Good+28 yds

Jackson Courville 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Jack Drake kickoff for 55 yds , Jerjuan Newton return for 25 yds to the TOL 35

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the TOL 42

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.02

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the TOL 43

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.55

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the TOL 47

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.06

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 10 yds to the BALL 43

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.15

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the BALL 48

1st & 11Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.07

Kiael Kelly run for 14 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Rico Barfield

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 1 yd to the TOL 39

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Malcolm Gillie

4th & 11Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (Kelly,Kiael) 5 yards from TOL39 to TOL44. NO PLAY.

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 8

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Jack Drake kickoff for 41 yds , Adam Beale return for 13 yds to the TOL 37

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 39

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.93

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 6 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the BALL 46

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the BALL 42

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.82

Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the BALL 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the BALL 37

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden Dottin

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.44

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III

1st & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BALL 39

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Maximus Webster

3rd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.78

Kiael Kelly run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Marquez Cooper run for 12 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the TOL 34

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the TOL 36

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian Magwood

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 4

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the TOL 5

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony Torres

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 48 yds , Nick Munson returns for no gain to the BALL 47

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 48 yds , Nick Munson returns for no gain to the BALL 47

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.50

Kiael Kelly run for 14 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the TOL 38

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the TOL 39

3rd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the TOL 33

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (Kelly,Kiael) 5 yards from TOL33 to TOL38. NO PLAY.

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Lucas Borrow punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 8

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.24

Willie Shaw III run for 8 yds to the TOL 16

3rd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.66

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Willie Shaw III run for 6 yds to the TOL 28

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Willie Shaw III run for no gain to the TOL 28

3rd & 4Penalty-10 yds

(01:06) Shotgun Finn,Dequan rush right for 9 yards gain to the TOL37, out of bounds at TOL37 PENALTY TOL Holding (Long,Tyler) 10 yards from TOL28 to TOL18. NO PLAY.

3rd & 14Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.15

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 18 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 36

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the TOL 44

3rd & 2Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.49

Peny Boone run for 21 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Boone,Peny rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU32 (King,Kyle; Makszin,James) PENALTY TOL Illegal Formation (Rosi,Nick) 5 yards from BSU35 to BSU40. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Willie Shaw III run for 9 yds to the BALL 31

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the BALL 28

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.59

Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the BALL 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Dequan Finn pass complete to Willie Shaw III for 5 yds to the BALL 19

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the BALL 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the BALL 10

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the BALL 9

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross III

4th & 7Field Goal Good+27 yds

Luke Pawlak 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BALL 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BALL 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.49

Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 28 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Rico Barfield run for 2 yds to the TOL 41

2nd & 8Penalty+16 yds

(08:04) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL41 (Poynter,Martez) PENALTY TOL UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Poynter,Martez) 16 yards from TOL41 to TOL25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the TOL 21

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Kiael Kelly run for 7 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the TOL 13

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the TOL 9

4th & 5Field Goal Good+26 yds

Jackson Courville 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Jack Drake kickoff for 62 yds , Junior Vandeross III return for 25 yds to the TOL 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.67

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 32 yds to the BALL 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the BALL 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.38

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 9 yds to the BALL 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.18

Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the BALL 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.07

Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the BALL 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Peny Boone run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+2 yds

Luke Pawlak kickoff for 47 yds , Nick Munson return for 2 yds to the BALL 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Rico Barfield run for 2 yds to the BALL 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Rico Barfield

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Malcolm Gillie

4th & 8Interception0 ydsPPA +0.28

Kiael Kelly pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+39 ydsPPA +1.42

Peny Boone run for 39 yds to the BALL 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.75

Kneel down by Toledo at BSU10 for loss of 4 yards.

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.63

Kneel down by Toledo at BSU14 for loss of 4 yards.

3rd & 14Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.24

Kneel down by Toledo at BSU17 for loss of 3 yards.

Situational Analysis

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
56%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
27%
11 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
88%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Ball State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
12%
17 plays
75%
4 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
45%
11 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play