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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 11.9

Home Win Probability

Toledo 77%

Market (Bovada)

Toledo -9

Edge: Toledo -9 (2.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
San José StateSan José State
0107017
ToledoToledo
0714021

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-37-1014-1721-17
ToledoSan José State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SJSTOLSJSTOLSJSSJSTOLSJSTOLSJSTOLSJSTOLSJSTOLSJSSJSTOLSJSSJSTOLSJSTOLDOWNS548ydPUNT38ydMISS1764ydPUNT3-2ydFG1332ydTD236ydTD1898ydEND1-2ydPUNT417ydPUNT25ydTO21ydTD435ydTD863ydPUNT34ydPUNT411ydTD3-1ydPUNT524ydMISS966ydPUNT3-10ydDOWNS49ydPUNT35ydPUNT1039ydEND630yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing San José State and Toledo
StatisticSan José StateToledo
Passing24-4213-23
Pass Yards22892
Rush Yards40229
Total Yards268321
Turnovers13
3rd Down8-186-14
Penalties4-318-73
Possession34:5525:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

San José State
passing
Chevan Cordeiro
24/42, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kairee Robinson
14 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Nick Nash
6 REC, 80 YDS
defense
Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
13/23, 92 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Peny Boone
13 CAR, 123 YDS
receiving
Jerjuan Newton
4 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.07

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 39 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the TOL 35

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 4 yds to the TOL 31

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 4 yds to the TOL 27

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.21

Dominick Mazotti run for no gain to the TOL 27

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Peny Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 26

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the TOL 31

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the TOL 35

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSU 23

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.19

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 11 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds to the SJSU 37

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SJSU 42

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.37

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 3 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the TOL 48

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.45

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 4 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.99

Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Darius Alexander and Jackson Barrow for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 49

3rd & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.53

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 18 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.70

Isaac Jernagin run for 9 yds to the TOL 22

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.43

Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the TOL 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

CORDEIRO, Chevan pass short up the middle complete for -15 yards to NASH, Nick caught at the TOL13 and advanced to the TOL31 (MITCHELL, Quinyon). PENALTY SJS Holding on PARDUE, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the TOL16 to the TOL26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

3rd & 20Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.82

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 9 yds to the TOL 17

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Kyler Halvorsen 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.29

Peny Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 19

3rd & 11Penalty-66 yds

FINN, Dequan pass deep to the right complete for 66 yards to VANDEROSS III, Junior caught at the SJS45 and advanced to the SJS15 (WILLIAMS, Chase). PENALTY TOL Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the TOL19 to the TOL10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 20Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.03

Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 8 yds to the TOL 18

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left complete for -1 yard to OLSON, Sam caught at the SJS49 and advanced to the SJS48 (GANT, Dallas). PENALTY SJS Holding on OSTROM, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the SJS49 to the SJS39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds to the SJSU 47

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds to the TOL 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.54

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 5 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 41

2nd & 11Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.15

Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Judge Culpepper for a loss of 6 yards to the TOL 47

3rd & 17Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.58

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 17 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Quali Conley run for 4 yds to the TOL 26

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Chevan Cordeiro run for 5 yds to the TOL 21

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.18

Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the TOL 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.45

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for no gain to the TOL 19

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+37 yds

Kyler Halvorsen 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 30 yds , return for no gain to the TOL 36

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

CONLEY, Quali pass to the right incomplete intended for MAZOTTI, Dominick thrown to the TOL28; QB hurried by RAGIN, D'Andre. PENALTY TOL Roughing the Passer on RAGIN, D'Andre enforced 15 yards from the TOL36 to the TOL21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the TOL 20

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.93

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 20 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.35

Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the TOL 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FINN, Dequan pass to the right incomplete intended for NEWTON, Jerjuan broken up by DANSBY, Michael at the TOL26. PENALTY TOL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ROGERS, Devan enforced 5 yards from the TOL15 to the TOL10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.40

Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the TOL 19

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 3 yds to the TOL 22

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 32

2nd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 1 yd to the TOL 33

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.75

Willie Shaw III run for 8 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Dequan Finn run for no gain to the TOL 41

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the TOL 42

3rd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.98

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 13 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Willie Shaw III run for 8 yds to the SJSU 37

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 36

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.85

Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 4 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST down

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 11 yds to the SJSU 25

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.29

Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the SJSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the SJSU 15

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.88

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

[NHSG] Kneel down by CORDEIRO, Chevan at SJS16 (team loss of 2).

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.27

Peny Boone run for 14 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 44

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SJSU 14

3rd & 5Punt0 yds

Alex Weir punt for 56 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 1 yd to the TOL 35

2nd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -0.85

Dequan Finn pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the TOL 31

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.22

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 16 yds to the TOL 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Kairee Robinson run for 15 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the TOL 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.12

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 17 yds to the SJSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.98

Dequan Finn sacked by Soane Toia and Tre Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the TOL 47

2nd & 20Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.20

Willie Shaw III run for 11 yds to the SJSU 42

3rd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the SJSU 34

4th & 1Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.78

Dequan Finn run for 16 yds to the SJSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.94

Dequan Finn run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 5 yds to the SJSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Alex Weir punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 30

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Willie Shaw III run for 14 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the TOL 47

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Toledo Penalty, False Start (Nick Rosi) to the TOL 42

2nd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the TOL 46

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Toledo Penalty, False Start (Eric Holley III) to the TOL 41

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 44 yds, downed at the SJSU 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.22

Chevan Cordeiro run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 14

3rd & 11Interception Return Touchdown+25 ydsPPA -6.72

Chris McDonald 25 Yd Interception Return (Luke Pawlak Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 3 yds to the SJSU 30

3rd & 5Penalty0 yds

CORDEIRO, Chevan pass short to the right incomplete intended for NASH, Nick broken up by MCDONALD JR., Chris at the SJS34. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference on MCDONALD JR., Chris declined TOL Personal Foul on HOLT, Deshawn enforced 15 yards from the SJS30 to the SJS45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the right incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the TOL40. PENALTY TOL Holding on MCDONALD JR., Chris enforced 10 yards from the SJS45 to the TOL45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.32

Chevan Cordeiro sacked by D'Andre Ragin for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSU 49

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Alex Weir punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 9

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 12

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the TOL 17

3rd & 2Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.39

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +3.60

Peny Boone run for 37 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the SJSU 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 3 yds to the SJSU 25

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+43 yds

Luke Pawlak 43 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

San José State Penalty, False Start (Fernando Carmona Jr.) to the SJSU 20

2nd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Quali Conley run for 5 yds to the SJSU 25

3rd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.26

Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Judge Culpepper for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSU 15

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Alex Weir punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaac Jernagin for 2 yds to the TOL 43

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 7 yds to the TOL 36

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.44

Chevan Cordeiro run for no gain to the TOL 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 38

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the TOL 41

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the SJSU 12

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.32

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 8 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSU 21

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 7 yds to the SJSU 28

3rd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.31

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 7 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.64

Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 18 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.44

Chevan Cordeiro sacked by D'Andre Ragin and Jeremiah Peters for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSU 45

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Alex Weir punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 17

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.84

Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 33

2nd & 7Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.57

Peny Boone run for 22 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at SJS49 (team loss of 4).

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL48 (team loss of 3).

3rd & 17Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

San José State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
20%
25 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
75%
4 plays
38%
13 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
26%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
50%
12 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play