Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 9, 2023Week 2

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 16.2

Home Win Probability

Toledo 82%

Market (DraftKings)

Toledo -38

Edge: Texas Southern +38 (21.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 9, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Texas Southern
03003
ToledoToledo
222871471

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284256708-015-029-343-350-357-364-371-3
ToledoTexas Southern

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSTOLTSTOLTSTOLTSTOLTSTOLTSTOLTSTOLTSTOLTSTOLTSTOLTSTOLTSPUNT3-5ydTD957ydPUNT615ydTD765ydPUNT620ydTD137ydTO10ydTD310ydFG1259ydTD472ydPUNT3-3ydTD542ydTO851ydTD663ydEND28ydTD1064ydPUNT35ydPUNT528ydPUNT711ydTD1159ydPUNT3-2ydTD1385ydEND862yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas Southern and Toledo
StatisticTexas SouthernToledo
Passing9-2127-32
Pass Yards97371
Rush Yards141178
Total Yards238549
Turnovers20
3rd Down4-1210-12
Penalties11-1084-43
Possession28:0331:57

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas Southern
passing
Jace Wilson
8/20, 92 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Jacorey Howard
11 CAR, 43 YDS
receiving
Derrick Morton
1 REC, 31 YDS
defense
Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
16/17, 232 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Peny Boone
6 CAR, 39 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
CC Ezirim
3 REC, 79 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jacorey Howard run for no gain to the TXSO 25

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Texas Southern Penalty, False Start (Aidan Hemphill) to the TXSO 20

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Patrick Hellen punt for 37 yds, downed at the TOL 43

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the TOL 46

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 1 yd to the TOL 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.76

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 17 yds to the TXSO 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.33

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds to the TXSO 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the TXSO 18

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the TXSO 15

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the TXSO 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the TXSO 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Peny Boone run for 1 yd for a TD (A. Torres Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Jacorey Howard run for 2 yds to the TXSO 19

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Jace Wilson run for 8 yds to the TXSO 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Jace Wilson pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 3 yds to the TXSO 30

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.62

Jace Wilson run for no gain to the TXSO 30

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Jacorey Howard run for 2 yds to the TXSO 32

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Patrick Hellen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the TOL 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd to the TOL 39

3rd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.68

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 13 yds to the TXSO 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Texas Southern Penalty, Offsides (Elinus Noel III) to the TXSO 43

1st & 5Penalty+21 yds

Texas Southern Penalty, Personal Foul (Calvin Henderson) to the TXSO 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-9 ydsPPA -0.98

Dequan Finn run for a loss of 9 yards to the TXSO 20 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by TOL Dequan Finn

2nd & 19Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.57

Dequan Finn pass complete to Justin Stephens for 19 yds to the TXSO 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Peny Boone run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

LaDarius Owens run for 11 yds to the TXSO 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Jace Wilson pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 9 yds to the TXSO 45

2nd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.00

Jace Wilson pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 6 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.56

Jace Wilson sacked by Cavon Butler and Martez Poynter for a loss of 2 yards to the TXSO 49

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.53

Jace Wilson pass complete to AJ Bennett for 11 yds to the TOL 40

3rd & 1Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper WILSON, Jace rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the TOL31 (GANT, Dallas). PENALTY TSU Holding on HEMPHILL, Aiden enforced 10 yards from the TOL40 to the TSU50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 11Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.03

Jace Wilson sacked by Judge Culpepper for a loss of 5 yards to the TXSO 45

4th & 16Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Doran Ray Jr., recovered by TSU Jacorey Howard at the TOL 48, return for 0 yds. PENALTY TSU Personal Foul on Jacorey Howard, enforced 15 yds from the end of the play at the TOL 48 to the TSU 37.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.05

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 37 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.92

Jace Wilson pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

QB Keeper GLEASON, Tucker rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the TSU6 (PIPPENS, Viramontes;PORTER, DeMichael). PENALTY Before the snap, TSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the TSU10 to the TSU5. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Jerjuan Newton run for 2 yds to the TXSO 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jacorey Howard run for 3 yds to the TXSO 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.17

Jace Wilson pass complete to Quay Davis for 23 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Jacorey Howard run for 7 yds to the TOL 42

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.05

Jace Wilson run for 3 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Jacorey Howard run for 3 yds to the TOL 36

3rd & 7Penalty+11 yds

Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeremiah Peters) to the TOL 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

WILSON, Jace pass to the right incomplete intended for OWENS, LaDarius thrown to the TOL3. PENALTY TSU Holding on BROWN, III, Thomas enforced 10 yards from the TOL12 to the TOL22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Jace Wilson run for 6 yds to the TOL 16

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 14Field Goal Good+34 yds

Curtis Falkenburg 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 33

2nd & 5Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.46

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 25 yds to the TXSO 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.72

Dequan Finn pass complete to CC Ezirim for 25 yds to the TXSO 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Peny Boone run for 17 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

Jace Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXSO 9

2nd & 11Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.20

Jace Wilson sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the TXSO 2

3rd & 18Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Jordan Davis pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 5 yds to the TXSO 7

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Patrick Hellen punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the TXSO 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TXSO 27

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Dequan Finn pass complete to Cooper Rusk for 6 yds to the TXSO 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 5 yds to the TXSO 16

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.56

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 16 yds for a TD Texas Southern Penalty, Roughing the Passer on WILLIAMS, Jacob of (Jacob Williams) to the TXSO 0 (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Jace Wilson run for 9 yds to the TXSO 21

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.23

LaDarius Owens run for 4 yds to the TXSO 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.63

LaDarius Owens run for 11 yds to the TXSO 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

LaDarius Owens run for 2 yds to the TXSO 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.95

Jace Wilson pass complete to Derek Morton for 31 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

LaDarius Owens run for 2 yds to the TOL 29

2nd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.33

Jace Wilson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TOL 37, fumble on the sack (forced by Judge Culpepper), recovered by TOL Judge Culpepper at the TOL 37

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the TOL 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 5 yds to the TOL 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.93

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 6 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the TXSO 44

2nd & 3Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +1.85

Dequan Finn pass complete to CC Ezirim for 41 yds to the TXSO 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Dequan Finn pass complete to Dalton Andrews for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jacorey Howard run for 4 yds to the TXSO 29

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jacorey Howard run for 4 yds to the TXSO 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Cooper Rusk for 4 yds to the TOL 40

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.15

Connor Walendzak run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 39

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.62

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Cooper Rusk for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Toledo Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the TOL 45

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Connor Walendzak run for 7 yds to the TXSO 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.46

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 12 yds to the TXSO 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.36

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Don Munnerlyn for 14 yds to the TXSO 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Willie Shaw III run for 6 yds to the TXSO 16

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.06

Willie Shaw III run for 5 yds to the TXSO 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the TXSO 10

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.75

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Larry Stephens for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

LaDarius Owens run for 2 yds to the TXSO 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jace Wilson pass complete to AJ Bennett for 3 yds to the TXSO 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Patrick Hellen punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the TOL 27

1st & 10Rush+63 ydsPPA +3.42

Willie Shaw III run for 73 yds Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Don Munnerlyn) to the TOL 21

1st & 16Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the TOL 25

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

GLEASON, Tucker pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to EZIRIM, CC caught at the TOL38 and advanced to the TOL38 (HENDERSON, Calvin). PENALTY TSU Personal Foul on COOK, Quinton enforced 15 yards from the TOL38 to the TSU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the TXSO 42

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.78

Connor Walendzak run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXSO 45

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 38 yds, downed at the TXSO 7

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.34

Jacorey Howard run for 10 yds to the TXSO 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jacorey Howard run for no gain to the TXSO 17

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.34

Jacorey Howard run for 8 yds to the TXSO 25

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.98

LaDarius Owens run for 5 yds to the TXSO 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

LaDarius Owens run for no gain to the TXSO 30

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.37

Jace Wilson sacked by Jeremiah Peters for a loss of 12 yards to the TXSO 18

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Patrick Hellen punt for 41 yds, downed at the TOL 41

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Willie Shaw III run for 6 yds to the TOL 47

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.65

Willie Shaw III run for 6 yds to the TXSO 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the TXSO 45

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.51

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jediyah Willoughby for 16 yds to the TXSO 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the TXSO 27

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the TXSO 21

3rd & 2Penalty+2 yds

Texas Southern Penalty, Face mask (2 yards) (Elinus Noel III) to the TXSO 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Mike Drennen II run for 1 yd to the TXSO 10

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +3.03

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Cooper Rusk for 10 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.44

Da'Veon Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXSO 32

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Jace Wilson pass complete to Tavaris Achane for 6 yds to the TXSO 38

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jace Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

Texas Southern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXSO 33

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Patrick Hellen punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Julian Allen at the TOL 15

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Mike Drennen II run for 3 yds to the TOL 18

2nd & 7Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.04

John Alan Richter pass complete to Cooper Rusk for 33 yds to the TXSO 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Mike Drennen II run for 2 yds to the TXSO 47

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.24

Mike Drennen II run for 8 yds to the TXSO 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Bryce McMahon run for 1 yd to the TXSO 38

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

John Alan Richter pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.95

John Alan Richter pass complete to Mike Drennen II for 9 yds to the TXSO 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Mike Drennen II run for 4 yds to the TXSO 25

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Bryce McMahon run for 7 yds to the TXSO 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Bryce McMahon run for 1 yd to the TXSO 17

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Mike Drennen II run for 3 yds to the TXSO 14

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.79

John Alan Richter pass complete to Mike Drennen II for 7 yds to the TXSO 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Mike Drennen II run for 7 yds for a TD (Liam Quigley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Jordan Davis run for 12 yds to the TXSO 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Da'Veon Ford run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Da'Veon Ford run for 6 yds to the TOL 44

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.36

Da'Veon Ford run for 5 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Da'Veon Ford run for 6 yds to the TOL 33

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.22

Jordan Davis run for 10 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Da'Veon Ford run for 6 yds to the TOL 17

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jordan Davis run for 4 yds to the TOL 13 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Texas Southern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
27%
11 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
4th

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
55%
31 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
56%
9 plays
50%
12 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
2 plays
100%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
4th