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← Back to GamesNov 11, 2023Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

South Alabama by 12.2

Home Win Probability

South Alabama 81%

Market (Bovada)

South Alabama -15

Edge: Arkansas State +15 (2.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 11, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Arkansas StateArkansas State
303814
South AlabamaSouth Alabama
777021

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-37-314-321-621-14
South AlabamaArkansas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SAASSAASSAASSAASSAASSAASASSAASSAASSAASSAASSAASSAPUNT36ydFG1053ydTD475ydPUNT425ydPUNT511ydPUNT48ydPUNT48ydPUNT734ydPUNT35ydMISS618ydTD1478ydEND1-1ydFG649ydTD853ydPUNT38ydDOWNS49ydTO512ydPUNT38ydDOWNS522ydPUNT3-3ydDOWNS944ydTO760ydTD781ydEND724yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas State and South Alabama
StatisticArkansas StateSouth Alabama
Passing15-2819-25
Pass Yards186145
Rush Yards116199
Total Yards302344
Turnovers11
3rd Down2-135-15
Penalties3-158-71
Possession27:0832:52

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas State
passing
Jaylen Raynor
15/28, 186 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Zak Wallace
11 CAR, 56 YDS
receiving
Jeff Foreman
3 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Trevian Thomas
0.5 TFL, 1 PD
South Alabama
passing
Carter Bradley
19/25, 145 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
La'Damian Webb
28 CAR, 163 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Caullin Lacy
7 REC, 50 YDS
defense
Quentin Wilfawn
2 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the USA 40

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 42

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 41

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jack Martin punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARST 28

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 35

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.26

Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass complete short left to Jackson,Courtney for 8 yards to the ASU46 (Voisin,Jaden) PENALTY USA Holding (Fletcher,Ricky) 10 yards from ASU38 to ASU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.87

Ja'Quez Cross run for 13 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the USA 33

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the USA 31

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.70

Ja'Quez Cross run for 11 yds to the USA 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan Ealy

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the USA 19

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman

4th & 9Field Goal Good+36 yds

Dominic Zvada 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the USA 28

2nd & 7Rush+60 ydsPPA +3.84

La'Damian Webb run for 60 yds to the ARST 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ARST 13

2nd & 11Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.89

La'Damian Webb run for 13 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Zak Wallace run for 26 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the USA 48

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the USA 43

3rd & 4Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.46

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Quentin Wilfawn for a loss of 10 yards to the ARST 47

4th & 14Punt+14 yds

William Przystup punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 22 , Caullin Lacy returns for 14 yds to the USA 39 South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Harris) to the USA 22

4th & 14Punt+14 yds

William Przystup punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 4 , Caullin Lacy returns for 14 yds to the USA 39 South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Harris) to the USA 4

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the USA 11

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.52

Carter Bradley sacked by Nate Martey for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 12

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 15

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon Ivory

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jack Martin punt for 45 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the ARST 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.71

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Cedric Hawkins for 21 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.88

Cedric Hawkins run for no gain to the USA 41

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -2.20

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Trey Kiser for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 47 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST , return for 0 yards

3rd & 16Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.93

Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 46

4th & 23Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 30

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Braylon McReynolds run for 10 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 4 yds to the USA 44

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal Pritchett

3rd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.14

Carter Bradley sacked by Nate Martey for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 38

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jack Martin punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARST 21

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.30

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 10 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 40

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 48

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the USA 45

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan Ealy

4th & 4Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 6

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.13

La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 8

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.13

La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 8

4th & 5Punt+4 yds

Jack Martin punt for 36 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 4 yds to the USA 40

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the USA 31

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.37

Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 4 yds to the USA 22

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USA 19

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.35

Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the USA 22

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+39 yds

Dominic Zvada 39 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin Lacy

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.60

La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the USA 31

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.14

La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the USA 39

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Carter Bradley run for 2 yds to the USA 41

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon Ivory

4th & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+19 ydsPPA +3.60

Todd Justice run for 19 yds to the ARST 40 Todd Justice fumbled, recovered by USA Travis Drosos for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the ARST 35

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the ARST 32

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.56

La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.56

Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for no gain to the ARST 30

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the ARST 29

3rd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.33

Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 9 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 20 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Jacob Meeks kickoff for 47 yds , Reagan Ealy return for 14 yds to the ARST 32

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Kneel down by Arkansas St. at ASU31 for loss of 1 yard.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 17 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.62

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 24 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the USA 26

2nd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 1 yd to the USA 25

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.24

Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the USA 26

4th & 2Field Goal Good+44 yds

Dominic Zvada 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+40 yds

Clune Van Andel kickoff for 58 yds , Caullin Lacy return for 40 yds to the USA 47

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the ARST 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 5 yds to the ARST 44

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin Lacy

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.99

La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the ARST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the ARST 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the ARST 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY USA False Start (Buys,Reed) 5 yards from ASU34 to ASU39. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass complete short middle to Ivory,Javon for 4 yards to the ASU35 (Mackey,Javante) PENALTY ASU Offside (Geathers,Thurman) 5 yards from ASU39 to ASU34. NO PLAY.

3rd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.68

Braylon McReynolds run for 10 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 24 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Jacob Meeks kickoff for 59 yds , Ja'Quez Cross return for 16 yds to the ARST 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 21

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.51

Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the ARST 30

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Adam Jones

4th & 2Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 31

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the USA 32

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 2 yds to the USA 30

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.51

Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 10 yds to the USA 40

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Marco Lee Jr. run for no gain to the USA 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 9 yds to the USA 31

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.37

Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jamie Sheriff for 0 yards to the USA 26

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the USA 28

3rd & 12Interception0 ydsPPA -2.82

Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 23

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the USA 25

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 6 yds to the USA 31

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jack Martin punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 39

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Ja'Quez Cross

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass incomplete deep left to Foreman,Jeff PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Fletcher,Ricky) 15 yards from ASU39 to USA46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the USA 43

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the USA 38

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -2.10

Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the USA 39

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal Pritchett

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY USA False Start (Robinson,James) 5 yards from USA39 to USA34. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Penalty0 yds

South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined

3rd & 20Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.06

Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 7 yds to the USA 36

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jack Martin punt for 29 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Miller McCrumby

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.93

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 14 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USA 49

2nd & 8Penalty+8 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass incomplete short right to McCrumby,Miller, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Jordan,Jalen) 8 yards from USA49 to USA41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USA 38

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Raynor,Jaylen pass incomplete deep right to Foreman,Jeff PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Fletcher,Ricky) 15 yards from USA38 to USA23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USA 21

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Courtney Jackson

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Miller McCrumby

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.92

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan Ealy

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 19

2nd & 12Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.79

Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 26 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 46

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USA 42

2nd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the USA 48

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.57

Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 11 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+22 ydsPPA -3.76

La'Damian Webb run for 22 yds to the ARST 19 La'Damian Webb fumbled, recovered by ARST Eddie Smith No Huddle-Shotgun Webb,La'Damian rush middle for 22 yards gain to the ASU19 fumbled by Webb,La'Damian at ASU21 forced by Thomas,Trevian recovered by ASU Smith,Eddie at ASU19 Smith,Eddie return 0 yards to the ASU19 (Pritchett,Jamaal).

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.83

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 12 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 6 yds to the ARST 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.54

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 15 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 3 yds to the USA 45

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Courtney Jackson

3rd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 1 yd to the USA 46

4th & 8Passing Touchdown+46 ydsPPA +6.30

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 46 yds for a TD (J. Raynor Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USA 34

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 33

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Carter Bradley run for 5 yds to the USA 38

4th & 2Penalty+5 yds

Martin,Jack punt 19 yards to the ASU43 PENALTY ASU Running Into The Kicker 5 yards from USA38 to USA43. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 46

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.48

La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

C. Bradley takes a knee

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.25

C. Bradley takes a knee

Situational Analysis

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
29 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
22%
9 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays

South Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
25 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
33%
6 plays
38%
8 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play