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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2023Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas State by 24

Home Win Probability

Texas State 93%

Market (Bovada)

Texas State -17

Edge: Texas State -17 (7.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NevadaNevada
1070724
Texas StateTexas State
00211435

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-30-100-177-1721-1728-1735-24
Texas StateNevada

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NEVTSTSNEVTSNEVTSNEVTSTSNEVTSNEVTSNEVTSNEVTSNEVTSNEVTSFG1363ydTD1072ydPUNT36ydTD1478ydDOWNS756ydPUNT31ydDOWNS951ydTO1047ydTO223ydTD1075ydPUNT421ydTO640ydPUNT32ydTD283ydTO333ydTD558ydTO849ydTD775ydDOWNS49ydTD334ydTD975ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Nevada and Texas State
StatisticNevadaTexas State
Passing22-3326-32
Pass Yards194298
Rush Yards159276
Total Yards353574
Turnovers33
3rd Down8-156-11
Penalties3-359-79
Possession31:2528:35

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Nevada
passing
Brendon Lewis
21/32, 151 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Brendon Lewis
12 CAR, 89 YDS
receiving
Isaiah Essissima
2 REC, 67 YDS
defense
Texas State
passing
TJ Finley
25/31, 295 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Ismail Mahdi
21 CAR, 216 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Kole Wilson
4 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Brendon Lewis sacked by Tavian Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 24

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the NEV 33

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.44

Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to John Jackson III

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Ashton Hayes run for no gain to the NEV 39

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.93

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Ashton Hayes run for 11 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 5 yds to the TXST 33

2nd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.41

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 14 yds to the TXST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Ashton Hayes run for 7 yds to the TXST 12

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Ashton Hayes run for no gain to the TXST 12

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jamaal Bell

4th & 3Field Goal Good+30 yds

Brandon Talton 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Matthew Killam kickoff for 60 yds , Kole Wilson return for 10 yds to the TXST 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.61

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the TXST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 25

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.61

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds to the TXST 34

3rd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.47

Jahmyl Jeter run for 17 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.92

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

TJ Finley pass complete to Drew Donley for 5 yds to the NEV 26

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Drew Donley

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.75

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the NEV 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the NEV 13

2nd & 3Interception Return Touchdown+98 ydsPPA -11.70

KK Meier 98 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Talton Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Matthew Killam kickoff for 60 yds , Kole Wilson return for 16 yds to the TXST 21

1st & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Malik Hornsby pass complete to Drew Donley for 3 yds to the TXST 19

2nd & 21Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.15

TJ Finley pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 11 yds to the TXST 21

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TXST 27

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 51 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for no gain to the NEV 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Ashton Hayes run for 1 yd to the NEV 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 3 yds to the NEV 26

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brendon Lewis pass complete to for 4 yds fumbled, recovered by NEV

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Jamaal Bell run for 1 yd to the NEV 40

3rd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.30

Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 7 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Sean Dollars run for no gain to the NEV 47

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 9 yds to the TXST 44

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Sean Dollars run for no gain to the TXST 44

4th & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.37

Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the TXST 29

2nd & 4Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.85

Brendon Lewis pass complete to for 24 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the TXST 8

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the TXST 1

3rd & 1Fumble Return Touchdown0 ydsPPA -11.55

Zac Welch 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brandon Talton Kick)

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Ismail Mahdi run for 22 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.18

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the NEV 44

2nd & 6Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.49

Ismail Mahdi run for 21 yds to the NEV 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the NEV 27

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the NEV 20

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the NEV 19

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.69

TJ Finley run for no gain to the NEV 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 21

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 20

3rd & 9Penalty0 yds

Nevada Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Isaiah Essissima) declined

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 47 yds , Joey Hobert returns for no gain to the TXST 32

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tongiaki Mateialona) to the TXST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dion Washington) to the NEV 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Donerio Davenport run for 1 yd to the NEV 35

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 4 yds to the NEV 31

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.04

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 10 yds to the NEV 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Drew Donley

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

3rd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the NEV 17

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.39

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 16

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Dalevon Campbell

3rd & 11Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.03

Brendon Lewis run for 19 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST down

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the NEV 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.20

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 10 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to John Jackson III

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 5 yds to the TXST 36

3rd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -2.95

Brendon Lewis pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.51

TJ Finley run for 17 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -2.34

TJ Finley sacked by Ike Nnakenyi for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 40 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by NEV Eli'jah Winston , return for 0 yards

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 12 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.13

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 12 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.12

Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the NEV 42

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.29

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the NEV 36

2nd & 13Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

TJ Finley pass complete to Titus Lyons for 3 yds to the NEV 38

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the NEV 30

4th & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.56

TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 12 yds to the NEV 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 20Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the NEV 25

2nd & 17Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.65

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 25 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Matthew Velasco kickoff for 64 yds , Jamaal Bell return for 26 yds to the NEV 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cross Patton for 2 yds to the NEV 29

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the NEV 48

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Keleki Latu

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jamaal Bell

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Matt Freem punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the TXST 28

2nd & 2Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.66

Ismail Mahdi run for 21 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the NEV 46

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the NEV 42

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -1.85

Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the NEV 40 Jahmyl Jeter fumbled, recovered by NEV Drue Watts

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to John Jackson III

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 2 yds to the NEV 42

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Spencer Curtis

4th & 8Punt+3 yds

Matt Freem punt for 44 yds , Joey Hobert returns for 3 yds to the TXST 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the TXST 23

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+77 ydsPPA +6.27

TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 77 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Matthew Velasco kickoff for 55 yds , Jamaal Bell return for 15 yds to the NEV 25

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Sean Dollars run for 20 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+8 ydsPPA -2.83

Cross Patton run for 8 yds to the TXST 42 Cross Patton fumbled, recovered by NEV Chris Mills

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the TXST 48

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.24

Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 48

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.87

TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Drew Donley

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+46 ydsPPA +4.57

Ismail Mahdi run for 46 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Matthew Velasco kickoff for 62 yds , Jamaal Bell return for 23 yds to the NEV 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 3 yds to the NEV 29

2nd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.31

Brendon Lewis run for 19 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Sean Dollars run for 7 yds to the TXST 45

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.09

Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the TXST 39

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the TXST 40

3rd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.11

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 15 yds to the TXST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.45

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for no gain Dalevon Campbell fumbled, recovered by NEV Dan Foster

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 27

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 27

3rd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.96

Ismail Mahdi run for 10 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

TJ Finley run for 5 yds to the TXST 42

2nd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.93

TJ Finley sacked by Marcel Walker-Burgess for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 36

3rd & 11Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.86

TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 28 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.01

Ismail Mahdi run for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 6 yds to the NEV 31

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.60

Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the NEV 26

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NEV False Start (Madrigal,Andrew) 5 yards from NEV26 to NEV21. NO PLAY.

3rd & 14Fumble Recovery (Own)+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds Keleki Latu fumbled, recovered by NEV Keleki Latu

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.10

Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 34

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.37

Ismail Mahdi run for 18 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the NEV 13

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.67

Malik Hornsby run for 13 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for no gain to the NEV 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 8 yds to the NEV 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.34

Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 5 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the NEV 40

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to John Jackson III

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.72

Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +1.71

AJ Bianco pass complete to Isaiah Essissima for 43 yds to the TXST 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for no gain to the TXST 6

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

AJ Bianco run for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 48

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.24

T. Finley takes a knee

Situational Analysis

Nevada

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
35%
26 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
57%
7 plays
45%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
59%
27 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play