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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2023Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Southern Miss by 5.1

Home Win Probability

Arkansas State 34%

Market (Bovada)

Arkansas State +7

Edge: Arkansas State +7 (1.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 23, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Southern MissSouthern Miss
710101037
Arkansas StateArkansas State
146141044

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-714-717-1420-1727-1734-2434-2734-3437-3444-37
Arkansas StateSouthern Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SMASSMASSMASSMASSMASSMASSMASSMASSMASSMASSMASSMASSMASSMASTD1284ydTD778ydTO2-10ydTD38ydPUNT47ydFG47ydTD765ydFG43ydFG951ydPUNT818ydTO10ydTO633ydEND17ydTD160ydPUNT621ydTD689ydTD675ydPUNT3-1ydFG638ydPUNT6-4ydTD350ydPUNT930ydPUNT33ydFG851ydPUNT3-3ydTD264ydFG1046ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Southern Miss and Arkansas State
StatisticSouthern MissArkansas State
Passing20-3611-21
Pass Yards215233
Rush Yards234192
Total Yards449425
Turnovers21
3rd Down7-157-14
Penalties5-453-15
Possession30:2829:32

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Southern Miss
passing
Billy Wiles
20/36, 215 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Frank Gore Jr.
20 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jakarius Caston
4 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Arkansas State
passing
Jaylen Raynor
11/21, 233 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jaylen Raynor
17 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Courtney Jackson
3 REC, 94 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.80

Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 13 yds to the USM 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Billy Wiles run for 3 yds to the USM 32

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the USM 38

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

run for 3 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 44

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 47

3rd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.45

Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 16 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.31

Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 10 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.44

Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 31

3rd & 14Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.47

Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 24 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Penalty+5 yds

WILES, Billy pass up the middle incomplete intended for CASTON, Jakarius broken up by JOHNSON, Samy at the ASU0. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Samy enforced 5 yards to the ASU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Frank Gore Jr. 2 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.12

Ja'Quez Cross run for 14 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 38

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.87

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the USM 46

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.08

Ja'Quez Cross run for 13 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 33 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.77

Billy Wiles sacked by Tim Hardiman for a loss of 10 yards to the USM 6

2nd & 20Interception0 ydsPPA +0.35

Billy Wiles pass intercepted

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USM 6

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the USM 5

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Chandler Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 24

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.15

Antavious Willis run for 18 yds to the USM 42 Southern Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brandon Hayes) to the USM 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 1 yd to the USM 24

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 5 yds to the USM 29

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the USM 23

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the USM 19

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+36 yds

Dominic Zvada 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.40

Frank Gore Jr. run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the ARST 43

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

run for no gain to the ARST 43

3rd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.62

Rodrigues Clark run for 15 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the ARST 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for no gain to the ARST 28

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +3.98

Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the USM 36

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Connor Gibbs kickoff for 63 yds , return for no gain to the USM 39

4th & 7Field Goal Good+53 yds

Dominic Zvada 53 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.01

Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the ARST 38

3rd & 1Rush+29 ydsPPA +1.22

Frank Gore Jr. run for 29 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Billy Wiles run for 1 yd to the ARST 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Andrew Stein 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 32

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 35

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.74

Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the ARST 48

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.55

Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the USM 44

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.05

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Markel McLaurin and Josh Ratcliff for a loss of 10 yards to the ARST 46

4th & 17Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 54 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Billy Wiles pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the USM 47

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.62

Jaylen Raynor run for 16 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, Offsides (Jalil Clemons) to the USM 23

2nd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -4.31

Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the USM 27

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+60 ydsPPA +4.76

Courtney Jackson 60 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 6 yds to the USM 36

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.98

Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 8 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 1 yd to the USM 45

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Billy Wiles pass complete to Antavious Willis for 6 yds to the ARST 49

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.01

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 29 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.50

Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 38

2nd & 12Penalty+5 yds

Southern Miss Penalty, Delay Of Game (Hayes Maples) to the ARST 43

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.58

Jaylen Raynor run for 10 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 1 yd to the USM 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.11

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 38 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

run for 2 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Billy Wiles pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 5 yds to the USM 41

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+59 ydsPPA +5.04

Rodrigues Clark run for 59 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Zak Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 15

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 16

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 37

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.18

Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 35 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Billy Wiles run for 2 yds to the ARST 25

4th & 8Field Goal Good+42 yds

Andrew Stein 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.70

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 7 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.86

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jalil Clemons for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 29

2nd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Courtney Jackson run for 5 yds to the ARST 34

3rd & 12Sack-13 ydsPPA -0.41

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Josh Carr Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the ARST 21

4th & 25Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 29 yds

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +1.19

Frank Gore Jr. run for 28 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +3.05

Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 22 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.84

Jaylen Raynor sacked by Ja'Len Sims for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 17

2nd & 14Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 21

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.86

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 13 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 42

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.34

Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 42

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.27

Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 48

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 3 yds to the USM 49

4th & 3Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 11

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 13

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.09

Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 1 yd to the USM 14

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.68

Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 37 yds to the USM 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the USM 13

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USM 10

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.76

Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the USM 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 6

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USM 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

WILES, Billy pass deep to the left complete for 37 yards to MIMS, Tiaquelin caught at the ASU37 and advanced to the ASU38 (THOMAS, Trevian). PENALTY USM Holding on RAMSEY, Bryce enforced 10 yards from the USM25 to the USM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

3rd & 20Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.02

Billy Wiles pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 7 yds to the USM 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 38

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+62 ydsPPA +5.79

Jaylen Raynor run for 62 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Clune Van Andel kickoff for 36 yds , Josh Carr Jr. return for no gain to the USM 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 8 yds to the USM 42

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Billy Wiles run for 6 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Billy Wiles run for 5 yds to the ARST 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 3 yds to the ARST 44

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.24

Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Billy Wiles run for 5 yds to the ARST 36

2nd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.53

Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 16 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Billy Wiles pass incomplete

2nd & 10Field Goal Good+37 yds

Andrew Stein 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

[NHSG] Kneel down by ASU at USM47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Southern Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
39%
28 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
53%
15 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
36%
28 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
25%
8 plays
56%
9 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th