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← Back to GamesOct 21, 2023Week 8
Air ForceAir Force
17
-Final
6
NavyNavy

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 17.6

Home Win Probability

Navy 14%

Market (Bovada)

Navy +10.5

Edge: Air Force -10.5 (7.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 21, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
073717
NavyNavy
00066

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40140-70-106-17
NavyAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVNAVAFMISS950ydPUNT31ydPUNT4-9ydPUNT3-6ydTO226ydPUNT36ydTD294ydPUNT612ydPUNT426ydPUNT37ydPUNT32ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT37ydEND3-3ydPUNT34ydPUNT39ydPUNT34ydFG935ydPUNT3-17ydMISS716ydPUNT812ydPUNT518ydTO513ydPUNT37ydTD30ydTD1578ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Navy
StatisticAir ForceNavy
Passing4-515-29
Pass Yards151102
Rush Yards13722
Total Yards288124
Turnovers12
3rd Down1-133-17
Penalties5-304-50
Possession31:4428:16

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Zachary Larrier
4/5, 151 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Emmanuel Michel
22 CAR, 69 YDS
receiving
Dane Kinamon
1 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
13/23, 96 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Alex Tecza
12 CAR, 24 YDS
receiving
Alex Tecza
4 REC, 27 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.26

Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 34 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.17

Zac Larrier run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 30

3rd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the NAVY 25

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 24

3rd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Air Force Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 21

1st & 17Penalty-5 yds

Air Force Penalty, False Start (Ethan Jackman) to the AFA 16

1st & 22Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 20

2nd & 18Penalty-5 yds

Air Force Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 15

2nd & 23Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.06

Zac Larrier run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 13

3rd & 25Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.01

Owen Burk run for 6 yds to the AFA 19

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.01

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 37

2nd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Braxton Woodson run for no gain to the NAVY 37

3rd & 15Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.25

Braxton Woodson sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 36

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 48 yds , returns for no gain to the AFA 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+22 ydsPPA -1.33

Aiden Calvert run for 22 yds to the NAVY 42 Aiden Calvert fumbled, recovered by NAVY Dashaun Peele

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 45

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 47

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 48

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds, downed at the AFA 6

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the AFA 6

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+94 ydsPPA +7.19

Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 94 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Brandon Chatman run for 6 yds to the NAVY 20

2nd & 4Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.74

Braxton Woodson sacked by Caden Blum and Payton Zdroik for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 17

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.08

Alex Tecza run for 8 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 21 Braxton Woodson fumbled, recovered by NAVY Braxton Woodson

2nd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Tyler Bradley for 5 yds to the NAVY 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.89

Zac Larrier pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 22 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Air Force Penalty, False Start (Brandon Engel) to the NAVY 48

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Zac Larrier run for no gain to the NAVY 48

2nd & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jensen Jones run for 4 yds to the NAVY 44

3rd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the NAVY 39

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 11

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 12

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 17

3rd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 1 yd to the NAVY 18

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 24 yds, downed at the NAVY 42

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the NAVY 41

2nd & 9Sack0 ydsPPA -1.04

Zac Larrier sacked by Colin Ramos for 0 yards to the NAVY 41

3rd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the NAVY 40

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 7

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 8

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.20

Amin Hassan run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 6

3rd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.05

Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 5

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the NAVY 45

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the NAVY 41

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the NAVY 38

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the NAVY 38

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 16

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 18

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (Jayden Umbarger) to the NAVY 13

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.10

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 14

3rd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.06

[NH] Kneel down by NAV at NAV13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 12End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 21

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 22

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 35

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 41

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 43

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 44

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 10

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 13

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 42

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

LARRIER, Zac pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for ROZNOS, Jared thrown to the NAV0. PENALTY NAV Pass Interference on LANE, Rayuan enforced 15 yards to the NAV36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the NAVY 33

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the NAVY 28

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the NAVY 27

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Zac Larrier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 26 Zac Larrier fumbled, recovered by AFA Zac Larrier

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Zac Larrier pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the NAVY 23

4th & 8Field Goal Good+40 yds

Matthew Dapore 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.90

Braxton Woodson sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 10 yards to the NAVY 9

2nd & 20Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.06

Braxton Woodson sacked by Jayden Thiergood and Payton Zdroik for a loss of 6 yards to the NAVY 3

3rd & 26Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.01

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 2

4th & 27Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 32 yds, downed at the NAVY 34

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the NAVY 27

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 25

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.25

Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 21

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 19

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Zac Larrier pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 1 yd to the NAVY 18

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Matthew Dapore 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the NAVY 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Camari Williams for 9 yds to the NAVY 29

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.70

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 37

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the NAVY 39

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

QB Keeper LAVATAI, Tai rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the NAV40 (ZDROIK, Payton). PENALTY AFA Offsides on ZDROIK, Payton enforced 5 yards from the NAV39 to the NAV44 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 46

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 47

3rd & 7Penalty-15 yds

LAVATAI, Tai pass to the right complete for 14 yards to KENT, Nathan caught at the AFA39 and advanced to the AFA39 (YOUNGBLOOD, Johnathan). PENALTY NAV Personal Foul on TECZA, Alex enforced 15 yards from the NAV47 to the NAV32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 68 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.40

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 33

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 38

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 38 yds, downed at the NAVY 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 4 yds to the NAVY 28

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.84

run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 31 fumbled, recovered by NAVY Tai Lavatai

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

4th & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.96

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 6 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.95

Tai Lavatai pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NAVY 41

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the NAVY 38

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 27 yds, downed at the NAVY 11

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 10Interception Return Touchdown+18 ydsPPA -6.71

Alec Mock 18 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Dapore Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 6 yds to the NAVY 28

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.54

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 5 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Tyler Bradley for 9 yds to the NAVY 42

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.01

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Tyler Bradley for 6 yds to the NAVY 49

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.83

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 10 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 7 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.88

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 6 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 5 yds to the AFA 23

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.17

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Daba Fofana for 13 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.80

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Kneel down by AFA at AFA48 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Kneel down by AFA at AFA47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
18 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
17%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
22%
23 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
60%
5 plays
33%
12 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
6 plays
4th
100%
2 plays