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← Back to GamesOct 7, 2023Week 6
North TexasNorth Texas
24
-Final
27
NavyNavy
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Navy by 0.3

Home Win Probability

Navy 52%

Market (Bovada)

Navy -6.5

Edge: North Texas +6.5 (6.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North TexasNorth Texas
3701424
NavyNavy
0137727

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-37-320-1020-1727-24
NavyNorth Texas

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NTNAVNTNAVNTNAVNTNAVNTNAVNTNAVNAVNTNAVNTNAVNTNAVNTNAVNTNAVDOWNS1272ydPUNT537ydFG968ydPUNT610ydPUNT36ydTD1080ydTO534ydPUNT421ydTD280ydTD875ydPUNT416ydEND1-1ydTD1275ydMISS840ydPUNT414ydTD1493ydPUNT820ydTO21ydTD121ydTD873ydPUNT726ydDOWNS40ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Texas and Navy
StatisticNorth TexasNavy
Passing22-334-10
Pass Yards26775
Rush Yards206331
Total Yards473406
Turnovers20
3rd Down2-114-12
Penalties0-07-41
Possession26:0533:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Texas
passing
Chandler Rogers
22/32, 267 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Ayo Adeyi
14 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jay Maclin
6 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
4/8, 75 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Alex Tecza
17 CAR, 137 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Brandon Chatman
1 REC, 38 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.84

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Christian Lee for 34 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the NAVY 37

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NAVY 35

3rd & 4Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.26

Ayo Adeyi run for 18 yds to the NAVY 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 7 yds to the NAVY 10

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the NAVY 10

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NAVY 8

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.72

Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NAVY 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Chandler Rogers run for 6 yds to the NAVY 1

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 2

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Isaiah Johnson run for no gain to the NAVY 2

4th & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -4.15

Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 3

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (Trey Cummings) to the NAVY 2

1st & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 3

2nd & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +1.70

Blake Horvath run for 29 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 40

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 53 yds, downed at the UNT 7

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.34

Isaiah Johnson run for 10 yds to the UNT 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.68

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 11 yds to the UNT 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNT 31

2nd & 7Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.95

Isaiah Johnson run for 28 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.59

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 19 yds to the NAVY 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NAVY 21

3rd & 9Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.54

Chandler Rogers sacked by Rayuan Lane III and Landon Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 25

4th & 13Field Goal Good+42 yds

Noah Rauschenberg 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 33

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.44

Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (Brent Self) to the NAVY 34

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 38

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 41

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 36

3rd & 13Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.28

Blake Horvath sacked by Fatafehi Vailea and Carson Kropp for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 35

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 6 yds to the UNT 30

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the UNT 30

3rd & 4Sack0 ydsPPA -0.42

Chandler Rogers sacked by Clay Cromwell for 0 yards to the UNT 30

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Sawyer Evans punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the NAVY 27

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.25

Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 35

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.57

Daba Fofana run for 11 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 48

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Blake Horvath run for 7 yds to the UNT 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Blake Horvath run for no gain to the UNT 45

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.02

Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the UNT 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brandon Chatman run for 5 yds to the UNT 39

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.32

Alex Tecza run for 39 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Ayo Adeyi run for 19 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.70

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 15 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NAVY 33

2nd & 5Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.51

Chandler Rogers sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NAVY 41

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.47

Daba Fofana run for 19 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the UNT 39

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the UNT 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 5 yds to the UNT 25

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.30

Chandler Rogers run for 75 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Blake Horvath run for 13 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 45

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.77

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 47

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.32

Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the UNT 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.67

Tai Lavatai run for 20 yds to the UNT 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Nathan Kent for 26 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Ayo Adeyi run for 11 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 39

3rd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 2 yds to the UNT 41

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Sawyer Evans punt for 55 yds, downed at the NAVY 4

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.27

[SG] Kneel down by NAV at NAV3 (team loss of 1).

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Xavier Arline for 6 yds to the NAVY 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Brandon Chatman run for 8 yds to the NAVY 44

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.10

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.88

Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the UNT 44

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the UNT 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.78

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 38 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the UNT 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Stone Earle run for 7 yds to the UNT 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.38

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 15 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the NAVY 47

2nd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.82

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 14 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 7 yds to the NAVY 26

2nd & 3Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.29

Chandler Rogers sacked by Clay Cromwell for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 35

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Noah Rauschenberg 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Alex Tecza run for 11 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 49

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 6 yds to the UNT 13

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 14

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 8 yds to the UNT 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.61

Chandler Rogers sacked by Will Harbour for 0 yards to the UNT 22

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 23

3rd & 9Penalty+10 yds

ROGERS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MACLIN, Ja'Mori thrown to the UNT49. PENALTY NAV Holding on DUHART, Andrew enforced 10 yards from the UNT23 to the UNT33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the UNT 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 5 yds to the UNT 39

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.62

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 7 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.83

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 11 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.70

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 25 yds to the NAVY 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Stone Earle pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.94

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 34

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.44

Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Alex Tecza run for 8 yds to the NAVY 49

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Amin Hassan for 5 yds to the UNT 45

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

HALL, Anton rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the UNT44 (BROWN, Jordan;WILSON, Logan). PENALTY NAV Holding on UMBARGER, Jayden enforced 10 yards from the UNT45 to the NAV45 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 55 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.53

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 19 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-18 ydsPPA -2.48

Chandler Rogers sacked for a loss of 18 yards to the UNT 21

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Alex Tecza run for 21 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.26

Chandler Rogers sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 20

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.05

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the UNT 27

4th & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.32

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 11 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.43

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 15 yds to the NAVY 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +4.66

Ayo Adeyi run for 47 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 41

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the UNT 47

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the UNT 41

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.85

Daba Fofana run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 44

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds for a touchback

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNT 49

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.89

Chandler Rogers sacked by Andrew Duhart for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 13

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.03

Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the UNT 20

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.32

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

[NH] Kneel down by NAV at UNT22 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

[NH] Kneel down by NAV at UNT23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

North Texas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
55%
31 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
70%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
58%
26 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
57%
7 plays
50%
8 plays
67%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
43%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays