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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2023Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Navy by 7.3

Home Win Probability

Navy 70%

Market (Bovada)

Navy -4

Edge: Navy -4 (3.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South FloridaSouth Florida
71671444
NavyNavy
1463730

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-714-1414-2120-2123-2323-3730-44
NavySouth Florida

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NAVNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFPUNT36ydTD418ydDOWNS49ydTD430ydTD870ydPUNT38ydPUNT620ydPUNT32ydTD1067ydPUNT521ydTD288ydDOWNS646ydTO3-2ydTD522ydPUNT68ydEND26ydPUNT3-8ydFG612ydPUNT523ydPUNT39ydTD867ydTD847ydPUNT31ydTO113ydMISS519ydTD974ydTD168ydEND1356yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Florida and Navy
StatisticSouth FloridaNavy
Passing26-345-11
Pass Yards33890
Rush Yards97240
Total Yards435330
Turnovers31
3rd Down6-163-14
Penalties1-128-70
Possession28:5231:08

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Florida
passing
Byrum Brown
26/34, 338 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
K'Wan Powell
11 CAR, 48 YDS
receiving
Sean Atkins
4 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Navy
passing
Blake Horvath
4/6, 83 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Alex Tecza
13 CAR, 82 YDS
receiving
Eli Heidenreich
1 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Amin Hassan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.12

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Camari Williams for 7 yds to the NAVY 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the USF 18

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the USF 17

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the USF 10

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.70

Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the USF 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 3 yds to the USF 24

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 25

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 5 yds to the USF 30

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Byrum Brown run for no gain to the USF 30

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Brandon Chatman run for 6 yds to the USF 24

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Alex Tecza run for no gain to the USF 24

3rd & 4Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.49

Daba Fofana run for 20 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the USF 35

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 38

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.40

Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 4 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 9 yds to the NAVY 49

2nd & 1Penalty+15 yds

QB Keeper BROWN, Byrum rush to the left for no gain to the NAV49, End of Play. PENALTY NAV Personal Foul on RAMOS, Colin enforced 15 yards from the NAV49 to the NAV34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 3 yds to the NAVY 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.93

Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 29 yds to the NAVY 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the NAVY 1

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 25

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the NAVY 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 22

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

K'Wan Powell run for 5 yds to the USF 27

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

K'Wan Powell run for 3 yds to the USF 30

3rd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.90

Byrum Brown pass complete to K'Wan Powell for 12 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Byrum Brown pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Byrum Brown pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Byrum Brown pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 21

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 16

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the NAVY 21

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 23

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the USF 34

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the USF 37

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 5 yds to the USF 42

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.97

Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.37

Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 19 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the NAVY 32

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the NAVY 32

4th & 4Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.07

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 22 yds to the NAVY 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Nay'Quan Wright run for 10 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the NAVY 34

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 42

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 45

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 46

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds , Sean Atkins returns for no gain to the USF 12

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.38

Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for no gain to the USF 12

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+88 ydsPPA +7.11

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 88 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.85

Brandon Chatman run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.00

Daba Fofana run for 19 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (Cody Howard) to the USF 36

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the USF 34

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the USF 33

3rd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the USF 25

4th & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -3.02

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the USF 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Byrum Brown pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USF 30

3rd & 4Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.67

Byrum Brown sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the USF 22

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.60

Alex Tecza run for 16 yds to the USF 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the USF 5

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the USF 2

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Blake Horvath run for no gain to the USF 2

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.85

Anton Hall Jr. 2 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

K'Wan Powell run for 4 yds to the USF 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the USF 31

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 7 yds to the USF 43

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.27

Byrum Brown pass incomplete

3rd & 3Sack-15 ydsPPA -1.63

Byrum Brown sacked by Luke Pirris for a loss of 15 yards to the USF 28

4th & 18Penalty+5 yds

Navy Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the USF 33

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 27 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the NAVY 46

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 25

2nd & 8Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.64

Byrum Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 20

3rd & 13Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.12

Byrum Brown sacked by Will Harbour for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 15

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the USF 34

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.27

Brandon Chatman run for 5 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the USF 25

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the USF 22

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Blake Horvath) to the USF 27

4th & 8Field Goal Good+44 yds

Nathan Kirkwood 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Byrum Brown pass incomplete

3rd & 7Penalty+15 yds

BROWN, Byrum pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ATKINS, Sean thrown to the NAV38. PENALTY NAV Pass Interference on PEELE, Dashaun enforced 15 yards to the USF43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.74

Byrum Brown sacked by Donald Berniard Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 40

2nd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 8 yds to the USF 48

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Byrum Brown pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 8

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 10

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 12

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Blake Horvath pass complete to Anton Hall Jr. for 5 yds to the NAVY 17

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 33

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USF 39

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the USF 42

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.01

Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 5 yds to the USF 48

2nd & 5Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.78

Byrum Brown pass complete to Jaden Alexis for 35 yds to the NAVY 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the NAVY 16

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the NAVY 15

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.13

Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 15 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Brandon Chatman run for 9 yds to the NAVY 32

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the NAVY 35

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 39

3rd & 6Rush+24 ydsPPA +3.32

Blake Horvath run for 24 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 8 yds to the USF 29

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the USF 28

3rd & 1Fumble Return Touchdown+70 ydsPPA -10.96

Tramel Logan 70 Yd Fumble Return (John Cannon Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 28

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 32

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+13 ydsPPA -1.48

Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 13 yds Weston Wolff fumbled, recovered by NAVY Xavier McDonald

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +0.90

Alex Tecza run for 28 yds to the USF 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.58

Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 20

2nd & 13Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.01

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 23

3rd & 16Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.58

Tai Lavatai sacked by Andrew Mata'afa and Rashad Cheney for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 26

4th & 19Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Nathan Kirkwood 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 9 yds to the USF 35

2nd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.55

K'Wan Powell run for 11 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.77

K'Wan Powell run for 10 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.54

Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 12 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 6 yds to the NAVY 26

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.00

K'Wan Powell run for 4 yds to the NAVY 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 9 yds to the NAVY 13

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the NAVY 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Michel Dukes 11 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+68 ydsPPA +5.52

Eli Heidenreich 68 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)

0th & 0Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, Illegal Snap on SELF, Brent enforced (Brent Self) to the USF 8

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Byrum Brown pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the USF 31

4th & 4Penalty+15 yds

STOKES, Andrew punt 37 yards to the NAV32, HASSAN, Amin returned 7 yards to the NAV39 (DENNIS, Kendall). PENALTY NAV Roughing the Kicker on ROGERS, Nazir enforced 15 yards from the USF31 to the USF46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 45

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.31

Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the NAVY 34

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.14

Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 4 yds to the NAVY 25

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the NAVY 24

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

K'Wan Powell run for 4 yds to the NAVY 20

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.76

K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the NAVY 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

[SG] Kneel down by USF at NAV19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
47%
32 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
38%
8 plays
27%
11 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
50%
20 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
25%
8 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play