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← Back to GamesNov 18, 2023Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Navy by 5.1

Home Win Probability

Navy 65%

Market (Bovada)

Navy -2

Edge: Navy -2 (3.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 18, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
East CarolinaEast Carolina
00000
NavyNavy
700310

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q407147-010-0
NavyEast Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECTO59ydPUNT527ydPUNT34ydPUNT37ydPUNT32ydTD253ydPUNT38ydTO516ydMISS516ydTO715ydTO2-3ydPUNT33ydTO529ydMISS725ydPUNT38ydPUNT5-1ydPUNT521ydPUNT38ydPUNT615ydPUNT34ydMISS855ydDOWNS4-7ydFG48ydDOWNS519ydPUNT3-11ydDOWNS923ydPUNT34ydEND638yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing East Carolina and Navy
StatisticEast CarolinaNavy
Passing24-3810-11
Pass Yards155102
Rush Yards34174
Total Yards189276
Turnovers42
3rd Down2-136-16
Penalties4-457-35
Possession25:5634:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

East Carolina
passing
Alex Flinn
24/38, 155 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Alex Flinn
12 CAR, 31 YDS
receiving
Chase Sowell
6 REC, 62 YDS
defense
Navy
passing
Xavier Arline
10/11, 102 YDS
rushing
Alex Tecza
24 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Eli Heidenreich
2 REC, 53 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 23

2nd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Javious Bond run for 4 yds to the ECU 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.96

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 10 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Javious Bond run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 34

2nd & 13Pass Interception Return-5 ydsPPA -0.42

Alex Flinn pass intercepted Dashaun Peele return for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 23

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 25

2nd & 8Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.35

Xavier Arline run for 20 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 44

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Xavier Arline pass complete to Amin Hassan for 2 yds to the NAVY 46

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Xavier Arline pass complete to Amin Hassan for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 6 yds to the ECU 26

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Gerald Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 24

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 47

2nd & 3Sack-4 ydsPPA -2.15

Xavier Arline sacked by J.D. Lampley for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 43

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Xavier Arline pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 4 yds to the NAVY 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds, downed at the ECU 4

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Javious Bond run for 2 yds to the ECU 6

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.14

Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for 1 yd to the ECU 7

3rd & 7Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.10

Alex Flinn sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 6

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 47 yds, downed at the NAVY 47

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (Joshua Pena) to the NAVY 42

1st & 15Rush+39 ydsPPA +2.71

Xavier Arline run for 39 yds to the ECU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Alex Tecza run for 19 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 5 yds to the ECU 31

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Brock Spalding) to the ECU 26

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Alex Flinn pass complete to Gerald Green for 3 yds to the ECU 29

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

Alex Flinn run for no gain to the ECU 29

4th & 7Penalty+5 yds

LARSEN, Luke punt 12 yards to the ECU41 out of bounds, clock 00:25. PENALTY NAV Offsides on CRAWFORD, Khalil enforced 5 yards from the ECU29 to the ECU34 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 32

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 31

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Xavier Arline run for 7 yds to the NAVY 38

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.76

Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Alex Tecza run for 11 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-6 ydsPPA -3.46

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 6 yards to the NAVY 48 Xavier Arline fumbled, recovered by ECU Jason Shuford [SG] QB Keeper ARLINE, Xavier rush up the middle for a loss of 6 yards, ARLINE, Xavier fumbled at ECU50 , recovered by ECU SHUFORD, Jason at the NAV48, returned 0 yards to the NAV48, End of Play, clock 12:53.

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.81

Alex Flinn run for 16 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.10

Alex Flinn run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 35

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Alex Flinn run for 3 yds to the NAVY 32

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+49 yds

Andrew Conrad 49 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.19

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 30

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.68

Xavier Arline pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 13 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the ECU 48

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.20

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the ECU 37

2nd & 3Sack-16 ydsPPA -3.93

Xavier Arline sacked for a loss of 16 yards to the NAVY 47

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.28

Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 48

2nd & 11Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.37

Alex Flinn sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ECU 46

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Xavier Arline) to the ECU 49

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the ECU 47

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 16 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 9 yds to the ECU 45

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 4 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.13

Alex Flinn pass complete to Gerald Green for no gain to the ECU 49

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return+15 ydsPPA -1.95

Alex Flinn pass intercepted Mbiti Williams Jr. return for 15 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the ECU 49

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the ECU 46

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.03

Xavier Arline pass complete to Alex Tecza for 8 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the ECU 34

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.04

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 35

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.52

Xavier Arline pass complete to Regis Velez for 10 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Nathan Kirkwood 42 yd FG MISSED

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Amin Hassan run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 31

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 30

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Alex Flinn run for 7 yds to the ECU 37

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.36

Javious Bond run for 4 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Chase Sowell) to the ECU 29

3rd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 33

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Xavier Arline run for 9 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 45

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 48

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Xavier Arline pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 28 yds, downed at the ECU 24

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.77

Alex Flinn pass complete to Desirrio Riles for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 23

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.26

Alex Flinn pass complete to Tyler Savage for 9 yds to the ECU 32

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 51 yds, downed at the NAVY 17

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Eli Heidenreich run for 4 yds to the NAVY 21

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (Ben Purvis) to the NAVY 16

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Xavier Arline pass complete to Daba Fofana for 2 yds to the NAVY 18

3rd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.27

Xavier Arline pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 9 yds to the NAVY 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Xavier Arline run for no gain to the NAVY 27

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the NAVY 31

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Xavier Arline pass complete to Alex Tecza for 1 yd to the NAVY 32

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Javious Bond run for 4 yds to the ECU 35

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 22

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NAVY 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +4.25

Xavier Arline pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 49 yds to the ECU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.19

Alex Tecza run for 13 yds to the ECU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (Joshua Pena) to the ECU 19

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 20

2nd & 16Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.56

Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 25

3rd & 21Rush0 ydsPPA -0.98

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the ECU 25

4th & 21Blocked Field Goal+42 yds

Nathan Kirkwood 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Alex Flinn run for 2 yds to the ECU 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Alex Flinn pass complete to Tyler Savage for 4 yds to the ECU 31

4th & 4Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-13 ydsPPA +0.05

Luke Larsen run for a loss of 13 yards to the ECU 18 Luke Larsen fumbled, recovered by NAVY Adam Walker II [PUNT] LARSEN, Luke rush to the right for a loss of 13 yards, LARSEN, Luke fumbled at ECU20 , recovered by NAV WALKER, Adam at the ECU18, returned 0 yards to the ECU18, End of Play; ECU turnover on downs, clock 10:39.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the ECU 15

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the ECU 13

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the ECU 10

4th & 2Field Goal Good+27 yds

Nathan Kirkwood 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 11 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 4 yds to the ECU 29

2nd & 6Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Alex Flinn sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 5 yds to the ECU 33

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (Brent Self) to the ECU 38

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 39

2nd & 16Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Daba Fofana run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 40

3rd & 17Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the ECU 39

4th & 16Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECU 44

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 19

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.63

Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 10 yds to the ECU 29

3rd & 1Penalty-10 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chase Sowell) to the ECU 24

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Alex Flinn run for 2 yds to the ECU 26

4th & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.81

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 8 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 7 yds to the ECU 41

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Alex Flinn run for 2 yds to the ECU 43

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the ECU 42

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the ECU 40

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the ECU 39

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 39 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.73

Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 21 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Alex Flinn pass complete to Tyler Savage for 8 yds to the ECU 49

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.34

Alex Flinn pass incomplete

3rd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.85

Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 12 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

QB Keeper FLINN, Alex rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the NAV32 (HARBOUR, Will). PENALTY ECU Personal Foul on HALL, Dustyn enforced 15 yards from the NAV39 to the ECU46 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Alex Flinn run for 6 yds to the NAVY 48

2nd & 19Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Alex Flinn pass complete to Gerald Green for 6 yds to the NAVY 42

Situational Analysis

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
22 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
5 plays
29%
7 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
2 plays

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
22 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
13%
8 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
43%
7 plays
43%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
4th