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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2023Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

App State by 8.3

Home Win Probability

App State 69%

Market (Bovada)

App State -7.5

Edge: App State -7.5 (0.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 16, 2023

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
East CarolinaEast Carolina
7147028
App StateApp State
10620743

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-710-710-2116-2129-2836-2843-28
App StateEast Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ASECECASECASECASECASECASASECASECECASASECASECECECTD337ydTD39ydTD975ydTD275ydTO23ydFG1042ydPUNT37ydDOWNS532ydPUNT32ydPUNT33ydPUNT520ydTD34ydPUNT5-5ydTD1157ydTD19ydUncategorized10ydTD23ydTO26ydTD679ydPUNT3-15ydPUNT31ydTD728ydTD65ydDOWNS716yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing East Carolina and App State
StatisticEast CarolinaApp State
Passing19-3317-29
Pass Yards161241
Rush Yards79224
Total Yards240465
Turnovers32
3rd Down2-107-14
Penalties11-803-25
Possession28:3231:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

East Carolina
passing
Alex Flinn
17/31, 158 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
Rahjai Harris
12 CAR, 56 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jhari Patterson
4 REC, 44 YDS
defense
App State
passing
Joey Aguilar
17/29, 241 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Nate Noel
26 CAR, 178 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kaedin Robinson
4 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.34

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 16 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST down

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 25

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mike Edwards III) to the APP 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the APP 46

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.35

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 8 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.93

Joey Aguilar sacked by Mike Edwards III for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 14Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.22

Nate Noel run for 10 yds to the ECU 40

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.32

Kanye Roberts run for 6 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +2.94

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 34 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Alex Flinn pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 3 yds to the ECU 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion+5 ydsPPA +1.49

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jsi Hatfield for a 1ST down Appalachian State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shawn Collins) to the ECU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.38

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 39 yds to the APP 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 7 yds to the APP 18

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.17

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 5 yds to the APP 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the APP 7

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.36

Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 7 yds to the APP 32

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+68 ydsPPA +5.47

Nate Noel run for 68 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 28

2nd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -0.63

Alex Flinn pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 10 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the APP 45

2nd & 14Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.78

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 16 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the ECU 38

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the ECU 31

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.64

Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the ECU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Nate Noel run for no gain to the ECU 24

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the ECU 23

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ECU 19

4th & 5Field Goal Good+36 yds

Michael Hughes 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Michael Hughes kickoff for 65 yds , Javious Bond return for 19 yds to the ECU 19

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 20

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Alex Flinn pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 1 yd to the ECU 21

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 5 yds to the ECU 26

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.42

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 28 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Joey Aguilar run for 6 yds to the ECU 37

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai Jackson

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the ECU 39

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.49

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun Davis

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Hampton Ergle) to the ECU 34

1st & 15Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 1 yd to the ECU 33

2nd & 16Penalty-5 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (Hampton Ergle) to the ECU 28

2nd & 21Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Javious Bond run for 2 yds to the ECU 30

3rd & 19Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.30

Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for 11 yds to the ECU 41

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 12

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the APP 15

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Michael Dipasquale

4th & 7Punt+11 yds

Mitchell Lake punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECU 44 , Jsi Hatfield returns for 11 yds to the ECU 44

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Alex Flinn run for 1 yd to the ECU 45

2nd & 9Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.29

Rahjai Harris run for 19 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jhari Patterson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Javious Bond

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the APP 5

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan Horn

3rd & 6Interception Return Touchdown+8 ydsPPA -6.76

Antoine Jackson 8 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jonathan Jones) to the APP 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 15 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli Wilson

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

Appalachian State Penalty, Chop Block (-15 Yards) to the APP 25

2nd & 25Rush0 ydsPPA -0.08

Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 25

3rd & 25Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.09

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 10 yds to the APP 35

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Mitchell Lake punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 23

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 24

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 4 yds to the ECU 28

3rd & 5Penalty-10 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECU 18

3rd & 15Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.97

Alex Flinn run for 16 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Alex Flinn pass complete to Brock Spalding for 7 yds to the ECU 41

2nd & 3Rush+28 ydsPPA +1.79

Javious Bond run for 28 yds to the APP 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the APP 41

1st & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Alex Flinn run for 7 yds to the APP 34

2nd & 13Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.21

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 30 yds to the APP 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Brock Spalding

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+34 yds

Laith Marjan kickoff for 60 yds , Milan Tucker return for 34 yds to the APP 31 East Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the ECU 46

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Kanye Roberts run for 9 yds to the ECU 37

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Kanye Roberts run for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Michael Hughes kickoff for 61 yds , Javious Bond return for 28 yds to the ECU 32

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.93

Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for no gain to the ECU 32

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.17

Mason Garcia run for 13 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Mason Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 3 yds to the ECU 48

2nd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.13

Mason Garcia sacked by Markus Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the ECU 41

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Shotgun Flinn,Alex pass complete short left to Sowell,Chase for 0 yards to the ECU25 (Funderburk,Tyrek) PENALTY ECU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Pearce,Richard) 5 yards from ECU25 to ECU20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Alex Flinn run for 8 yds to the ECU 28

2nd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -0.63

Alex Flinn pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds to the ECU 45

2nd & 6Fumble Return Touchdown+57 ydsPPA -10.10

Shavon Revel 57 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +3.56

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 35 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Laith Marjan kickoff for 65 yds , Milan Tucker return for 21 yds to the APP 21

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.82

Nate Noel run for 26 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.24

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 17 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the ECU 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 24

2nd & 11Penalty-14 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-14 Yards) to the ECU 10

3rd & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.01

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Shane Calhoun

4th & 25Punt+23 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 50 yds , Kaedin Robinson returns for 23 yds to the ECU 37

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the ECU 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun Davis

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan Horn

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mitchell Lake punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Jsi Hatfield at the ECU 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 7 yds to the ECU 19

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.18

Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 23

2nd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.86

Alex Flinn pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 14 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Alex Flinn pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 3 yds to the ECU 40

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jsi Hatfield

3rd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -0.60

Alex Flinn pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.36

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for no gain to the ECU 19

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the ECU 18

3rd & 9Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.36

Nate Noel run for 17 yds to the ECU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Nate Noel run for no gain to the ECU 1

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to David Larkins

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+36 yds

Michael Hughes kickoff for 51 yds , Jsi Hatfield return for 36 yds to the ECU 29 East Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ECU 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 31

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 35

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.64

Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 6 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.14

Alex Flinn pass complete to Javious Bond for no gain to the ECU 41

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 44

3rd & 7Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.18

Alex Flinn sacked by Andrew Parker Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the ECU 33

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the APP 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.83

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 16 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY APP False Start (Murphy,Jack) 5 yards from ECU49 to APP46. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the APP 49

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 5 yds to the ECU 46

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.42

Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 15 yds to the ECU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.24

Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the ECU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ECU 17

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.48

Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the ECU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the ECU 6

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Alex Flinn run for 14 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.55

Alex Flinn pass complete to Chase Sowell for 17 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Chase Sowell

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jhari Patterson

3rd & 10Penalty-15 yds

East Carolina Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-15 Yards) to the ECU 41

4th & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.32

Alex Flinn pass incomplete to Jaylen Johnson

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ECU 37

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Nate Noel run for no gain to the ECU 37

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.48

Joey Aguilar run for 8 yds to the ECU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ECU 25

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ECU 21

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.28

Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ECU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.53

J. Aguilar takes a knee

2nd & 12Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.40

J. Aguilar takes a knee

3rd & 17Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.39

J. Aguilar takes a knee

Situational Analysis

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
24%
21 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
27%
15 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
25%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

App State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
35%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
60%
10 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play