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← Back to GamesOct 7, 2023Week 6

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 24.6

Home Win Probability

Massachusetts 7%

Market (Bovada)

Massachusetts +19

Edge: Toledo -19 (5.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 7, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ToledoToledo
10721341
MassachusettsMassachusetts
7143024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-37-107-1721-1721-2424-3124-3824-41
MassachusettsToledo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MASTOLMASTOLMASTOLMASTOLMASTOLMASTOLMASTOLMASTOLMASTOLMASTOLMASTOLTD675ydFG855ydPUNT34ydTD762ydPUNT1145ydTD1080ydTD171ydPUNT35ydTD682ydTO10ydPUNT34ydPUNT38ydMISS49ydTD365ydPUNT50ydTD458ydFG843ydTD646ydTO533ydFG1262ydMISS1463ydEND733yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Toledo and Massachusetts
StatisticToledoMassachusetts
Passing15-2320-31
Pass Yards139272
Rush Yards375167
Total Yards514439
Turnovers11
3rd Down9-155-13
Penalties7-556-35
Possession28:1731:43

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
15/23, 139 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dequan Finn
13 CAR, 172 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jerjuan Newton
4 REC, 43 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Massachusetts
passing
Taisun Phommachanh
20/31, 272 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kay'Ron Adams
20 CAR, 157 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Anthony Simpson
7 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 1 yd to the MASS 24

2nd & 11Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Adams,Kay'Ron rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UMass28 (Culpepper,Judge) PENALTY UMass Holding (Atwood,Josh) 10 yards from UMass24 to UMass14. NO PLAY.

2nd & 21Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for 5 yds to the MASS 19

3rd & 16Rush+32 ydsPPA +3.55

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 32 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the TOL 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.11

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for no gain to the TOL 47

3rd & 8Rushing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +5.48

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 47 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 25

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.38

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 27 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.69

Jacquez Stuart run for 20 yds to the MASS 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.42

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for no gain to the MASS 23

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the MASS 20

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez Stuart

4th & 7Field Goal Good+38 yds

Luke Pawlak 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MASS 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 4 yds to the MASS 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Christian Wells

4th & 6Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Junior Vandeross III at the TOL 38

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.11

Peny Boone run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the MASS 45

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep right to Dottin,Jaden PENALTY UMass Offside 5 yards from UMass45 to UMass40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the MASS 37

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the MASS 33

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Toledo False Start (Rogers,Devan) 5 yards from UMass33 to UMass38. NO PLAY.

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.83

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the MASS 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan rush left for 5 yards gain to the UMass24, out of bounds at UMass24 PENALTY Toledo Holding (Rosi,Nick) 10 yards from UMass29 to UMass39. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.86

Dequan Finn run for 18 yds to the MASS 21

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.28

Peny Boone run for 21 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Luke Pawlak kickoff for 64 yds , Shawn Harris Jr. return for 7 yds to the MASS 8

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 9 yds to the MASS 17

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Taisun Phommachanh run for no gain to the MASS 17

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.50

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MASS 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to George Johnson III

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Phommachanh,Taisun pass complete short left to Johnson,George for 45 yards to the Toledo34 (Ford,Zachary), out of bounds PENALTY UMass Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Garcia,Cole) 5 yards from UMass21 to UMass16. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.45

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 24 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the MASS 45

2nd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.11

Taisun Phommachanh sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 39

3rd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.99

Taisun Phommachanh run for 12 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the MASS 49

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Anthony Simpson

3rd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 4 yds to the TOL 47

4th & 8Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the TOL 21

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.16

Dequan Finn pass complete to CC Ezirim for 9 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd to the TOL 31

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Peny Boone

3rd & 9Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.70

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 28 yds to the MASS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.86

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the MASS 32

2nd & 1Rush+29 ydsPPA +0.91

Junior Vandeross III run for 29 yds to the MASS 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+5 yds

Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the MASS 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden Dottin

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.95

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Luke Pawlak kickoff for 50 yds , Greg Desrosiers Jr. return for 14 yds to the MASS 29

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +5.78

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 71 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+30 yds

CJ Kolodziey kickoff for 57 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 30 yds to the TOL 38

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the TOL 39

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the TOL 46

3rd & 2Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Boone,Peny rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Toledo49 (Roberts,Jerry) PENALTY Toledo Holding (Rogers,Devan) 10 yards from Toledo46 to Toledo36. NO PLAY.

3rd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the TOL 43

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.88

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 13 yds to the MASS 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MASS 32

2nd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.43

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 17 yds to the MASS 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Anthony Simpson run for 3 yds to the TOL 48

2nd & 7Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.48

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 17 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 31 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.92

Dequan Finn pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the TOL 45

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 6 yds to the TOL 39

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Mark Pope

4th & 6Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the TOL 2

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the TOL 10

3rd & 1Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA +0.20

Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 1 yd to the TOL 9

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Christian Wells

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Phommachanh,Taisun pass incomplete deep right to Campiotti,Gino PENALTY Toledo Offside (Holt,Deshawn) 5 yards from Toledo50 to Toledo45. NO PLAY.

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Christian Wells for 4 yds to the TOL 41

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.17

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Christian Wells

4th & 1Field Goal Missed+58 yds

Cameron Carson 58 yd FG MISSED

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the TOL 42

2nd & 3Penalty-15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep middle to Newton,Jerjuan PENALTY Toledo Chop Block (Boone,Peny) 15 yards from Toledo42 to Toledo27. NO PLAY.

2nd & 18Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.80

Dequan Finn run for 17 yds to the TOL 44

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+56 ydsPPA +5.30

Dequan Finn run for 56 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Luke Pawlak kickoff for 60 yds , Greg Desrosiers Jr. return for 16 yds to the MASS 21

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.59

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for no gain to the MASS 21

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.67

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 14 yds to the MASS 35 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jacquez Stuart) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MASS 36

3rd & 27Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 3 yds to the MASS 21

4th & 24Punt0 yds

CJ Kolodziey punt for 37 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the TOL 42

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 46

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden Dottin

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Toledo False Start (Rogers,Devan) 5 yards from Toledo46 to Toledo41. NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.87

Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the MASS 49

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +5.79

Peny Boone run for 49 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 6 yds to the MASS 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 9 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for no gain to the MASS 40

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.79

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 22 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Phommachanh,Taisun pass complete deep right to Johnson,George for 0 yards to the Toledo38 PENALTY UMass Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Atwood,Josh) 5 yards from Toledo38 to Toledo43. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the TOL 45

2nd & 17Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Isaac Ross for 6 yds to the TOL 39

3rd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the TOL 32

4th & 4Field Goal Good+49 yds

Cameron Carson 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+52 yds

Cameron Carson kickoff for 63 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 52 yds to the MASS 46

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the MASS 47

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the MASS 40

3rd & 4Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Dequan Finn run for 18 yds to the MASS 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the MASS 16

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the MASS 20

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.32

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 20 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for 15 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 3 yds to the MASS 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.89

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 15 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the TOL 42

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.80

Taisun Phommachanh pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Peny Boone run for 12 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.76

Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the TOL 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.76

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 12 yds to the MASS 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden Dottin

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the MASS 39

3rd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.90

Dequan Finn run for 15 yds to the MASS 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the MASS 18

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry Stephens

4th & 4Field Goal Good+36 yds

Luke Pawlak 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Luke Pawlak kickoff for 55 yds , Shawn Harris Jr. return for 20 yds to the MASS 45 Toledo Penalty, Defensive holding (Andre Fuller) to the MASS 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Isaac Ross for 5 yds to the MASS 25

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MASS 27

3rd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.55

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 9 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Gino Campiotti for 9 yds to the MASS 45

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.44

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Mark Pope

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.02

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MASS 44

4th & 2Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Phommachanh,Taisun pass incomplete deep right to Harris Jr.,Shawn PENALTY Toledo Offside (Taylor,Terrance) 5 yards from UMass44 to UMass49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Gino Campiotti

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.18

Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Shawn Harris Jr. for 19 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Mark Pope

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.86

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 12 yds to the TOL 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Christian Wells run for no gain to the TOL 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Gino Campiotti

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the TOL 17

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+34 yds

Cameron Carson 34 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 20

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 18

3rd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.75

Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 14 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Jacquez Stuart run for 12 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Jacquez Stuart run for 8 yds to the MASS 48

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.29

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the MASS 48

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the MASS 47

Situational Analysis

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
45%
11 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
83%
6 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Massachusetts

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
35%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
64%
11 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
4th